Israel, Iran agree to ceasefire after 12 days of war
On June 23, 2025, US President Donald Trump announced on his Truth Social platform that Israel and Iran had reached an agreement on a “complete and final ceasefire,” reports The Guardian. As he writes CTV News, hundreds of people became victims of the conflict.
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"CONGRATULATIONS EVERYONE!" Trump wrote on Truth Social. "Israel and Iran have fully and finally agreed to a COMPLETE CEASE-FIRE."
According to Trump, the ceasefire was supposed to begin overnight between Monday, June 23 and Tuesday, June 24, with a halt to attacks from Iran, followed by a few hours of Israel's own offensive operations. However, neither Israel nor Iran have officially confirmed the agreement, and early Tuesday morning, the Israeli military reported new rocket fire from Iranian territory. By the morning, the intensity of Israeli strikes on Iran had decreased, but the sustainability of the ceasefire remains in question.
On the subject: US shells Iran's nuclear facilities: what is known about unique mega-bombs and large-scale diversionary maneuvers
12-day war
The conflict, which Trump has dubbed the “12-day war,” began on June 13 and has become one of the most tense episodes in the standoff between Israel and Iran in recent years. It began with a series of Israeli airstrikes aimed at preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. The strikes targeted Iranian nuclear facilities, including the underground complex at Fordow.
In response, Iran launched missile strikes on Israeli territory and on Monday, June 23, carried out a limited attack on the US Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, home to the largest US military force in the Middle East.
The attack, according to American and Qatari officials, was coordinated in advance with the United States and Qatar to avoid casualties and minimize the risk of escalation.
Israeli strikes hit key targets in Tehran, including the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Basij militia and the gates of Evin Prison, where political prisoners are held.
On June 22, the United States joined the conflict by striking three Iranian nuclear sites with bunker buster bombs. That prompted Iran to retaliate against a base in Qatar, where it said it fired 19 medium-range missiles, 18 of which were intercepted. Trump called the strike a “weak response.” He emphasized that there were no American casualties and thanked Iran for giving advance notice of the attack.
By the morning of July 24, despite continued Iranian missile launches into Israel, Israeli strikes on Iran had ceased after 4 a.m. Tehran time, coinciding with an ultimatum from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. He said Iran was prepared to halt military action if Israel stopped its “illegal aggression” by a specified deadline, but a final decision would be made later. In Israel, air raid sirens sounded in Jerusalem, where a missile was intercepted, but by the morning the situation began to stabilize.
Background to the conflict
Tensions between Israel and Iran date back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which left Iran as Israel’s main regional adversary. Key points of conflict include Iran’s nuclear program, Tehran’s support for groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, and Israeli operations against Iranian forces in Syria and Lebanon.
Since the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) in 2015, the situation has been up and down. In 2018, the US under Trump withdrew from the JCPOA, leading to Iran resuming uranium enrichment and tightening sanctions.
By 2025, Western intelligence estimates suggest Iran is close to developing nuclear weapons, which has become a catalyst for Israeli strikes. In early June, Israel began an operation to destroy key nuclear sites, particularly Fordow, which is considered the most secure due to its underground location.
The US involvement in the conflict was a surprise turn and drew criticism from international leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, who called the US strikes "without legal basis".
Expert Opinions
Experts are divided on the prospects for a cease-fire and its long-term implications. Georgetown University political scientist Michael Hanson says Trump’s statement reflects his desire to cement his role as a peacemaker, but the reality is more complex.
"Trump is probably exaggerating the extent of the agreement to present it as his victory. The lack of confirmation from Israel and Iran suggests that the agreement, if there is one, is fragile and could be broken at any moment," he noted.
Amir Saidi, director of the Center for Middle East Studies in Washington, emphasized that Iran found itself in a difficult situation: “Tehran could not help but respond to strikes on its nuclear facilities, but its attack on Qatar was symbolic in order to save face and avoid a full-scale war.”
Saidi believes Iran may be interested in talks, especially if the US offers sanctions relief, but much depends on how badly its nuclear programme has been damaged.
Experts are divided on the extent of damage to nuclear facilities. IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said it was impossible to assess the damage to Fordow, but the US and Israeli attacks likely caused significant damage. Iranian spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi said the nuclear material had been removed in advance, but independent analysts questioned the veracity of that claim.
“If Fordow is truly disabled, it would be a serious blow to Iran’s ambitions, but recovery is possible if key centrifuges are not destroyed,” said Stanford nuclear expert Lisa Wang, noting that it would be a major factor in the talks, which Trump envoy Steve Witkoff is rumored to lead.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday, June 22, that Israel was close to achieving its goals, and anonymous Israeli officials hinted that the operation would soon be completed.
However, the rhetoric of some government members, such as Minister Gila Gamliel, who called for the overthrow of the Iranian regime, points to divisions within the coalition. Tel Aviv University political scientist Rachel Cohen believes that “Netanyahu is balancing between pressure from radicals in his cabinet and the pragmatic need to avoid a protracted war. A ceasefire could be a tactical move to secure gains and avoid costs.”
London School of Economics economist Anna Levy analyzes Iran’s decision not to close the Strait of Hormuz: “This is a strategic choice by Tehran to avoid a global economic crisis and not to give Russia additional leverage through rising oil prices. Stable prices mean that Moscow will not receive excess profits to finance the war in Ukraine, and the world’s attention will remain focused on the Eastern European conflict.”
Prospects and challenges
The ceasefire announcement raised hopes for de-escalation, but its sustainability remains in doubt given the lack of official statements from Israel and Iran, as well as the early morning missile launches on Tuesday, June 24. The talks, likely to begin under US auspices, will be complex, with Iran demanding security guarantees and sanctions relief, and Israel demanding tough restrictions on Tehran’s nuclear program. Qatar’s role as a mediator, given its experience in resolving regional conflicts, could be decisive.
Iran's symbolic attack on Qatar and the lack of American casualties suggest that Tehran is seeking a face-saving exit from the conflict. However, domestic pressure in Iran, particularly from the IRGC, could complicate peace initiatives.
For Israel, the ceasefire could be seen as a victory if Iran's nuclear ambitions are truly weakened. But Netanyahu's political opponents are already criticizing him for "not being decisive enough."
The international community is closely monitoring developments. The evacuation of about 250 American citizens from Israel and the resumption of Qatar Airways flights signal a gradual stabilization in the region.
If the ceasefire holds, it could open a window for negotiations, but any misstep could lead to further escalation.
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Hundreds have died as a result of the conflict
In Israel, at least 24 people were killed and more than 1000 wounded, according to preliminary data. Israeli strikes on Iran have killed at least 974 people and wounded 3458, according to the Washington-based group Human Rights Activists.
Among the dead, 387 civilians and 268 security forces personnel have been identified.
The United States evacuated about 250 American citizens and their immediate family members from Israel on government, military and charter flights that departed over the weekend, a State Department official said.
There are an estimated 700 American citizens in Israel, most of whom hold dual US and Israeli citizenship.
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