How many Russians left the country after the start of the war in Ukraine, and where are they fleeing?

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, mobilization, and repression of dissidents forced hundreds of thousands of Russians to leave their country. Official Moscow insists that many of those who left have returned to Russia, and hides data on the size of the latest wave of emigration. Publication columnist The Bell Denis Kasyanchuk, based on data for the last two and a half years, claims that at least 650 thousand people left Russia and did not return.

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How many Russians left their country

The figures cited by official Russian departments do not reflect the real picture. For example, data from the FSB border service shows only the number of crossings of the Russian border, of which one person may have several.

Data from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs on the number of residence permits issued to Russians reflect only those cases when citizens themselves reported about the foreign documents they had received. This is not an obligation for those who left and did not return to Russia.

To determine exactly how many Russians actually decided to emigrate, The Bell had to analyze the statistics of each of the receiving countries. Moreover, it should be noted that in many cases the figures for 2023, when emigration was still ongoing, were published only this year.

On the subject: The war in Ukraine caused a new wave of emigration from Russia to the United States: who are these people and why are they unlikely to get along with those who left Russia long ago

According to data from migration authorities of almost 70 countries, received in response to official requests, it was possible to derive a final figure: since the beginning of 2022, about 650 thousand people have left Russia. This is 150 thousand more than the rough estimates that the publication published at the end of 2022.

Where did you go

The leaders are countries that have a visa-free regime for Russians. For example, Armenia (110 thousand people), Kazakhstan (80 thousand), Georgia (74 thousand).

The United States, where Russians began en masse to apply for asylum, unexpectedly found themselves on the same page in terms of the number of people leaving. Taking into account the “long-term visas” received, 48 thousand Russians moved to this country. Also in the top in popularity was Israel, where about 80 thousand Russian citizens repatriated.

From European countries, according to statistics, Russians more often left for:

• Germany (36 thousand Russian citizens);
• Spain (16 thousand);
• Netherlands (12 thousand);
• Serbia (about 30 thousand).

However, in Turkey (another popular destination for emigration), there has recently been a significant outflow of Russians - their residence permits are not extended, and life in a country whose authorities cannot cope with a prolonged economic crisis is becoming more and more expensive. However, according to data as of July of this year (compared to indicators at the beginning of 2022), the number of Russians with a Turkish residence permit in the country increased by 28 thousand.

How the calculations were carried out

When calculating the number of Russians who left, there are at least several limitations.

First, not all countries popular with new immigrants provided data. For example, the official authorities of Thailand, Indonesia, Azerbaijan, and Greece did not respond to The Bell’s requests, and the migration and statistical authorities of Cyprus indicated in their responses that they do not keep records of Russians who moved to the island.

Secondly, not all countries have published data for 2023. For example, Portugal, another popular destination for Russian expats thanks to its digital nomad visa program, only has residence permit figures available for 2022.

Thirdly, it is impossible to know how many, for example, Russians who received a residence permit or a permit to work or study abroad ultimately decided to return back to Russia.

And fourthly, speaking about Israel, we can only count the total number of repatriates, but not all of them remained in the country. In 2022, 32% of immigrants from Eastern Europe left Israel. This is stated in the works of the Knesset Research Center. The attack by Hamas militants on Israel on October 7, 2023 could also provoke the departure of some repatriates.

“Migration statistics are extremely inaccurate compared to fertility and mortality statistics, so it should be understood that this estimate, although it seems quite plausible, may differ from reality both more and less,” explained demographer Salavat Abylkalikov from Northumbria University In Great Britain.

What's next

Despite the small proportion of Russians who left (only 0,5% of the total population), their mass emigration became the largest in the last 20 years. Before this, a large-scale “wave” was considered to be the period from 1992 to 2004, when, according to demographers, 1,6 million people left the country.

It is important to take into account not only absolute numbers, but also the impact of emigration on the economy, science, and culture, notes Abylkalikov:

“In many ways, emigration, especially in the spring of 2022, as well as that which continues now, is in the nature of a brain drain. That is, these are people with a very high level of human capital, many young professionals.”

There is already a shortage of personnel in Russia, and it will only increase in the future. The aggressor country approached the invasion of Ukraine with a declining number of workers. And now the Russian Federation faces a demographic hole, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko said in June. This can be seen in the decline in the number of school graduates and university entrants. The Ministry of Labor expects that by 2030 the country will lack 2,4 million workers.

This migration has far-reaching consequences, especially in terms of demographics. Abylkalikov noted that the damage caused from the point of view of Russia's demographic development will be colossal.

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“Some of the young emigrants are implementing their reproductive plans in a new place, which will also somewhat reduce the number of births in Russia. In addition, due to demographic waves from 2012 to 2032, the number of people aged 20–39 years will decrease by 13 million people (by 1/3), and people aged 60 years and older will increase by half (by approximately same 13 million people). The shortage of personnel will continue to grow until the early to mid-2030s, and we have also strengthened this by pushing young people out of the country,” he explained.

If we take into account the potential reduction in migration (especially against the backdrop of recent anti-migrant statements by the authorities) to zero, by 2100 the population in Russia will be 90,8 million instead of 112,2 in the middle option and 57,4 million instead of 74,6 million in the low option forecast, the expert warned.

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