The next pandemic will come from melting glaciers where hundreds of viruses and bacteria are frozen

The next pandemic may not be caused by bats or birds, but by matter in melting ice, according to new data. An analysis of an Arctic lake suggests viruses and bacteria trapped in the ice could wake up and infect wildlife, reports TheGuardian.

Photo: IStock

Genetic analysis of the soil and lacustrine sediments of Lake Khazen, the largest freshwater lake in the Arctic highlands, suggests that the risk of virus spread when the virus first infects a new host may be higher near melting glaciers.

The findings show that as global temperatures rise due to climate change, it becomes more likely that viruses and bacteria trapped in glaciers and permafrost could awaken and infect local wildlife, especially as their range also shifts. closer to the poles.

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In 2016, for example, an anthrax outbreak in northern Siberia that killed one child and infected at least seven others was linked to a heat wave that melted the permafrost and exposed the infected carcass of a reindeer. Before that, the last outbreak in the region was in 1941.

To better understand the risk associated with frozen viruses, Dr Stephan Aris-Brosou and colleagues at the University of Ottawa in Canada collected soil and sediment samples from Lake Hazen, near which small, medium and large volumes of meltwater flow from local glaciers.

They then sequenced the RNA and DNA in these samples to identify signatures that closely match those of known viruses, as well as potential animal, plant, or fungal hosts, and ran an algorithm that estimated the likelihood of these viruses infecting unrelated groups of organisms.

A study published in Proceedings of the Royal Society B found that the risk of viruses spreading to new hosts was higher in places close to places where large amounts of glacial melt water flowed, a situation that is becoming more likely as the climate warms.

The team did not count the number of previously unknown viruses identified (which they plan to do in the coming months) and did not assess whether these viruses are capable of causing infection.

However, other recent studies have shown that unknown viruses can and do remain in glacial ice. For example, last year researchers at Ohio State University in the US announced they had found the genetic material of 33 viruses, 28 of which are new, in ice samples taken from the Tibetan Plateau in China. Based on their location, the age of the viruses is estimated at about 15 years.

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In 2014, scientists at the French National Center for Scientific Research in Aix-Marseille managed to revive a giant virus they had isolated from Siberian permafrost, making it infectious again for the first time in 30 years. The study's author, Jean-Michel Claverie, said at the time that exposing such ice sheets could be a "recipe for disaster."

However, Aris-Brosou's team warned that predicting a high risk of spread is not the same as predicting actual side effects or pandemics. “As long as viruses and their “bridge vectors” are not present in the environment at the same time, the likelihood of dramatic events remains low,” they write.

On the other hand, climate change is predicted to change the range of existing species, which could bring new hosts into contact with ancient viruses or bacteria.

“The only conclusion we can confidently draw is that as temperatures rise, the risk of infection in that particular environment increases,” Aris-Brossu said. — Will this lead to pandemics? We don't know for sure."

It is also unclear whether the host-change potential identified in Lake Hazen is unique to lacustrine sediments. “To the best of our knowledge, this could be as likely as a host change caused by viruses from the mud in your local pond,” said Arvin Edwards, director of the Interdisciplinary Center for Environmental Microbiology at Aberystwyth University.

“However, we urgently need to explore microbial worlds across our planet to understand these risks in context,” he said. “Now two things are absolutely clear. First, the Arctic is warming rapidly, and the main risks to humanity stem from this impact on our climate. Secondly, diseases from other places are entering vulnerable communities and ecosystems in the Arctic.”

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