The odious dictator of the most closed post-Soviet country resigns: he will hand over the post to his son - ForumDaily
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The odious dictator of the most closed post-Soviet country resigns: he will pass the post to his son

Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, who has ruled Turkmenistan for the last 15 years, made it clear on February 11 that he intends to leave this post and “give way to the young.” The new president will almost certainly be the son of the current ruler, Serdar, reports with the BBC.

Photo: Shutterstock

Early elections in the most closed country of the former USSR will be held on March 12.

successor son

Berdymukhamedov has been grooming his son as his successor over the past five years, appointing him to various positions in the government, and his nomination came as no surprise to political scientists.

“We have discussed this scenario over the past few months. The goal is to keep power within the family, and this transfer of power from father to son will create a long transition period that will give the new president time to consolidate power, said Edward Lemon, a professor at Texas A&M University and head of the Oxus Society for the Study of Central Asia.

Serdar Berdimuhamedov has recently appeared in the public space and the media even more often than his father. He recently toured the regions of the republic, makes speeches on the main television and makes international visits.

Experts also considered his increased publicity and activity to be part of the smooth transition of power in Turkmenistan.

Smooth transition of power

Berdimuhamedov Sr. hinted that he was going to retire soon, on Friday, February 11. The 64-year-old president said he had reached the “age of a prophet” and it was time to give way to the young. At the same time, he did not openly name his son, nor did he specify what he was going to do.

“I support the idea that the path to public administration at a new stage of development of our country must be given to young leaders brought up in a spiritual environment and in accordance with the high requirements of our time. As chairman of the Khalk Maslakhaty [the upper house of the parliament of Turkmenistan – ed.], I intend to further direct my vast life and political experience to this area,” Berdimuhamedov said.

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Berdymukhammedov is likely to retain the position of chairman of the upper house. There is no talk of other honorary posts or life-long powers yet.

People around the president started talking about the elder Berdimuhamedov Sr.’s imminent departure from the presidency in 2019, when the president disappeared from public space for almost a month. Then they started talking about the president’s progressive illness—diabetes.

His resignation also coincided with his son turning 40, the age at which citizens can run for president.

Relationship with father

Serdar has no real competitors in the elections, experts say, just as there is no real political life in Turkmenistan. The intrigue lies only in how independent and autonomous Serdar will be from his father.

“It’s interesting how Serdar will position himself. Ultimately, his father came to power from a peripheral position, abolished his predecessor's cult of personality, and established his own cult of personality,” says Edward Lemon.

Political scientist from Turkmenistan Serdar Aytakov, who publicly comments on events in the country under a pseudonym, agrees with him: “Serdar is gradually creating his own team of managers and advisers, but has not yet advertised this very much and until his team has turned into a force and into “his party” opposing old nomenclature. But it is not clear to what extent his father will allow him to show independence and self-sufficiency.”

Former dentist Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov was appointed Minister of Health of Turkmenistan in 1997, and in 2001 became Deputy Prime Minister. After the death of his predecessor, Saparmurat Niyazov, he became acting president. In accordance with the constitution of Turkmenistan, the chairman of the Mejlis, Ovezgeldy Ataev, was supposed to act, but a criminal case was suddenly opened against him.

Examples of neighbors

Events in neighboring countries, namely, an unsuccessful attempt to transit power in the family of the first president of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov and the removal of ex-president of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev from power, could also have influenced the early departure of Berdimuhamedov Sr.

At first, Berdymukhamedov Sr. will rule the country together with his son, but will gradually step away from power, leaving behind himself the role of “guarantor” and “adviser.”

“It will be interesting to see how father and son rule the country together. We saw a similar example in Singapore, where Lee Kuan Yew served as “Minister Mentor” after handing over power to his successor,” says Edward Lemon.

Aitakov also agrees with him. According to him, Berdymukhamedov will gradually and consciously withdraw himself up to the status of “leader or father of the nation” and “guardian of traditions, sovereignty and independence.”

What is known about Serdar?

The political career of Serdar Berdymukhamedov Jr. (whose name translates from Turkmen as “leader”) developed rapidly.

  • He started it from diplomatic positions, first at the Embassy of Turkmenistan in Russia in 2008-2011, then at the Permanent Mission of Turkmenistan to the UN in Geneva in 2011-2013.
  • In parallel, Serdar graduated from the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation.
  • Returning to his homeland in 2014, he began to oversee the foreign policy of Turkmenistan.
  • In 2016, he became a deputy in the fourth convocation of parliament. At the same time, parliamentary elections were extraordinary and held without publicity. It is known that Serdar took the place of a fellow party member who retired before the elections.
  • Berdimuhamedov Jr. is still a deputy of the ruling Democratic Party, which does not prevent him from now holding the position of Deputy Prime Minister for Finance and Economics, an assessor in the State Security Council and head of the Supreme Control Chamber at the same time.
  • Over the past four years, Serdar has been rapidly changing positions in the government, he served as deputy foreign minister, deputy governor, and then governor of Akhal velayat, where the capital Ashgabat is located, as well as the minister of industry and construction.

The proposal to nominate Serdar Berdimuhamedov in the party was adopted unanimously.

“As a modest and sympathetic person, a good family man and a supporter of a healthy lifestyle, he earned the respect of his colleagues,” noted fellow party members.

Serdar Berdimuhamedov is an engineer-technologist by education. He is a graduate of the Turkmen Agricultural University and a doctor of technical sciences. The only son of Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov and the most public of his children. About the Serdar sisters, it is only known that they are married and live abroad (presumably in the UK and France). Serdar himself is also married and has four children.

Father's continuer

Experts agree that it is not worth waiting for the liberalization of power from Serdar. Berdymukhammedov Jr. recently presented a rather optimistic forecast for the state budget for next year. According to his forecasts, the country is waiting for economic growth, despite the food crisis and difficulties after the coronavirus pandemic. His father was very happy with this news.

“But to what extent Serdar understands the seriousness of the problems and threats, to what extent he is susceptible to foreign public opinion, to what extent he will be dependent on the opinion and pressure of his father and various elite groups - I think he himself does not know this yet. He comes to power at a time when all the resources for “tightening the screws” in the country have been practically exhausted, and then there are only mass repressions,” says Aitakov.

Children in politics or nepotism in Central Asia

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In Kyrgyzstan, two former and disgraced presidents, Kurmanbek Bakiyev and Askar Akayev, had children with political ambitions. Maxim Bakiyev headed the Central Agency for the Development of Investments and Innovations, while Bermet Akayeva and Aydar Akayeva (daughter and son) ran for president in 2005. True, unsuccessfully.

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Gulnara Karimova, the eldest daughter of the first president of Uzbekistan, actively participated in the political life of the country and was considered a possible successor. After her father's death, she was accused of corruption and attempting to seize power. In 2017, she was sentenced to 10 years in prison; later the court replaced the sentence with restriction of freedom for a period of five years.

Two children of the permanent President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon are also involved in politics - the mayor of Dushanbe Rustam Emomali and the eldest daughter of President Ozoda Rahmon, now the head of the presidential staff.

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