Storm Rafael Strengthens to Hurricane, Heads for US Coastline
Storm Rafael made landfall in the Cayman Islands in the western Caribbean on the evening of November 5 with strong winds and heavy rain. The Category 1 hurricane is expected to continue strengthening before making landfall in Cuba on Wednesday, November 6, according to CNN.
Photo: Mariusz Burcz | Dreamstime.com
Rafael is the 11th hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Forecasters warn that uncertainty about where the storm will head and when it will enter the Gulf of Mexico is greater than usual. It is possible that Rafael, which had maximum sustained winds of nearly 5 mph (130 kph) late on Nov. XNUMX, will touch down on the Gulf Coast this weekend or skip it and head toward northeastern Mexico.
Residents in these areas will need to monitor the news closely. Forecasts should become clearer over the next two days.
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What is certain is that the storm will weaken as it approaches the Gulf and will not be as strong as Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the lower and middle Florida Keys by November 6. The Caribbean, however, will face the worst of the storm.
As of the morning of November 6, Raphael's path looks like this.
Screenshot from the National Hurricane Center website
Storm hits Caribbean
Hurricane and tropical storm warnings were issued for much of Cuba and the Cayman Islands as Rafael began to pass through the Cayman Islands on the evening of November 5. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) advised that Cayman Islanders should be prepared for dangerous storm surge and damaging waves.
The storm will "rapidly intensify" over the next 24 hours and will become a Category 2 hurricane when it makes landfall in western Cuba on November 6, according to the NCC. Hurricane-force winds hit parts of the Cayman Islands on the evening of November 5 and will hit western Cuba on November 6.
In addition, Rafael's strong winds will cause a significant storm surge, with flooding expected to reach up to a meter in the Cayman Islands and up to 3 meters above normal tide levels in western Cuba.
Rafael could bring rainfall of 76 to 152 millimetres (XNUMX to XNUMX inches) from Jamaica to western Cuba, raising the risk of flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in Jamaica's mountainous regions.
The U.S. State Department has advised Americans in Cuba to leave now, before Tropical Storm Rafael arrives. The department has asked U.S. citizens who were planning to travel there to reconsider their plans. Americans are prohibited from traveling to Cuba as tourists, but are allowed to visit family and attend educational events.
In addition, the State Department has allowed some of its non-emergency personnel and their families to voluntarily leave the island ahead of the approaching storm.
Uncertainty over storm path complicates forecasts
Rafael could become the sixth storm to hit the U.S. this season, but where and whether that happens will depend on a combination of factors.
Two different forecast models show two very different possible paths for the storm.
"It is too early to determine what impact Rafael may bring to parts of the northern Gulf Coast," the NSC said on November 5.
One model suggests Rafael will move north by the weekend after hitting Cuba, carrying the storm on its way to much of the eastern Gulf Coast. Another model shows the storm could make a sharp westward turn in the Gulf, weakening the storm or causing it to make landfall in northeastern Mexico.
In any case, there are still a few days before the storm approaches the Gulf Coast.
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Regardless, Rafael will bring heavy rains to Florida and the Southeast beginning November 6. The risk of flooding due to precipitation is 1 in 4 for much of the region, with parts of Georgia and South Carolina at 2 in 4.
Heavy rains could cause dangerous flash flooding, but some areas will flood slowly, depending on how dry the soil has become after a dry October.
The amount and geography of likely tropical rainfall depends on changes in the storm's track.
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