The United States and Russia began negotiations about Ukraine, NATO and international tension: so far everything is not going very smoothly

US and Russian officials arrived in Geneva on January 10 to begin a series of talks this week. Tensions over Ukraine remain higher than ever, but both sides have already warned that the prospects for a settlement are slim. CNBC.

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In recent months, Russia has been stepping up its military presence on the border with Ukraine, raising fears that Russian President Vladimir Putin is planning an invasion of the country. Russia denied such claims, claiming that it has the right to deploy troops anywhere on its territory.

During discussions last month, Putin asked his American counterpart, President Joe Biden, for reassurances that Ukraine would not be admitted to NATO, as he sees any expansion of the Western military alliance further east as a security threat. Biden declined to give such assurances.

Speaking in the US on January 9, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said he did not expect any progress in relations with Russia as long as tensions on the border with Ukraine remain high.

“We're really going to make progress in these negotiations starting next week, but I don't think we're going to see any breakthroughs, we're going to listen to their concerns, they're going to listen to our concerns and we'll see if there's a case for progress. It is very difficult to see progress in the face of continued escalation,” Blinken said.

He added that "Russia has put a pistol with 100 servicemen near its borders to the head of Ukraine," and this number may increase in the shortest possible time.

“So, if we see a de-escalation, if we see a decrease in tensions, this is an environment in which we can make real progress and, again, solve problems on both sides,” he said.

The essence of the negotiations

The world is watching the negotiations for any signs of a thaw in the frigid relationship between the US and Russia.

Following Russia's annexation of Crimea into Ukraine in 2014, interference in the US elections in 2016, participation in a nerve attack in the UK in 2018 and the creation of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, tensions have increased significantly on a number of fronts.

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White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said the United States and its allies will raise the issue of election interference, arms deals, Ukraine and other issues in security negotiations with Russia.

Speaking to reporters at a White House briefing, Psaki said: “Russia has certainly raised the issue of European security. Let's be clear: over the past two decades, it was Russia that invaded two neighboring countries, intervened in many elections, used chemical weapons to assassinate foreign soil, and violated international arms control agreements. ”

“We and our allies will raise these issues and others with Russia in the coming days and weeks, and, of course, as part of these negotiations. And, of course, we cannot forget that Russia’s military occupation continues in Ukraine,” she said, referring to the ongoing conflict in the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine, where pro-Russian troops have been fighting Ukrainian forces for several years.

US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman is negotiating on behalf of the United States, and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov will be the lead negotiator from Moscow.

On January 9, Ryabkov announced that during the talks he would seek legal guarantees that NATO would not expand east or deploy weapons systems in Ukraine.

Speaking with the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti, he said Russia "would not make concessions under pressure" during the talks and said Russia was disappointed with the signals the West was sending ahead of the talks.

High rates

Security discussions are the first topic of conversation this week in a series of meetings between Russia and the West, with talks between the Russian Council and NATO continuing on 12 January in Brussels and at the meeting of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe in Vienna on 14 January. ...

Biden's negotiations with Russia are closely watched by Fred Kempe, president and chief executive officer of the Atlantic Council, who noted on January 10 that this week of negotiations "may be the most important week for Biden in his entire presidency."

“The history of Europe knows that despots threaten more benevolent players. We've seen this picture before. But we must remind and show who the real aggressor is here. It's an information game, but at the same time, Putin can actually take military action if he wants. We are truly on the verge of war. If he wants war, Putin can make it happen. This will cause terrible damage to Russia, it will cause irreparable damage to Europe,” he said on January 10.

Not everyone is so pessimistic about the prospects for negotiations and broader relations between Russia and the West.

Christopher Granville, managing director of political research at TS Lombard, said on January 10 that the agreement takes precedence over limiting military deployment in Europe, namely several agreements signed during the Gorbachev era in the latter years of the Cold War.

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One such agreement, signed in 1990, dealt with arms control and contained specific provisions and restrictions on regional deployment, with Granville arguing that such an agreement could be reached again.

“If the parties can agree that they are not going to do forward deployments either near Ukraine on the Russian side or near Russia on the western side, then they can make a deal. It has been done before, why can’t it be done again,” he said on January 10.

“Well, the answers, I guess, are that the atmosphere is absolutely toxic, there is no trust and everyone dislikes each other, but this has been done before and I think the growth potential is underestimated,” he added.

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