Will Trump's victory be a disaster for Ukraine?

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Today, in my opinion, it is impossible to say with 100% certainty what Trump’s policy on Russia and Ukraine will be - there are too many different factors with different weights, which also influence each other. Here they are (the list is not complete).

Factors against Ukraine

First, Trump has been clear in favor of improving relations with Russia, which cannot be done without giving in to the Kremlin's interests in Ukraine—for example, by recognizing the annexation of Crimea or withholding military or financial support from Ukraine.

Secondly, Trump approvingly spoke of dictators, and the idea of ​​dividing the world into spheres of influence may be psychologically close to him. Barack Obama’s policy toward Ukraine can be criticized as weak, but the idea of ​​spheres of influence and interference of one nation in the internal affairs of another was unacceptable to him.

Third, Trump may have business interests in Russia, the full extent of which we do not know.

Fourth, Russia likely influenced the election results in Trump's favor, as evidenced by the cyberattack on the Democratic National Committee server, Wikileaks leaks, and, according to a recent publication, the creation and dissemination of false information by the Russians against his opponent Hillary Clinton.

Fifth, Paul Manafort, who lost his job as Trump's campaign manager at least in part because of the Ukrainian law enforcement investigation, maintains a relationship with Trump and also lives in Trump Tower.

Sixth, Trump's first appointments are a bad signal for Ukraine. National Security Advisor Michael Flynn participated in the celebration of the tenth anniversary of Russia Today and appeared on the air of this channel, where he defended the idea that the United States and Russia should jointly fight ISIS, which is the main argument of the Kremlin in favor of normalizing relations with the United States with all the privileges on which they are counting.

Factors in favor of Ukraine

First, there is a strong, 2-party pro-Ukrainian majority in Congress, which sets US foreign policy. Senators McCain and Graham have already prepared a strategy to combat Trump's pro-Russian policies, and Senator Cardin has prepared a bill to strengthen sanctions against Russia for its aggression in Ukraine, Syria and cyber attacks in the United States. Even before Trump publicly announced his Russia policy, “legislative trenches” were being dug and “walls” were being “built” on Capitol Hill to ensure that the policy remained in line with containing the Kremlin’s aggressive actions.

Secondly, most posts require approval in the Senate. McCain and others have already made it clear that there will be no pro-Russian Secretary of State.

Thirdly, not only among legislators, but also in the US military and intelligence community there is an understanding of the danger that Russia represents.

Fourthly, Trump easily changes his position. Politico counted 15 on a dramatic change in position by the newly elected president in 15 days.

Fifth, Trump does not always keep his commitments and pay debts. Even if he is personally obliged to the Kremlin, this does not mean that he will repay. One of Clinton’s main arguments during the campaign was that Trump “throws” contractors and workers. Why can't the Kremlin become such a contractor?

Sixth, Moscow itself may not benefit from a thaw in American relations—there is no one to blame for economic failures and no one to rally the people against.

Seventh, Russians always remain Russians, and Trump can sharply react to what he regards as rudeness or a dirty trick, and develop a policy regarding Russia at 180 degrees. As Congressman Peter King told me, as soon as Trump recognizes the entire scope of Russian actions in the world, he will immediately change his mind about Putin.

Eighth, Trump is said to have stopped attending intelligence briefings, but elected Vice-President Mike Pence diligently attends. This may be a signal that the vice-president will be the curator of foreign policy, and Mike Pence may become the same lobbyist of Ukraine in the Donald Trump Administration, like Joseph Biden in the Barack Obama Administration.

The original blog is published on page author to facebook.

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See also:

Trump discussed with the transfer of Apple production in the US

Poroshenko talked with Trump about the Russian aggression

How Trump split the Ukrainian diaspora in the US

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