By the year 2100 New York could go under water

Until now, it was believed that if the rate of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere did not decrease, by 2100, the sea level would rise by no more than a meter. However, as stated in the new joint study of British and American scientists, this estimate is very modest.

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After analyzing the rate of reduction of the Greenland and Antarctic ice cover, scientists came to the conclusion that the real rate of rise in the water level in the world's oceans can be almost twice as high.

As a result of climate change, London, New York and Shanghai could be threatened by flooding. Hundreds of millions of people will have to find another place to live.

The main threat to the global economy

Global temperatures have been rising for many years. Back in 2016, the United Nations named global climate change as the main threat to the global economy.

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Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2019, UN Secretary General António Guterres confirmed that climate risks remain the most important.

“I think we are behind in this race,” he said. — Climate change is faster than us. And the paradox is that the reality turns out to be worse than we expected, as all recent events indicate.”

How quickly the sea level rises

According to the calculations of scientists published in the Journal of the American National Academy of Sciences, in the worst case scenario, if CO2 emissions to the atmosphere continue, the global average temperature will increase by 2100 degrees by 5, and the world ocean level will rise from 62 to 238, see

This can lead to the fact that about 1,79 million square kilometers of land will be under water, and 187 millions of people have to change their habitat.

With an expected increase in global temperatures at 2 degrees, Greenland’s ice sheet is the largest source of sea-level rise. However, as the temperature rises further, larger Antarctic ice sheets will play a role in global change.

"Experts believe there is a small but statistically significant chance that West Antarctica will move into a highly unstable state, and parts of East Antarctica will also begin to contribute," Professor Bamber said. However, the likelihood of this only increases when global temperatures rise by 5 degrees.

Who can suffer?

Rising sea levels at a projected rate will affect all countries with low-lying coast, including the United States, areas of Britain and Europe, as well as a significant part of the territories of South and East Asia. Such major cities as London, New York and Shanghai could be threatened with flooding.

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According to estimates by one of the authors of the study, Professor Michael Oppenheimer of Princeton University, about half a billion people live in low-lying deltas.

Scientists at Cornell University have even developed a program in which artificial intelligence, based on location data, can calculate how many centimeters your home can flood by 2050.

“For comparison, as a result of the Syrian crisis, about a million refugees resettled in Europe. This is almost 200 times less than the number of people who would have to move if sea levels rose by just 2 meters,” explained Professor Bamber.

Scientists and glaciologists also expressed concern that current methods for studying the effect of glaciers on changes in world ocean level do not take into account all factors affecting the rate of reduction of their area.

What can be done?

Experts note that it is not too late to take measures to stop the main cause of changes in global sea level, reducing the amount of harmful substances released into the atmosphere and thereby slowing down global temperature changes.

Despite the fact that the probability of events developing according to the worst-case scenario is quite low - only 5% - we should not discount it, scientists warn.

“If I told you there was a one in 20 chance of being hit by a car while crossing the road, you wouldn't get anywhere near it,” Professor Bamber concludes.

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