"NATO has no immunity": how does the alliance counter the nuclear threat from Russia

Russia and NATO constantly talk about the need for dialogue. But this is in words. In fact, the parties are constantly exchanging accusations of aggressive actions and coming up with new countermeasures. The pyramid of “answers to answers” ​​has already reached such a height that the question “who started first?” loses its meaning.

Фото: Depositphotos

In the new round of confrontation, NATO has developed a whole range of measures. Military exercises in close proximity to Russia's borders are only part of this strategy.

On Monday, the large international NATO exercises Tobruq Legacy-60 started just 19 kilometers from the Kaliningrad region. The military from the 19 of the member countries of the North Atlantic Alliance will work out anti-missile and air defense operations in Poland.

In addition to Poland, NATO simultaneously conducts several exercises in Eastern Europe: in Latvia, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and the Baltic Sea.

Фото: Depositphotos

And although the current exercises have been planned for a long time, they are taking place against the backdrop of a change in the alliance’s military strategy. This happened for the first time in recent decades.

The reason is new challenges and the nuclear threat from Russia, as stated by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. He explained that the new military concept will help achieve “total security” and ensure stability.

Events in Crimea, as they say in NATO, have shown that containment of Russia requires a special approach. To this end, the alliance has developed a four-point strategy.

1. Increased pressure on Moscow. Through sanctions and bases

First of all, we are talking about political pressure - that is, sanctions. There are differences of opinion in the European Union about both the appropriateness and effectiveness of sanctions against Russia, so NATO is very pleased that sanctions have been maintained.

Another component of this point is strengthening the defense of the allies. For example, the alliance has increased its permanent base in Romania, and NATO communications and information science exercises have just ended in the Romanian city of Otopen. The Alliance also continues to provide assistance to both Ukraine and Georgia. All this, as the North Atlantic bloc believes, increases psychological pressure on Moscow and strengthens NATO’s position in Europe.

“NATO has not started any major process of militarization. There is a situation that has developed in connection with Russia’s actions. NATO is engaged in collective defense and does exactly what allies expect from the alliance,” explains NATO adviser on Russia Robert Pschel.

At the same time, members of the alliance emphasize that they would not like to isolate Russia.

“We do not seek confrontation, but we cannot ignore the violation of international rules. To improve our relations, Moscow must begin to respect international law. Russia has most recently used force against its neighbors in the Kerch Strait, engaged in cyber attacks, and interfered in democratic processes. In addition, Russia is violating one of the most important arms control treaties, the INF Treaty,” US State Department spokesperson Vanessa Ecker said in a conversation with the BBC.

In Brussels, it is noted that the four battalions of the alliance, stationed in Eastern Europe, cannot be compared with the three divisions that Moscow has deployed in the western and southern districts of Russia in response to NATO actions.

2. Anchorage in the Black Sea. “It does not belong to one country”

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The essence of the second point of NATO’s new strategy is to strengthen the alliance’s presence in the Black Sea. We are talking about patrol aircraft, frigates, destroyers and other warships.

A few years ago, the alliance considered the Black Sea region stable. The priorities then were the situation in the Baltic Sea. The events of recent years (for example, the annexation of Crimea by Russia) forced NATO to reconsider its priorities, and the Baltic went into the background. This alignment, NATO officials admit, will continue for at least the next few years.

“This is a long period in which the Black Sea region will be unstable, with a very strong Russian military presence,” said James Appathurai, a spokesman for NATO’s secretary general. “We have a long list of exercises that NATO and allies will conduct in the Black Sea. Of course, this is done mainly for reasons of military expediency, but also for political reasons and for the purpose of demonstrating force.”

NATO's latest exercise in the Black Sea, Sea Shield, is not only part of a package to help Ukraine, but also an opportunity to improve NATO's awareness of the situation in the Black Sea.

Russia reacted quickly. Firstly, the Federation Council made a statement from which it follows: violation of the procedures for the passage of Ukrainian ships through the Kerch Strait is fraught with the outbreak of a military conflict with Russia. “Ukraine’s attempts to circumvent these procedures carry the risk of a military conflict between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, in which NATO may also be involved,” the statement said.

But Russia's response was not limited to words. Simultaneously with NATO, ships of the Black Sea Fleet conducted combat training in the Black Sea, and naval aviation helicopters went on alert, “working out measures to withdraw forces from the attack of a mock enemy.”

Representative of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of Ukraine Vadim Skibitsky believes that one of the challenges for the country’s navy and for the NATO group in the Black Sea is a possible provocation or some kind of incident during exercises that could lead to a military conflict: “Of course, this is a threat to the Ukrainian sides,” he says.

NATO officials are expressing concern and irritation that Russia is “simulating a nuclear attack on the alliance countries” during its exercises.

“The Black Sea does not belong to just one country,” NATO adviser on Russia Robert Pschel emphasized in a conversation with the BBC, clearly hinting at Moscow’s actions. “And we will remind you of this.”

