Congress appeal: fact check for Trump's claims on the US economy, unemployment and salaries - ForumDaily
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Congress appeal: fact check for Trump's claims on the US economy, unemployment and salaries

On February 4, during a speech to Congress, US President Donald Trump said he saved the country's precarious economy from collapse and created the greatest era of prosperity in American history, notes USA Today.

Photo: video frame YouTube / Guardian News

According to the publication, Trump incorrectly characterized the state of the economy under President Obama and overestimated his achievements. In fact, after the Great Recession of 2007-2009, the economy showed steady growth.

“You've seen a continuation of this trend,” says Elise Gould, senior economist at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute.

Here's a reality check on some of Trump's claims.

Economy

  • Trump: “Years of recession have passed. In just three short years, we destroyed the mentality of America's decline. ”

Facts: Barack Obama led the economic stimulus, which is credited with helping to get the country out of the recession. The economy grew at an average of 2,2% per year during Obama's tenure as president. This is slightly less than the average of 2,5% during the Trump presidency. But Trump initiated a tax cut of $ 1,5 trillion and an increase in spending to achieve this pace, raising growth to almost 3% in 2018. In the next two years, growth is expected to slow down below 2%.

  • Trump: "I'm pleased to tell you tonight that our economy is better than it's ever been."

Facts: Based on at least the growth rate, the broadest measure of economic performance, this is not the case. The economy grew by more than 3% in mid-2000 and by more than 4% between 1997 and 2000.

On the subject: Compare with the TV show: what Trump said during an appeal to Congress

Jobs

  • Trump: "After my election, we created seven million new jobs."

Facts: the president considers, among other things, jobs created after his election, but before he took office. Since the beginning of his term at the end of January 2017, about 6,7 million jobs have been added. But a preliminary revision of the Department of Labor data reduced this figure by 501 to 000 million seats. The final result is scheduled for publication on February 6,2.

For comparison, over the past 35 months of Obama’s presidency, 8 million jobs have been created. With unemployment rates reaching a 50-year low of 3,5%, employment growth is expected to slow as businesses struggle to find employees.

Unemployment

  • Trump: “Incredibly, the average unemployment rate under my administration is lower than that of any administration in the history of our country.”

The facts: Yes, but that's partly because the unemployment rate was already low at 4,7% when Trump took office. In the last 35 months under Obama, the rate fell more sharply, to 4,7% from 6,7%.

Household welfare

  • Trump: “Since my election, the net worth of the bottom half of wage earners has increased by 47%—three times faster than the increase of the top 1%.”

The facts: He's right, but the bottom half still retains a tiny share of household wealth—just 1,6%, down from 1,1% when Trump took office, Federal Reserve data shows.

Wages

  • Trump: “After decades of stagnant and falling incomes, wages are rising quickly—and, surprisingly, they are rising fastest for low-income workers, who have seen wages increase by 16% since my election. These are blue collar workers.

Facts: It is difficult to verify the fact of this statement, since Trump does not specify what he means when talking about low-income workers. But other data show a lag in wages for low-income workers. According to Gould, workers in the 10th percentile of income had an average wage increase of 5,8% last year, compared to 6,9% for workers in the 90th percentile.

Household income

  • Trump: “The real median household income is currently at the highest level in history.”

Facts: According to Gould and the Census Bureau, the average inflation-adjusted family income in 2018 reached $ 63, which is only one level below the all-time high of $ 179 in 63.

On the subject: 'It was a crappy speech': Pelosi defiantly tore the text of Trump's speech in Congress

Manufacturing jobs

  • Trump: “Companies are not leaving; they are returning. ”

Facts: About 500 jobs were created under Trump, but employment last year stagnated amid Trump's trade struggle with China and sluggish growth abroad.

The US trade deficit widened by 18% during the first two years of Trump's reign, indicating that more jobs have been cut in the US than returned, says EPI senior economist Robert Scott.

Factories

  • Trump: “Having lost 60 factories under the two previous administrations, America acquired 000 new factories under my management.”

Facts: Trump is right about the loss. In fact, the United States lost 90 factories from 000 to 1998, Scott said with reference to the Census Bureau. But recent census data show that the U.S. lost 2016 factories in 607, in Trump's first year, Scott says. According to him, over the past two years there is no publicly available data.

Read also on ForumDaily:

'It was a crappy speech': Pelosi defiantly tore the text of Trump's speech in Congress

Compare with the TV show: what Trump said during an appeal to Congress

Growth and increase in the number of jobs: the state of the economy under Trump in numbers

5 strange moments in the history of presidential addresses to the US Congress

Miscellanea In the U.S. Donald Trump Appeal to the nation appeal to Congress
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