The most vulnerable coastal city in the world: what will happen to Miami by 2040

Over the next two decades, rising sea levels, storm surges and strong winds could be more damaging to the state of Florida than any period in its history, and destroy the state’s economy in the amount of $ 1 trillion, says a new report quoted Scientific American magazine. The coastline will be predominantly affected - Miami has been named the most vulnerable coastal city in the world.

Фото: Depositphotos

A new study by the Resources for the Future (RFF) Economic Analysis Center shows that “100-year floods” can now occur every few years, rather than once a century, in many places in the US, endangering an additional 300 homes, 000 miles of roads , 2500 schools and 30 hospitals.

In addition, Miami has been called the “most vulnerable large coastal city in the world” due to the risk of dangerous winds, storm surges, coastal flooding and rising sea levels.

“Huge numbers of people will feel direct climate impacts in their lives. This is very, very important, and it points to why public policy needs to start mitigating risks now,” said Daniel Raimi, a senior fellow at RFF and a faculty member at the Johns School of Public Policy. Gerald R. Ford at the University of Michigan.

The findings, presented in a 70-page, graphics-heavy report, are based on the work of the Climate Impact Lab, a consortium of scientists, economists and other experts dedicated to measuring the true costs of global climate change. The impact projections are based on three different climate scenarios - "moderate", "higher" and "extreme" - associated with future greenhouse gas emissions.

On the subject: Climate change: scientists warned of the threat of flooding homes around 1 billion people

The report also looks at various policy prescriptions that will help reduce these risks, including carbon pricing mechanisms that will help the United States switch from carbon-intensive energy and transport fuels to cleaner alternatives.

“Addressing climate change requires upfront costs,” said Raimi and report co-authors Amelia Keys and Cora Kingdon. - But what if they didn’t cope with this task? Then the costs are likely to be much larger and longer.”

The effects of uncontrolled climate change will be widespread in Florida, and its large cities will bear a heavier burden due to their high population and population density.

For example, in Miami Dade County and the Tampa Bay region, the strongest effects of rising sea levels will be felt, which is projected to rise from 2040 to 8 inches (more than 12-20) by 30. Nearly half a million Floridians live less than 3 feet (91 cm) above. Experts said regular floods threatening property worth $ 145 billion are possible in the region.

Representatives of the RFF claim that parts of the Florida Keys that are already facing chronic flooding from tides and small hurricanes may be abandoned. Florida Panhandle, a zone that has long been considered less vulnerable to climate warming, will actually face the same effects as other regions, Raimi said.

“Several major tourist attractions, including the Everglades, Biscayne National Park and Miami Beach, are mostly located on land less than three feet above the high water mark and could be completely submerged by the end of the century,” RFF said. .

The analysis also studies climate change and mortality rates in Florida. Under a moderate emissions scenario, the effects of climate change could increase this by 3,8 deaths per 100 Florida residents per year, or about 000 additional deaths per year by 1000.

Raimi said Florida has taken significant steps under the leadership of Governor Ron DeSantis to prepare the state for changing conditions, but the magnitude of the risks of climate change will require national and even international policies to avoid the worst consequences.

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He said most of the state’s greenhouse gas reductions since 2000 have been driven by market efforts, including the switch from coal to natural gas by electricity companies.

Even if carbon emissions quickly decline after 2020, experts argue that states like Florida will still face the effects of stronger hurricanes, rising sea levels, and other changes associated with the existing high level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

“Climate change is not a black and white situation. This is not an asteroid hitting Earth,” Raimi said. “But we know there will be serious consequences.” It's important to know where we are vulnerable so we can make informed decisions."

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