3. Allied aid packages. "Is not "EEurovision"

The priorities are again Ukraine and Georgia. Joint exercises are an opportunity for Georgia to get closer to NATO, where the country has long been striving. Georgian officials have repeatedly said that integration into the alliance is a guarantor of the country's security.

The last joint exercise with NATO took place in Georgia in March. The country's leadership has traditionally emphasized that the exercises are not directed “against any third country.” But, according to the Georgian Ministry of Defense, one of the goals of these exercises is to test the readiness to respond to threats in countries that are not NATO members.

As for Ukraine, we are talking both about interaction at the level of special services and about strengthening the naval forces - this area is given special attention due to the loss of Crimea, where most of the Ukrainian military fleet was based. In total, the NATO assistance plan contains 40 points on which support will be provided to Kyiv.

“NATO generally works like this: we do not approach any security issues artificially, from the series “it would be nice to involve something somewhere.” Any conversation in NATO begins with an assessment of all threats. And this means that all countries present and exchange their points of view, information and so on. There are concrete facts: we know that, for example, Ukrainian sailors were captured. Or we are seeing how Russia is essentially making a huge military base out of Crimea,” says NATO official Robert Pschel. “We analyze all these facts and actions and figure out how to respond correctly.”

True, the aid package for Ukraine was approved under the previous president of the country. Will the relationship between Kiev and NATO under Vladimir Zelensky? The president himself at a recent meeting with the foreign ministers of Sweden and Poland assured his colleagues that Ukraine would continue the policy of deepening integration with NATO. True, some experts, having analyzed the first public statements by Zelensky, expressed the opinion that he may be less persistent and consistent in dialogues with Brussels than his predecessor.

“We don’t have Eurovision here to give points. Free elections were held in Ukraine, the people made this decision. The NATO Secretary General has already spoken on the phone with Zelensky. And our intentions regarding Ukraine have not changed in any way,” confirms Pshel. “We must admit that Kyiv is in a difficult situation. There is a conflict that was not started by Ukraine. People are still dying. We wish Zelensky good luck. A new person has taken office and we are ready to work with him.”

4. Confronting cyber threats. Six minutes to solutionsе

Фото: Depositphotos

The damage from cyber attacks is comparable to a real military strike, according to NATO. Only one such attack can damage the economy in the billions of dollars, paralyze critical infrastructure and suspend the work of the largest companies.

“NATO has no immunity [from external attacks]. Every day we record suspicious activities directed against the alliance's cyber systems. With the development of new technologies - artificial intelligence, machine learning and deep fakes - cyber threats will become more dangerous,” said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

Alliance member states agreed to consider that any cyber attack falls under the 5 article of the NATO constituent document (an attack on one or more countries of the alliance will be considered an attack on NATO as a whole, and each of the participating countries should provide assistance).

So cyberspace equated to the land, sea and air.

Cyber ​​Threat Tracking is handled by a special Cyber ​​Operations Center, but in full force it will start working only in the 2023 year.

“Those who commit cyberattacks must know that they will be exposed. As it was when the Dutch authorities, with the help of British experts, prevented a Russian attack on the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) in The Hague,” Stoltenberg said at a NATO conference on cyber defense held at the end of May.

The Russian side then stated that the equipment that was found in the possession of the detained Russians was intended for “testing the embassy’s information systems in the interests of analyzing the security of computer networks in connection with the increasing attempts at cyber penetration into Russian government institutions.”

Britain, like other NATO countries, keeps its statistics. In his latest statement on this topic, the country's foreign minister, Jeremy Hunt, directly accused Russia of organizing cyber attacks.

“According to our assessments, Russian intelligence services are looking for vulnerabilities in critical government infrastructures in many countries. As part of this global campaign, they are also seeking to gain access to central government networks. Over the past 18 months, the National Cyber ​​Security Center has provided 16 of our NATO allies—and many more non-NATO countries—with information about Russian cyber activity on their soil,” Hunt said, noting that NATO countries need to work together to counter Russia’s cyber campaign. carrying out cyber attacks around the world.

Russia responded that “the head of the Foreign Office has returned to his usual bellicose anti-Russian rhetoric, which has nothing to do with reality.”

Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen agrees that the alliance needs to take a closer look at cyber threats. True, Rasmussen believes that the NATO Cyber ​​Operations Center should begin to operate at full capacity before 2023. “We need to speed up. And the number of this unit should be significantly higher. We must also give NATO command the power to order the use of defensive cyber weapons in response to an external attack,” he said in an interview with the BBC.

The ex-Secretary General believes that NATO should also think about electronic intelligence in order to counter new threats and, as a result, make important decisions faster. “In the 1990s, it took NATO six months to decide to launch a military operation in the Balkans. It took us six days to decide to take action in Libya. I think in the future we will only have six minutes to make a decision. The NATO command must have the right and ability to quickly make decisions of this level,” Stoltenberg said.

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