Global warming is causing the world to experience more rainfall, but the climate is also becoming drier.
If annual precipitation is "compressed" into a few heavy downpours, the resulting water shortage is limited—both for groundwater and for ecosystems. Soil can only absorb a limited amount of moisture, and the remaining water remains on the surface and quickly evaporates, explains USA Today.
Precipitation increasingly comes in the form of heavy downpours, interspersed with longer periods of drought. When rain falls heavily and all at once, the soil doesn't have time to absorb the water.
The work on this was published on May 13 in the scientific journal Nature.
Study leader Corey Lesk, who worked on the study at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire, explained it this way: regardless of the total amount of precipitation, if rain and snow fall in sharp bursts separated by long dry periods, less water remains on land – in soil, lakes, and underground springs.
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It's "like forcing the earth to drink from a fire hose."
Scientists analyzed global precipitation data for 1980–2022 and concluded that rainfall distribution is becoming increasingly uneven, regardless of whether a region's climate is wet or dry.
"It's not just the amount of water that matters, but how it's delivered," noted study co-author Justin Mankin, a geographer at Dartmouth College. He described this concentration of precipitation as "like forcing the earth to drink from a fire hose."
Heavy rainfall means more dry periods, and excess water accumulates on the surface and evaporates faster.
Essentially, wherever it occurs, the more precipitation is "packed" into short periods, the less water remains available for the land.
Is climate change to blame?
Scientists believe so.
Lesk says the study didn't directly test the extent to which these changes are driven by climate, but the results are consistent with theory: as warming occurs, the distribution of precipitation over time changes.
"Warming increases the likelihood of land drying, regardless of whether overall precipitation increases or decreases," he explained.
The study's authors believe that as global temperatures rise, precipitation will become increasingly concentrated. At a temperature increase of 3,6 degrees (the Celsius scale is used by default in climate studies), Ed. note:) About 27% of the world's population could experience abnormally dry conditions on land, even if overall precipitation increases.
"This is an adverse effect," says Lesque, a professor at the University of Quebec in Montreal. "It shows how climate change will impact water resources."
Mankin added: "The concentration of precipitation under warming conditions will lead to a drying of the land surface. The only question is whether the total amount of precipitation will be able to compensate for this effect."
A challenge for water resources management
Alternating periods of heavy rainfall and prolonged drought will seriously complicate water supply management, especially in arid regions where water storage is essential.
According to Leska, this creates additional stress on water management systems, but at the same time, understanding the mechanism itself provides an opportunity to better take it into account in drought planning and forecasting.
Previously, precipitation concentration was practically not taken into account, largely because its significance was simply underestimated.
The study suggests a new way of looking at water resources: it's not just the amount of precipitation that falls annually that matters, but also how it's distributed over time. Scientists have long predicted that warmer temperatures will increase rainfall, but whether this will translate into more available water remains an open question.
Warning for the Western US
According to the study, the western United States, west of the Mississippi River, experiences some of the highest levels of this "concentration" of precipitation. In the Rocky Mountain region, approximately 20% of annual rainfall occurs as intense downpours.
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California has faced this problem before: after prolonged droughts, the state is hit by "atmospheric rivers"—powerful streams of moisture that bring torrential rain. Under these conditions, authorities must decide whether to release water from reservoirs to absorb new precipitation, without being certain how long the influx of moisture will last.
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