Coronavirus mortality forecasts are on the rise, but states are loosening quarantine

The coronavirus development model, which the White House often uses, currently predicts that 134 people will die from Covid-000 in the United States, nearly double the previous forecast. Writes about this CNN.

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A model from the University of Washington Institute of Health Indicators and Assessment predicted a new 72 deaths.

Similarly, the Trump administration model predicts an increase in the number of cases and deaths from coronavirus in the coming weeks to 1 daily deaths in the US by June 000. According to Johns Hopkins University, over 1 people have died every day in the US over the past week.

The sharp increase in deaths in these two models is associated with relaxed social distancing. States across the country — including Florida, Colorado, Indiana, Nebraska and South Carolina — have eased restrictions in an attempt to revive faltering economies and calm restive residents.

“I think the challenge for all of us is to figure out what the trajectory is for relaxing social distancing at a measured pace that protects us from a significant increase or even a full-blown resurgence of the pandemic,” Dr. Christopher Murray said.

Forecasts make it clear that quarantine cancellation carries a mortal risk.

"It's simple logic," said CNN senior medical correspondent Elizabeth Cohen. “If people are allowed to go to bars and restaurants, the numbers will go up.”

The incubation period of the new coronavirus—or the time from exposure to the onset of symptoms—ranges from two to 14 days, and the virus can even spread among people who have no symptoms at all, according to the CDC. With widespread testing still limited, the effects of the easing of the lockdown may not be felt for several weeks.

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Ali Mokdad, professor of health sciences at the IHME, said there are “several reasons” for increasing mortality forecasts.

He said numerous variables influence infections - such as heat and population density - but "the most important one is mobility."

Right now, he said, "we are seeing an increase in mobility, which, unfortunately, is leading to an increase in mortality in the United States."

According to Johns Hopkins University, coronavirus killed more than 68 people in the United States and infected more than 000 people.

US President Donald Trump previously stated that 65 Americans are expected to die, but he later re-examined the number of victims to 000–80. This may not be the last upward revision.

Dr. Deborah Birks, an employee of the White House coronavirus task force, says it is predicted that between 100 and 000 deaths are expected, even in conditions of social distance.

Some California beaches, shops may reopen

In California, Governor Gavin Newsome fell out of favor for having some beaches closed.

Two Southern California beach towns — Dana Point and Huntington Beach — have voted to file a lawsuit against the governor's order to temporarily close all beaches in Orange County.

Newsom also said two other cities — Laguna Beach and San Clemente — could open beaches, but on a limited basis.

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According to him, law enforcement officers in these areas have drawn up an “outstanding plan” for opening beaches.

Other beach opening announcements may come in the coming days, he said.

The governor also said Monday that some stores in California would be allowed to open at the end of the week.

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti believes that the city will open no earlier than May 15.

San Francisco Mayor London Brit said they might need more time to open a business so as not to undo the progress made with the Covid-19.

“We're talking now about new rules for restaurants and we're talking about new rules for gyms and other places, but can we say definitively that these businesses will be open on May 8th - no, we can't,” Brit said, adding that she doesn't want San Francisco to go back to the beginning.

Other discoveries throughout the United States

Among other discoveries that began on Monday, May 4:

In colorado Offices can be opened 50% with other recommendations, including a 6-foot (1,8 m) distance between work desks and enhanced cleaning. However, staff encourages businesses to allow telecommuting when possible.

In florida The first opening phase begins. This phase allows for urgent operations, and restaurants can open for outdoor dining at a distance of 6 feet (1,8 m) between tables and seating in a room with a capacity of 25%. Shops can open up to 25%. Other businesses, including bars, gyms and hairdressers, will remain closed.

In nebraska most churches, salons and restaurants can be reopened.

In Vermont Governor Phil Scott expects thousands of residents to return to work after an order that allows them to work, but with new safety rules. Production, construction and distribution enterprises can work with 10 or less employees.

Isolation also expired on May 4 in Kansas and West Virginia.

Even in the newly discovered states, officials continue to encourage people to stay at least 6 feet (1,8 m) from others, wear a mask, wash their hands often and avoid touching their face.

Public pressure to ease restrictions is growing even in states with significant outbreaks. Thousands of people gathered in California to protest restrictions due to coronavirus, resulting in 32 arrests.

Chicago deaths hit 1000

Chicago, the country's third-largest city with 2,7 million inhabitants, has reached the "sad milestone" of 1000 deaths from the coronavirus, said Mayor Lori Lightfoot.

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According to the city’s health department, at least 1 people died.

In two months, the number of deaths from coronavirus in the city of Chicago reached twice the level than the number of homicides in the city in 2019.

In New York, the number of new cases is decreasing; in other states,

In some states, the incidence of coronavirus continues to decline, while in other areas problems arise.

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said that the number of diseases in the state most affected by coronavirus is declining, and the total number of hospitalizations below 10 for the first time since March.

However, he expressed disappointment at the slow decline in the number of cases, especially compared to how quickly the number of cases increased initially.

“We’re on the other side of the mountain, but the way down the mountain is not as steep as the way up,” he said.

Boston Mayor Marty Walsh said the numbers in his city have been stable for several days, but he is worried about easing restrictions.

“I appreciate that people want to save the economy,” Walsh said. “But I also want to save people’s lives.” And I believe that's my job right now, and that's what every governor and every mayor in the United States of America should be doing - saving lives and reducing the spread of the virus."

Dr. Anthony Fauci, a member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, also warned that premature withdrawal measures could lead to the restoration of the virus, which could put the United States in "the same boat as we were a few weeks ago."

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And the second round of the virus, he said, is inevitable. Its seriousness will depend on how prepared the people are.

People filled the streets

Against the background of relaxed restrictions and intense heat, the police faced problems in some open areas, including the lack of social distance and the limited use of face masks.

For example, the Miami Beach Police Department announced that it would close South Pointe Park again until further notice due to non-compliance.

According to police, over 7300 warnings were issued in Miami Beach over the weekend that a person was not wearing a face shield. For violation of social distance, more than 470 warnings were issued, more than 1300 people were asked to leave the parks.

In New York, where parks were packed this weekend, Cuomo said not wearing a mask in public was “disrespectful” to others.

To solve this problem, New York distributes 7,5 million face masks at various points in the city, said Mayor Bill de Blasio.

As ForumDaily wrote earlier:

• US President Donald Trump adjusted upward forecast for COVID-19 mortality in the USAwhile promising additional economic support in his quest for the further resumption of socio-economic activity in the country.

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