Russia entered the war in Syria: what does it mean

Today, Russia launched its first air strike in Syria, near the city of Homs.

As a result of the air strike, 33 civilians died, including three children and one volunteer of the Syrian civil defense, writes «The Independent».

Witnesses of the raids also report that the strikes are being carried out in territory not controlled by Islamic State militants. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that the strikes are being carried out on IS military targets.

On the eve of the Federation Council agreed on the use of air forces of Russia in Syria. According to the head of the Russian presidential administration, Syrian President Bashar Asad turned to Vladimir Putin with a request for military assistance.

Previously appeared messages that Russia demanded that the United States remove planes from Syria, but Russian officials did not give geographic information about where they planned to strike.

Vox singled out six facts that you need to know about the Russian invasion of Syria and which will help explain what is really happening and what Russia’s entry into the war means.

1. The Russian intervention is partly (and perhaps entirely) directed against Iran.

Once Russia was a world power with puppets in almost every corner of the Earth. But now she doesn’t have many allies outside the countries of the former Soviet Union. Syria is one of the last partners who came close to Moscow in 1970, when Bashar's father, Hafez al-Assad, was in power.

Syria has long balanced between two sponsors - Iran and Russia - often preferring the latter as a more powerful and significant partner. However, things began to change in 2011 and 2012, when civil war broke out in Syria. Assad was counting on both the political defense of Russia against the Western invasion and the Russian armament. But in the end he had to rely more on Iran, which provided Assad with not only weapons, but also military officers and infantry.

As the military operations unfolded in Syria, Bashar al-Assad listened less and less to Russia and more and more to Iran, since Tehran actually fought for it.

It seemed that Moscow was losing its last bridgehead in the Middle East, and it was Iranians who were pushing it away, not the Americans or the British.

Wishing to maintain the last foothold in the Middle East, Moscow had to increase its influence on Syria, especially on the Assad government. The military invasion again turns Russia into a key player within the country.

2. The purpose of the invasion may be a lucrative deal with the West.

There is a theory that, in addition to confirming and defending Russian influence in Syria, Putin may expect that the invasion will give him the trump cards that he can use to bargain for a good deal with the United States and Europe.

This theory has two versions. One of them says that Putin wants to create additional problems in Syria, threatening the interests of the West there and forcing the West to make concessions. According to another version, Putin believes that he can offer Russian military aid and intelligence information in the fight against Islamic extremists in Syria in exchange for concessions from the West.

3. This could have the opposite effect, making Russian troops a lightning rod for extremist groups.

Several jihadist organizations are fighting in Syria, the largest of which are ISIL and Jabat al-Nusra (the local branch of al-Qaeda), and they are fighting each other for ideological legitimacy. It is believed that one of the groups that can better position itself as a representative of Sunni jihadism will attract more volunteers and donations, and thus will conquer more territory on the battlefield.

In 1979, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan led jihadists from all over the Muslim world to take up arms to fight non-Muslim invaders. The same effect was caused by the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. The scale of the Russian intervention is much smaller, and the reaction is also likely to be less acute, but jihadist organizations can still take the opportunity and target Russian troops.

This is not just putting Russians at greater risk. This often gives fragmented extremist groups a reason to rally, to create temporary alliances - even if they continue to fight each other in other regions of the country.

4. Russia doesn’t have much to escalate

Some comments about the Russian intervention sound a concern that, although the initial military presence is relatively small, Russia may be moving to a larger invasion that can really change the course of the war as a whole.

But geography will hinder this. From the point of view of logistics, it is not possible for Russia to significantly increase the number of its troops and increase its presence in Syria. Russia must somehow make military flights to Syria, but for this it is necessary to cross the countries that prohibit such flights.

5. For Syria, nothing changes ...

The press has a little exaggerated the importance of Putin’s actions in Syria. Partly because we are talking about Putin, who has become something of an obsession for Americans. They are ready to see in his weaknesses a manifestation of force and present him to the often short-sighted policy of opposition as a product of a strategic genius.

The exaggeration of the importance of the Russian escalation is partly due to the fact that people in Washington see it through the prism of various existing opinions. People who consider Obama to be an inept weakling often seek to expose Putin to the exact opposite - a strong leader whose courageous determination humiliates our hapless leader. People who are eager for the United States to intervene in Syria’s affairs are perhaps more inclined to see the decisive factor in the Russian troops. This would confirm their view that an external invasion could change the situation.

But, ultimately, a turning point in the Syrian civil war has not yet come. These forces are not enough to turn the tide of the war - especially given the fact that four forces continue to wage war among themselves: Assad, Kurdish groups, ISIL and rebels who do not belong to ISIL.

6. ... unless Russia begins to bomb the rebels, who are supported by the US

In view of the above, the conflict may escalate in one case: if Russian aviation in Syria begins to attack the Syrian rebels, supported by the United States. This will create a conflict between the US and Russia in Syria. And although it is unlikely to be reminiscent of a clash on foreign territory in the style of the Cold War, it will still create an additional degree of danger and instability in relations between the two leading world nuclear powers, writes "REVIEW.PRESS".