Ukrainian offensive on Kursk: Russian territory occupied for the first time since World War II
On August 6, Ukrainian forces crossed the border and headed to the Kursk region. A week later, Ukraine has advanced some 30 kilometers into the region and now controls 100 square kilometers of Russian territory. More than 000 residents from 100 settlements fled. Global media describe the operation as "bold", "ambitious" and "significant". What can be said for sure is that she has once again covered Russian President Vladimir Putin with shame, they write ABC News и Business Insider.
Photo: Oleg Zabielin | Dreamstime.com
The Kursk operation showed that after almost 900 days of a full-scale invasion, surprises were still possible. But will it have an impact on the overall development of military operations?
How Ukraine did it
The August 6 attack took even observers in the West, including the United States, by surprise.
Matthew Sussex of the ANU Center for Strategic and Defense Studies said Ukraine had done a good job of keeping the operation secret. The Center for Strategic and Defense Studies (CSDS) is a research institute affiliated with the Australian National University, ANU. CSDS specializes in the study of international security issues, strategic studies and defense policy.
“It is clear that the Ukrainians were holding forces in reserve to prepare for the operation,” Sussex said.
Ukraine, having sent several of its most combat-ready brigades to one of the most poorly defended sections of the border with Russia, acted quickly. Mobile groups, having crushed checkpoints and field fortifications along the 245-kilometer border, broke through in armored vehicles.
In Sumy, which borders Kursk, reporters witnessed a steady stream of armored personnel carriers and tanks moving toward Russia.
Strategist and retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan said an attack with a highly mobile force was necessary to break through enemy defences.
“This is different from the Russian foot attacks on Kharkov in recent months,” he said.
The operation was supported by air defense forces. Drones have been widely used to strike Russian military equipment, and electronic warfare systems have jammed Moscow's drones and disrupted military communications.
How Russia reacted
As Professor Sussex noted, there were suggestions that Russian intelligence knew about the plan, but high command considered it incredible.
Moscow's army deployed reserve troops, tanks, aircraft, artillery and drones to stop the Ukrainian advance. And Russia's ally Belarus said it was increasing the number of troops on its border with Ukraine. According to Minsk, Ukrainian drones flew into Belarusian airspace.
Over the course of a week, Moscow was unable to push back Ukrainian forces. Although the Ukrainian Armed Forces' progress has slowed down, they continue to move forward.
The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Alexander Syrsky, said at a meeting of the Headquarters on August 12 that his forces now control 1000 square kilometers of territory.
The amount of Russian territory it says Ukraine has seized in a matter of days is almost equal to the area Moscow has seized in Ukraine this year.
“The fighting continues virtually along the entire front line,” he emphasized, adding that “the situation is under our control.”
Syrsky's estimate suggests that Ukrainian gains over the past week are approaching the total area of land captured by Russian offensives since January.
The acting governor of the Kursk region, Alexey Smirnov, reported to Putin that Ukrainian forces had advanced 12 km into the region along a 40 km front and currently controlled 28 Russian settlements.
Earlier, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated that Russian troops entered into battle with Ukrainian troops in the area of the villages of Tolpino and Obshchy Kolodez, which are approximately 25 km and 30 km from the Russian-Ukrainian border.
By comparison, the Russian offensive on Kharkov this year advanced about 8 km into Ukrainian territory.
Russia evacuated residents and declared a state of emergency in three border regions. More than 100 people were evacuated, according to Russian authorities.
On August 12, the governor of the border Belgorod region, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said that the evacuation began from the Krasnaya Yaruga region due to “enemy activity on the border.”
What are the goals of Ukraine
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said in a recent address that Ukraine’s actions to “transfer the war to the territory of the aggressor” are an attempt to “restore justice.”
The exact objectives of the operation remain unclear, and the Ukrainian military appears to maintain a policy of secrecy.
Professor Sussex noted that Kursk is not a particularly strategically important region, but there is a large nuclear power plant there. Military analysts believe that the main goal of the invasion is to divert large numbers of Russian troops from the front line in the eastern Donetsk region.
Russian troops, who have huge numerical superiority and control 18% of Ukraine's territory, have advanced along a 1000 km front this year.
Putin said that Russia, despite the invasion at Kursk, would continue its offensive in eastern Ukraine.
Zelensky adviser Mikhail Podolyak believes cross-border attacks will force Russia “to begin to understand that the war is slowly penetrating into Russian territory.”
In his opinion, such an operation will improve Kyiv’s position in future negotiations with Moscow.
Professor Sussex admits that Ukraine may try to capture large numbers of Russian troops for a prisoner exchange, but this is unlikely to be its main goal.
Thus, the overall purpose of the invasion is not yet clear. Analysts speculate that Ukraine may be trying to relieve some of the pressure on its forces elsewhere along the vast front line, gain leverage for potential territorial negotiations with Russia, or even simply humiliate Moscow and boost morale in Kyiv.
What does this mean for the conflict?
Major General Ryan described the operation as a "big turnaround" for Ukraine.
He said that "the Ukrainians have made a very significant effort to restore the status quo and change the narratives about Ukraine's prospects in this war."
The big question now is whether Ukraine can hold on to Russian territory and for how long.
The expectation, according to Major General Ryan, was that Russia would “get its act together” and bring more ground and air forces into the fight.
Professor Sussex argues that Ukraine took a risk by entering Kursk, but has “to a certain extent” already succeeded in changing the dynamics of the conflict.
“It is very significant that Ukraine can occupy significant areas of Russian territory,” he admitted.
The next few weeks will be crucial.
Russia may be forced to redirect large amounts of resources to fighting and securing its borders.
“It will be difficult for Ukraine to control large areas of Russian territory for a significant amount of time,” Professor Sussex said. “However, if they have captured a significant part of the territory, it will take considerable effort for the Russians to dislodge them from there.”
Turning point in the war
Russian forces occupied about 108 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory as of December 163, 31, according to Mitch Belcher, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War. By August 2023 of this year, this figure had increased to 11 square kilometers.
“We estimate that today Russian troops have occupied an additional 1175 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory,” he said on August 12. However, the key question is whether Ukraine can maintain its recent gains.
“We are grateful to all soldiers and commanders for their resilience and decisive actions,” Zelensky said on August 12 in a Telegram.
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Some experts have suggested that the Kursk operation temporarily gave Ukraine the battlefield initiative in one area of the front line while challenging Russia's overall initiative in the entire theater of operations.
ISW experts wrote on August 11 that "Russia's in-theater initiative since November 2023...has forced Ukraine to expend materiel and manpower in defensive response operations."
“However, the Ukrainian operation in the Kursk region forced the Kremlin and the Russian military command to react and transfer forces and assets to the sector where Ukrainian forces launched attacks,” they said.
How the situation will develop remains to be seen. John Kirby, a spokesman for the White House National Security Council, told reporters last week that the Biden administration has been in contact with its Ukrainian counterparts about the ongoing operation.
“We are working to better understand what they are doing, what their goals are, what their strategy is,” he said on August 9.
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