Full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah: the world is on the verge of a new confrontation that no one wants

In May, Amos Hawksteen, US President Joe Biden's envoy to resolve tensions between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah group, said: "What worries me constantly is the possibility of a mistake or an accident... For example, if a missile hits a bus with children or to another civilian facility. This could force politicians in both countries to take retaliatory actions that could lead to war. Although both sides understand that a full-scale war is not beneficial to anyone.” And such a “bus” was hit on the evening of July 27 in the Golan Heights, reports CNN.

Photo: iStock.com/Diy13

The only way to fight back is to strike back

The rocket, which Israel said was fired by Hezbollah from southern Lebanon, hit a football field in the Druze town of Majdal Shams. Twelve children aged 10 to 16 died during the training. Hezbollah denies involvement in the strike. Will Hawksteen's fears of a full-scale war now be justified?

According to Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz, this is likely.

“We are approaching the point of starting a full-scale war with Hezbollah,” he said in an interview with Israeli television on the evening of July 27.

On the subject: What is the likelihood of a third world war, and why can’t we avoid it?

The US appears to support the response to some extent.

“We support Israel's right to protect its citizens from terrorist attacks,” said Secretary of State Antony Blinken, noting that the United States does not want to “escalate the conflict.”

Israel's response has so far been relatively muted. More blows are likely to follow.

“We are tired of high-flown speeches and empty words accompanied by half-hearted actions,” said former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. “The only way to stop all of this, the only way to keep our enemies from attacking us... is to fight back and strike at them.” There is no other way."

The international community has been trying for months to reduce tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. Iran's strongest ally is believed to have at least 150 missiles pointed south. There are grave concerns about a possible war that would devastate Lebanon and cause serious damage to Israel.

In addition, as Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, admitted, “this risks a situation unprecedented in this region—a major regional war that could involve the Persian Gulf.” Miller warns that this course of events could lead to a direct clash between the United States and Iran.

Staying on the edge of the abyss

Yet over the past nearly 10 months of fighting, Israel, Hezbollah and Iran have always pulled back from what seemed like the edge of the abyss. In January, Israel killed a senior Hamas leader in Beirut. A full-scale war did not begin. In April, Israel killed a senior commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCHG) in Damascus. In response, Iran launched unprecedented attacks on Israel. A full-scale war did not begin.

The status quo, of course, cannot continue either. Tens of thousands of Israelis were forced to flee their homes. Large settlements in northern Israel resemble ghost towns. A similar picture is observed in southern Lebanon. The best way to avoid a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, according to Blinken, is to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza. Negotiations on this issue resumed on July 28.

But this will only be a temporary solution. Israel wants to completely eliminate the Hezbollah threat by pushing it back to the Litani River (a river in southern Lebanon) in accordance with the UN Security Council resolution that ended the last major clash in 2006.

“If the international community does not remove Hezbollah from the border, Israel will,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant said last December.

Thus, despite politicians' statements, fears and escalations, the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah continues to smolder rather than flare up. Nobody seems to want this war. But, as Hawksteen warned, “Wars in world history have started even when leaders didn’t want them to. They had no choice."

Türkiye is ready to side with Palestine

Meanwhile, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan warned on July 28 that Turkey could intervene in events in Israel the same way it has previously done in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh. However, he did not specify what type of intervention he had in mind, reports Reuters.

“We have to be very strong so that Israel cannot do these ridiculous things to Palestine. We entered Karabakh, we entered Libya, and we can do something similar with them,” Erdogan proclaimed at a Justice and Development Party (AK) meeting in his hometown of Rize.

“There is no reason why we cannot do this... We must be strong to be able to take these steps,” he stressed in a televised address.

Representatives of the AK Party did not respond to calls from Reuters seeking more information about Erdogan's comments. Official Israel also remains silent.

Erdogan was apparently referring to previous steps taken by Turkey in some international conflicts.

Thus, in 2020, Turkey sent a military contingent to Libya to support the UN-recognized Government of National Accord of Libya.

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Libyan Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, who heads the Government of National Unity in Tripoli, is supported by Turkey.

Turkey has denied any direct involvement in Azerbaijan's military operations in Nagorno-Karabakh but said last year it would use "all means," including military training and weapons modernization, to support its close ally.

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