Trump's resignation, the collapse of the dollar and the collapse of Europe: named unexpected forecasts for 2020 year
Donald Trump can’t avoid the removal from power, oil will again jump in price to $ 90, the dollar, on the contrary, will weaken by 20%, and the real collapse of Europe will begin not with Great Britain, but with modest Hungary. These are the “shocking forecasts” for 2020 from Saxo Bank.
Danish Saxo Bank experts, who have established themselves as authors of shocking forecasts, once again excelled in extreme predictions for the coming year, writes “Newspaper.ru".
“All the shocking predictions of next year are associated with undermining the foundations, the current state of things will inevitably change. The theme of the year is a sharp change in the routine of things, the pendulum will swing in the opposite direction, ”intrigued the chief economist of the bank, Steen Jacobsen, who specially flew to Moscow from Copenhagen to present his latest forecast.
However, shocking does not mean “bad or scary,” Jacobsen specified. Rather, these are unlikely and underestimated by society events in the field of politics and economics, which can nevertheless shake the world.
$ 90 oil is a shock
In 2020, shale oil production in the United States will decline due to the low return on investment in this industry. The OPEC countries and Russia will not miss the opportunity to take advantage of the situation and announce a new strong reduction in the production of traditional oil.
At the same time, the next phase of the Aramco IPO will take place, it will be successful. Investors will receive the desired asset rating outside of Saudi Arabia.
Brent will eventually return to $ 90 per barrel (currently trading around $ 60).
US President Donald Trump will be furious because expensive oil impedes economic growth. Russian officials, on the contrary, will rejoice - petrodollars will flow into the budget.
On the subject: Expert Forecasts: What to Expect from the Upcoming US Recession
Hungary - with things to go
A sharp change in routine is expected in Hungary. It would seem, who cares about the situation in a small European country? But even here the unbelievable can happen, sure in Saxo Bank.
Since joining the EU in 2004, Hungary has been accompanied by economic success, “But now this 15 year-old marriage is in danger of divorce,” Jacobsen notes.
More than a year ago, the EU instituted a disciplinary procedure against Hungary under Article 7 of the Union Treaty. The leadership of the European Union believes that Hungary has created several negative precedents. The government of Viktor Orban has been criticized for infringing on media freedom, for changes in the electoral system in favor of authoritarianism, pressure from the ruling party on public institutions, and for rampant corruption in the country.
For these sins, the Council of Heads of State and Government may deprive Hungary of subsidies from a pan-European boiler. In response, Orban will openly talk about a "blood brotherhood" with Turkey and Russia. And this abrupt change "will coincide with the minimization of European tranches in the next two years." The Hungarian forint will collapse to 375 per euro, as markets will be frightened by the outflow of capital due to the revision by European companies of investment plans in Hungary.
The result is not Great Britain, but Hungary leaves the first of the European Union.
Sweden embarks on "all the grave"
A huge request for change exists in Stockholm, Jacobsen believes. Sweden has become tolerant of migrants. And a role model among the neighboring countries of the northern part of Europe.
But in November, Denmark was forced to close the border with Sweden - for the first time since the 1950's. The reason is a terrible criminal situation in a neighboring country. Over the past year, migrant criminals have committed 160 bombings and several killings. “Southerners” cover drug trafficking, prostitution, bookmakers, illegal traffickers in Sweden ...
According to opinion polls, in tolerant Sweden already 25% of the population oppose migrants. Society is split. The country began a recession, the seemingly unshakable successes of “Swedish socialism” under threat.
Asia will knock down the dollar
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, with the support of China and Russia, will create a new reserve currency - Asian Drawing Right, or ADR. One ADR, this “ruble / yuan”, will initially be equal to two US dollars, which will make it the largest currency unit in the world.
“This step is clearly aimed at eliminating the US dollar from regional trade. Local economies will be able to conclude contracts in the new currency, ”says Jacobsen.
OPEC countries, major oil exporters, will gladly join the conclusion of contracts in the new currency, understanding the importance of the Asian market. The renaming of a significant share of international trade in another currency will bring down the “American”.
In just a few months, the USD will weaken by 20%.
Trump Tax - America First
As can be seen from the shocking predictions of Saxo Bank, the next year will be difficult for the United States and Trump. Although it will begin with relative stability. All thanks to the achievement between Washington and Beijing, albeit a temporary, but still a truce on customs duties.
But soon the US economy will begin to suffocate, the trade deficit with China will not improve, since China will not be able to increase the volume of purchases of agricultural products. At the same time, dissatisfaction with Trump's policies will begin to grow, opinion polls will show his crushing defeat in the election.
Trump will lose his peace of mind, and in a recent attempt to strengthen the protectionist theme, he will propose introducing a tax under the code name America First.
“All existing duties are canceled, and instead they introduce a flat 25 percent VAT on all gross revenue in the US market, which is received from production abroad,” Jacobsen explains. Business will begin to protest against these essentially old duties in a new way, but the US administration will object as follows: companies can freely transfer production to the USA and avoid tax.
In other words, the system of taxation of business in the United States is completely reorganized in favor of domestic production.
Will this save Trump from early resignation? Saxo Bank expert replied that, of course, no. Impeachment be.
Third winter of artificial intelligence
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is waiting for a new protracted period of loss of interest and reduced funding for such developments, writes “Medusa". Over the past 10 years, technology corporations, including microchip manufacturers, have spent tens of billions of dollars on technology research and development. But company profits are not increasing along with huge growth in costs.
As for the technologies themselves, for example, the progress in deep machine learning already in 2019 was the slowest in five years. In addition, more and more energy is being spent on training, for example, large neural networks, while achievements are becoming more modest and modest.
Only the largest companies, such as Facebook, Google and Microsoft, will be able to maintain a balance of costs and results, and ultimately, venture capital will refuse to invest in AI.
The alarmist predictions of Saxo Bank, by and large, come true in one way or another. For example, experts of the bank spoke about the possibility of the collapse of the European Union several years before Brexit. A slowdown in global economic growth was also warned when they predicted the dollar for another 2016 year.
The irony is that no one needs a strong dollar, Jacobsen warned four years ago. If the dollar does not begin to weaken, the world is likely to plunge into a deep recession, as a strong US currency reduces the profits of large American companies, increases downward pressure on the value of commodity assets and leads to a decrease in growth in emerging markets, and their share is 50% growth world economy.
And now, according to all forecasts of “serious experts” from the IMF and the World Bank, the world economy has really begun to slow down. So far at a fraction of a percent. But the specter of the crisis 2008 of the year and the Great Depression in the USA, which started in 1929, has already loomed. A real shock.
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