'A full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine is extremely likely' - Russian-speaking lieutenant colonel of the US Army - ForumDaily
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Bu məqalə Google Translate servisi vasitəsi ilə avtomatik olaraq rus dilindən azərbaycan dilinə tərcümə olunmuşdur. Bundan sonra mətn redaktə edilməmişdir.

'A full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine is highly likely' - Russian-speaking US Army Lieutenant Colonel

Vladimir Putin was planning a new offensive against Ukraine earlier this year when he ordered his military to take up positions suitable for a full-scale invasion. This idea was expressed in an exclusive interview with ForumDaily by Lieutenant Colonel of the US Armed Forces, former Director of European Affairs of the National Security Council (SNB) Alexander Vindman. According to him, the Russian leader sees all the existing vulnerabilities of the West, and is likely to use them to implement his plans.

Alexander Vindman. Photo: Ksenia Kirillova

The fate of Alexander Vindman can be called truly unique. A native of Kiev, Alex emigrated from the Soviet Union to the United States at the age of three with his father and two brothers. A veteran of the war in Iraq, a military man and a diplomat, he, being the director of European affairs of the National Security Service, in fact, was engaged in defining American policy towards Russia and Ukraine. At the same time, while working for the SNB, Alexander witnessed a scandalous telephone conversation between the presidents. Donald Trump и Vladimir Zelensky, the content of which became the basis for the launch impeachment proceedings against the head of the United States.

We spoke with Alexander about the likelihood of a full-blown Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the prospects for Trump's new presidency and what the idea of ​​America means to him, as a native of an immigrant family and an American patriot.

Russian aggression and the problems of the West

«I think that Putin has no goal of putting forward maximalist demands aimed at changing the entire architecture of European security. His plans for the moment are focused directly on Ukraine. As for the ultimatum list of "security guarantees", the refusal of the United States and NATO to fulfill these requirements can just be used by the Kremlin as a casus belli - a reason to start a war", - believes Alexander Vindman.

According to the former military man, Putin is trying to finish what he began in 2014, namely, to re-include Ukraine in Russia's sphere of influence, especially against the background of the problems that the Western world is facing today.

«If Putin decides to make such an invasion, I think it will be the largest military offensive since the Second World War. It can use aviation, cruise missiles, and a huge military contingent is concentrated near the borders of Ukraine - according to our estimates, up to 175 people. If the Kremlin decides to start a full-scale war, most likely, its goal will be more than just expanding the territories of the so-called “DPR” and “LPR”. It is important for Putin to destabilize Ukraine as much as possible, therefore, an option is possible in which Russia will seize Mariupol and break through the land corridor to Crimea. In addition, it would solve the problem with the supply of fresh water to the peninsula."- fears Vindman.

According to him, if such a scenario is realized, it could happen in the next few months. According to Alexander, the Kremlin believes it has a window of opportunity stemming from the weaknesses of the United States and Europe, and hopes to force Ukraine's western allies to agree to its claims.

«This includes Europe's dependence on Russian gas, the migrant crisis, and the weakness caused by the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and demonstrating the desire of the United States to end endless wars. Now the United States is extremely focused on Asia and China, inside the country, the confrontation between the parties is aggravated, which resulted in an attempt to seize the Capitol at the beginning of the year. An important factor, in my opinion, was the fact that Biden met with Putin in July and seemed to make it clear that there were some red lines, but then showed weakness in protecting these lines"- says Alex Vindman.

Will there be an effective response from the US and Europe

At the same time, the former member of the National Security Council fears that the United States may not fulfill its own words about unconditional support for the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine.

«If our words do not match our deeds, it will send a bad signal to our NATO allies. In addition, although Russia is stronger today than it was in 1991, it is still a weak country compared to the threat posed by the Soviet Union. Consequently, we are giving in to the demands of a weak country that is actually unable to challenge the United States."He notes.

