Trump is losing support from a key group of his supporters: his approval rating is falling

American politics is increasingly divided by education level: more educated voters gravitate toward Democrats, while less educated ones lean Republican. It was white voters from the latter group who became the backbone of Trump's coalition. Exit polls show that about two-thirds of this group voted for him in three presidential elections. CNN.

If there is one group of voters associated with the political rise and eventual return of Donald Trump, it is white Americans without a college education.

But as Trump's approval ratings fall, there are growing signs that his near-unwavering hold on these voters is waning.

On the subject: Who do Republicans want to see as president after Trump?

This is already starting to look like a risk factor for Republicans in the 2026 midterm elections, especially given that more and more of this group is dissatisfied with the president's economic policies.

While Trump won 66-67% of the vote among white voters without a college degree in all three campaigns, most recent polls show that more than half of them now disapprove of his job performance.

Thus, in a CNN poll, the share of those dissatisfied is 51%, in a Fox News poll - 51%, in a NPR/PBS/Marist College study - 52%, in a Pew Research Center poll - 52%, and in a recent CBS News/YouGov poll - 54%.

There are also more favorable data for Trump—for example, a New York Times/Siena College poll shows 44% dissatisfied. But for now, this is more of an exception.

The scale of Trump's decline in this group appears unprecedented. During his first term, the share of dissatisfied whites without a college education at times approached half, but never exceeded 47%.

Moreover, the decline occurred quite rapidly. In February 2025, 63% of this group approved of Trump (according to CNN), now it's 49%. The approval balance has shifted from +26 to -2.

CBS polls show an even sharper decline: from 68% in February last year to 46% now.

It's difficult to pinpoint a single cause for this decline, but economics clearly plays a key role.

Although in the 2022 election and the 2024 presidential election, only 32% of white voters without a college degree voted for Democrats and for Kamala Harris:

56% of them believe that Trump's policies have worsened the economic situation in the country, according to a CNN poll.

67% say the war with Iran has negatively impacted their financial situation.

56% believe Trump's trade tariffs have hit their wallets, while only 20% see them as beneficial.

According to CBS, 60% believe Trump's policies are worsening the economy in the short term.

41% believe that it will also cause harm in the long term - this is more than the 35% who expect a positive effect.

Most respondents in the CBS poll also say Trump pays little (13%) or no attention (44%) to their concerns and needs.

The main political question is how these sentiments will translate into votes in the 2026 midterm elections, where Trump himself will not be on the ballot.

It's unlikely this group will defect to the Democrats. But if Republican support among these voters drops even below 60%, it would be an unprecedented result in the Trump era.

In every election, Trump has led Democrats among these voters by 34–37 percentage points. In the 2022 midterms, Republicans gained a 34-point lead. The party's worst performance in the Trump era—24 points (61% to 37%)—came in the 2018 election, when Democrats won control of the House of Representatives.

The gap has now narrowed to about 17 points, based on the average of the so-called "consolidated ballot" polls from CNN, Fox, Marist and the New York Times.

On average, Republicans get 55%, Democrats - 38%.

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With more than five months to go until the election, Trump still has time to regain some of his lost support among his long-loyal audience.

But for now, both Trump and his party face serious challenges in perhaps their most important constituency.

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