'One of the longest and coldest': meteorologists predict a harsh winter in the USA - ForumDaily
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'One of the longest and coldest': meteorologists predict a harsh winter in the USA

A cold winter awaits us. At least that's what Old Farmer's Almanac predicts this year. Writes about it USA Today.

Photo: Shutterstock

In the latest issue of the 230-year almanac, the winter of 2021–2022 appears to be particularly cold and has been called the “season of shivers”. Almanac editor Janice Stillman says this winter may even be "one of the longest and coldest we have ever seen."

The almanac, which is often controversial about forecast accuracy, suggests that this winter there will be an icy combination of above average snowfall and below average temperatures in the New England area, as well as parts of the Appalachian region, Ohio, and the northern South. Interestingly enough, he also predicts colder and snowy winters than usual in southern New Mexico.

According to the almanac's forecasts, most of the western territories of the United States, already affected by drought, should expect an even greater drought. Only some areas of the country, such as the Pacific coast and northern plains, are projected to experience only "moderate" temperatures. Almost everyone else should be prepared to do some good insulation.

Should you trust the forecast

Old Farmer's Almanac has made a name for itself by providing long-term weather forecasts on an annual basis. The publication also provides readers with full moon dates, recipes, and various self-help tips.

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But these weather forecasts in general should be taken with a grain of salt, some weather experts say.

Both Old Farmer's Almanac, which began in 1792, and Farmer's Almanac, which began in 1818, began more than a century before satellite-based weather tracking became ubiquitous.

Old Farmer's Almanac says its secret weather prediction formula was invented in 1792 by its founder Robert Thomas, and the notes on the formula are "locked in a black box" in the almanac's offices to this day.

“Over the years, we have improved this formula using the latest technology and modern scientific calculations,” the website states.

The almanac says that solar sciences, climatology and meteorology are now being used for long-range weather forecasts.

However, experts have doubted the accuracy of these predictions for years.

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In 2016 and 2017, meteorologist Ian Null tested the accuracy of Old Farmer's Almanac, evaluating the almanac's forecast based on how forecasts compare to actual weather results in each region of the United States.

Null's rating system was relatively simple, giving one of three grades—good, bad and mixed—to the almanac's temperature and precipitation forecasts for each U.S. region.

Let's say, for example, an almanac predicted a dry season in one region. If the region has less than average rainfall, Null will rate the forecast for that region with a good accuracy rating. If the rainfall was above average, the forecast received a “bad” rating. And if there was an average amount of precipitation, the forecast received a "mixed" rating.

Only 25% of the 57 regions surveyed received a “good” assessment of the accuracy of precipitation forecasts for 2016 and 2017. In terms of temperature forecasts over the same time period, the almanac received a “good” accuracy score of just under 33% of the 52 regions surveyed.

The results of several years of forecasts may be a small sample for such a large-scale and long-standing project, but the results were very far from the traditional almanac's statement of 80% accuracy.

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