On the subject: Ukraine, NATO and Navalny: what Putin spoke about at the annual press conference

Alexander Vindman believes that the probable Russian invasion of Ukraine will entail rather tough sanctions, which, however, will not be extensive enough, at least because the United States is not ready to pay a higher price for the protection of Ukraine than the Europeans.

«Europe is likely to hesitate to disconnect Russia from SWIFT, especially this winter when it is so dependent on Russian gas. The European Union is unlikely to impose new sanctions due to existing economic ties with Russia and the threat of retaliatory sanctions from Moscow. Gas shortage is the most important lever of pressure on the EU"He notes.

Alexander Vindman. Photo from personal archive

Alex Vindman believes that the response to the outbreak of Russian aggression will in any case be a broader US military presence in Europe. Combined with increased military aid to Ukraine and new sanctions, it could demonstrate the West's readiness to counter Moscow's unacceptable behavior.

«These can be individual sanctions, both sectoral and bloc, imposed on large Russian companies, which would make it impossible for them to work in Europe. It is obvious that Russia now counts on rapprochement with China and hopes that economic cooperation with it could soften the blow, neutralizing even the most severe US sanctions in the short term. However, I don't think China is ready to take a hit for the Kremlin's actions.", - the expert thinks.

Fiona Hill's Invitation and the National Security Strategy

Alexander Vindman accepted an offer to work on the National Security Council in 2018. He was invited Fiona Hill, who was at that time the special assistant to the president for European and Russian affairs. Since then, Alex has been considered the chief Ukraine specialist in the Trump administration.

«I studied Ukrainian at the military institute, always tried to develop an optimal approach to Ukraine and looked for opportunities to deepen our relations. As for solving the Russian problem, while still at the Pentagon, I developed a strategy for the United States that would guide our behavior in relations with Moscow. Fiona wanted me to do the same for the entire government.", - explained Alex.

Alexander Vindman notes that Trump's personal views on Ukraine were not yet fully clear when he started working for the SNB.

«For example, he signed the US National Security Strategy in 2017, which was very concrete steps really aimed at advancing the national interests and security of the United States. I focused my efforts on promoting this strategy. Moreover, I myself indirectly participated in its development at the Pentagon level, and now planned to expand it at the government level. In the beginning, this goal seemed quite achievable to me - before I could get to know Trump better.", - Alexander admits.

The Trumpgate Chronicles

It wasn't until the spring of 2019, when Trump was seriously considering his upcoming 2020 re-election campaign, that his animosity towards Ukraine began to grow. The president's main target was, of course, his Democratic rival Joe Bidenwhile his son Hunter became just a convenient way to hit on the image of his father. Around that period, Trump's personal lawyer began to actively work in Ukraine. Rudy Giulianitrying to find incriminating evidence on Hunter Biden. According to Alexander Vindman, this soon began to influence the policy of the United States.

«I saw these alarming tendencies, but I could not somehow influence the president, and this was not my responsibility. My job was to support the official US policy, which, however, increasingly diverged from the maneuvers of the president and his team. But the only thing I could do in this situation was to achieve the implementation of the officially proclaimed course of the United States foreign policy and the previously approved National Security Strategy", Explains Windman.

Over time, it became more and more obvious to Alex that Trump's aides were primarily trying to pursue private political interests. However, until July 2019, he was not sure whether Donald Trump personally participated in promoting these interests.

On July 10, a meeting was held between the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Alexander Danilyuk and Adviser to the President of the United States for National Security John Bolton... It was attended by the US special envoy for Ukraine Kurt Volker and the US Ambassador to the European Union Gordon Sundlandand Alex Windman... It was then that Sondland asked the representatives of Ukraine to start an investigation into Joe Biden, which was presented as a condition for the meeting of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with Donald Trump. Windman considered such a condition unacceptable and turned to the chief legal adviser of the SNB on this matter. John Eisenberg.

«One of the unique things about my situation is that I have always used official channels to communicate my concerns. Do not forget that I had an influential position - I was the director of European affairs at the National Security Council, and tried, with the help of other officials, to convey to the president the idea that the actions of his aides were potentially illegal."- Alex recalls.

