Hurricane season in full swing: experts warn of new storms

10 September marked the peak of the hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean, but the season is officially considered open until November 30, and mid-October often brings several tropical storms and hurricanes to the United States. Not the fact that this year will be an exception, say meteorologists.

Фото: Depositphotos

Experienced meteorologists AccuWeatherheaded by hurricane expert Dan Kotlowski, predicts two to four tropical storms, of which one or two may become hurricanes after Joyce’s tropical storm.

Of the season's ten tropical storms, five became hurricanes. Three of them - Alberto, Florence and Gordon - made landfall in the United States. Florence is still considered the only major hurricane (Category 3 and above) in the basin. Back in April of this year, AccuWeather predicted 12 to 15 tropical storms, 6 to 8 hurricanes and 3 to 4 land storms during hurricane season. Due to the possibility of El Niño, the numbers changed slightly in mid-summer to 10-12 tropical storms and 5-6 hurricanes.

“There are several factors we consider, including current conditions, El Niño status and air movement over the tropics,” Kotlowski says.

Photo: AccuWeather

El Niño is a warm phase of surface water temperature in the Pacific Ocean. When El Niño becomes strong, air currents intensify and stimulate more tropical activity over the Pacific Ocean. At the same time, westerly winds tend to move from North America across much of the Atlantic Basin. These strong winds typically suppress tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and western Atlantic Ocean.

“The expected El Niño during the autumn-winter season is delayed, so technically we are now in a neutral phase,” the expert clarifies. “That's one of the reasons we've seen a flurry of tropical storms and hurricanes over the last couple of weeks in the Atlantic and Pacific. The El Niño delay was a caveat that we mentioned in the original hurricane forecast and summer update.”

Another parameter tracks the slow wave of rising air, which can lead to storms that can develop into tropical phenomena, being above warm water and in the right conditions. The air mass moves from west to east around the equator. This parameter is known as the Madden Oscillation - Julian, or MDO for short.

“The MDO is expected to enter a phase that will support rising air masses over the Atlantic Basin starting next week,” Kottlowski said. This could lead to another surge of tropical activity in the second half of September and early October.

AccuWeather meteorologists still believe El Niño will develop this fall, bringing hurricane season to an official end in late October and November. “There is a possibility of another direct impact from a tropical storm or hurricane in the United States during the remainder of the season,” the expert said.

Is there a storm alertness right now?

Storm Isaac was dispelled by destructive winds over the western Caribbean Sea. And although it will not develop, the moisture it brings along with the former tropical depression from the eastern Pacific Ocean may increase rainfall in Texas this weekend.

“There are several near-term events that AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring as potential for tropical storm formation in late September,” Kotlowski says.

One elemental system is located above the mid-North Atlantic and contains part of the moisture of the Florence storm.

Photo: AccuWeather

Florence's circulation has dried up in this area, but some of its remaining moisture could spawn a tropical storm and possibly a hurricane during the last week of September. Other "pieces" of Florence are expected to fall across the British Isles this weekend, and some may wander off the US Atlantic coast early next week. But due to the winds, most likely there will be no heavy showers or thunderstorms.

Another offspring of this same moisture, Tropical Depression Eleven, formed east of the Leeward and Windward Islands in the Caribbean late Friday. The depression is expected to dissipate before reaching the islands, and the only concern is the rough surf on the eastern beaches.

Photo: AccuWeather

Meanwhile, a new tropical wave has just formed in Africa and is expected to move westward - something it will likely continue to do throughout next week.

“If this latest tropical wave remains south of the damaging winds, it could develop and approach the Windward and Leeward Islands next week,” Kotlowski said.

“Even though we have passed the peak of the season, the season itself is still in full swing,” the expert adds.

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