Alexander Vindman and Ksenia Kirillova

According to him, these attempts were not so utopian: in fact, the US president changed his mind quite often.

«He avoided doing this officially and publicly, but in reality it happened more than once that his advisers gently pointed out to him individual mistakes, and the president then corrected them. Particularly influenced by James Mattis, then defense minister, Trump changed his mind on Syria"- shares Vindman.

However, Alexander soon realized that in this case it was not an accidental mistake of the president, but his personal interests, and Trump did not intend to change his decision. Shortly after the meeting between Danilyuk and Bolton, on July 25, 2019, a telephone conversation took place between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky, during which the American president asked his Ukrainian counterpart to start an investigation into Burisma and Hunter Biden. Together with the previously blocked by the White House supplies of military aid to Ukraine already approved by Congress, this request, according to Vindman, resembled political blackmail. Alexander again tried to convey his objections through official channels, and again was not heard.

Life after Trump

The lieutenant colonel assures: he has never been an anonymous informant and did not contribute to the leak of the scandal to the press. After the content of the conversation became public through the efforts of another informant, the House of Representatives of the Congress initiated the impeachment procedure of Donald Trump. As part of this procedure, Alexander Vindman spoke at a Congressional hearing on October 29, 2019, openly criticizing the president. After that, Alex became the object of the most severe persecution from supporters of Donald Trump. After the failed impeachment attempt on February 7, 2020, Alexander Vindman and his twin brother Eugene were fired from the National Security Council.

«I firmly adhered to my principles, and this was the only thing that mattered to me at that time. I have always stayed out of politics, and I was not interested in the political preferences of other people. After my dismissal, I saw support from people of all different views, but, unfortunately, none of the senior officers with whom we worked dared to support us. They were too afraid to openly oppose the president, although, in fact, they were not required to criticize him. They could at least support me in the face of criticism from the extreme right. However, the only military man who publicly supported me was the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Joseph dunfordand I am very grateful to him for that"- Alex recalls.

On the subject: Trump supporters say millions will give him back power in arms if he loses elections in 2024

Today, Alexander Vindman continues to work on the Strategy for US Engagement with Russia and Ukraine, but already as a civilian specialist, as part of his doctoral dissertation at Johns Hopkins University. In parallel, Alex writes articles on international topics for the New York Times, Washington Post, Foreign Affairs and participates in the Renew Democracy Initiative, which is headed by a Russian opposition politician. Garry Kasparov.

«We do not fully appreciate the prosperity and the opportunities that we have, and we do not pay enough attention to our heritage. For me, the United States is the difference between chaos and opportunities for all of humanity, which include individual success, human rights and the very idea that the world is developing, and it is possible to achieve benefits for humanity as a whole, and not just for individual countries or citizens. ... It seems to me that without the United States, the world will return to what is called "the law of the jungle", where everything is decided only by brute force"- Lieutenant Colonel Vindman is sure.

Trump's chances in new elections

According to Alex Windman, Donald Trump's chances of winning the presidential elections in 2024 are not very high.

«In the last election, he lost by 7 million votes, and after January 6, Trump lost millions of supporters who could not accept his instigation to a coup. In my opinion, the only chance that Donald Trump can win is the complete collapse of the Democratic Party, in which a serious crisis is now brewing.", - said the former member of the National Security Service.

At the same time, the lieutenant colonel assesses the possible victory of Trump as a disastrous outcome for the United States.

«During the first term, Trump was largely limited in his actions, but by the end of this period we ourselves saw that there were almost no restrictions left. The president surrounded himself with the most vile figures, and, as they say in the United States, there were no “adults in the room” by that time. So we can imagine what his second term would be"- says Alex.

Alexander Vindman emphasizes: Trump can work with people only if they are blindly loyal to him, which means that if he wins, he will select such people to his team who are not able to stop him in case of mistakes.

«I think this country will look very different at the end of Trump's second term. He had already done significant damage to her. Yes, perhaps we could survive four more years of his reign, but I have certain doubts about this."- fears Vindman.

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