NYT: United States will fail to achieve herd immunity to coronavirus

Factors such as mistrust of vaccines and the rapid emergence of new strains of coronavirus are likely to prevent the United States from gaining herd immunity. Writes about it "Voice of America" with reference to The New York Times.

Photo: Shutterstock

At the beginning of the pandemic, when there was no vaccine for the coronavirus, the term herd immunity meant the light at the end of the tunnel: the moment when enough Americans are protected from the virus to get rid of the pathogen and return to normal life.

More than half of adults in the United States have now received at least one dose of the vaccine. But daily vaccination rates are declining, and there is widespread agreement among scientists and public health experts that the herd immunity threshold is unattainable — at least for the foreseeable future, and perhaps never.

Instead, they conclude that the virus will likely become a manageable threat that will continue to circulate in the United States for years, still causing hospitalizations and deaths, but to a much lesser extent. How much less is unknown and depends in part on how much of the country and world gets vaccinated and how the coronavirus evolves. However, it is already clear that the virus is changing too quickly, new strains are spreading too easily and vaccinations are moving too slowly for herd immunity to be within reach any time soon.

Why herd immunity is unattainable

Initially, the target herd immunity threshold was estimated at about 60–70 percent of the population. Most experts expected the United States to be able to achieve this as soon as vaccines were available. But as vaccines were developed and the spread of the virus increased, the thresholds began to rise.

The fact is that the initial calculations were based on the infectivity of the original version of the virus. The predominant variant currently circulating in the United States is called B.1.1.7 and was first identified in the UK. It is 60 percent more contagious. As a result, experts now estimate that the herd immunity threshold is at least 80 percent. If more infectious variants develop, or if scientists find that immunized people can still transmit the virus, the calculation will have to be revised upward again.

Polls show that about 30 percent of the US population still does not want to get vaccinated. This percentage is expected to decrease, but probably not enough.

Herd immunity is often referred to as a national goal. But this is a vague concept for such a large country, experts say.

In addition, many regions of the world are lagging far behind the United States in terms of vaccination. Less than 2 percent of people in India have been fully vaccinated, for example, and less than 1 percent in South Africa, according to data compiled by The New York Times.

“We can't achieve herd immunity as a country, as a state or even as a city until we have sufficient immunity in the general population,” said Lauren Ancel Meyers, director of the Covid-19 Modeling Consortium at the University of Texas at Austin.

On the subject: The vaccine vs natural immunity: antibodies to differ COVID-19 and which effectively

It will still hurt less

Although herd immunity will probably not be there, the infection rate will decrease. This publication was announced by the country's chief infectious disease specialist, Dr. Anthony Fauci. In his opinion, one should not assume that a decrease in the number of infections is possible only after the creation of herd immunity.

“That’s why we stopped using the term ‘herd immunity’ in the classical sense,” the expert said. “I’m saying you should forget about it for a second.” We vaccinate enough people and the infection will go down.”

"The virus probably won't go away, but we want to make sure that this infection becomes moderate," said Rust Anita, an evolutionary biologist at Emory University in Atlanta, US.

What's next

Changing attitudes pose a new challenge for public health authorities. The quest for herd immunity—which some experts once thought was possible—has captured the imagination of large swaths of the population. To say that the goal will not be achieved is to add another “why bother” to the list of reasons that skeptics use to avoid vaccination.

It is vaccination that remains the key to transforming the virus into a manageable threat, experts say. Harvard epidemiologist Mark Lipsich is convinced of this. Continued immunization, especially for people most at risk due to age, exposure to the virus, or health conditions, will be critical in limiting the severity of outbreaks, if not their frequency.

Over the long term—a generation or two—the goal is to make the new coronavirus more similar to its cold-causing cousins. This means that the first infection occurs in early childhood, and subsequent infections are mild due to partial protection, even if the immune system is weakened.

You may be interested in: top New York news, stories of our immigrants and helpful tips about life in the Big Apple - read it all on ForumDaily New York

An unknown proportion of people with mild forms of the disease may continue to experience debilitating symptoms for weeks or months - a syndrome called "long Covid" - but they are unlikely to overwhelm the health system.

“The vast majority of deaths and burden on the health care system come from people with some specific medical conditions, especially people over 60,” Lipsitch said. “If we can protect these people from severe illness and death, then we will transform Covid from a disruptor of society to a common infectious disease.”

According to Bari Pradelsky, economist at the National Research Center, if communities continue vigilant testing and tracking, it will be possible to reduce the number of new infections so that health officials can immediately suppress a potential outbreak.

Read also on ForumDaily:

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the flu disappeared in the world: its return could be a disaster

How a Ukrainian with Jewish roots saved the world from the plague and cholera: the story of Vladimir Khavkin

Water, sleep and positive: 20 daily habits of people who rarely get sick

More than 5 million US residents did not come for the second COVID-19 vaccination

Do you want more important and interesting news about life in the USA and immigration to America? — support us donate! Also subscribe to our page Facebook. Select the “Priority in display” option and read us first. Also, don't forget to subscribe to our РєР ° РЅР ° Р »РІ Telegram  and Instagram- there is a lot of interesting things there. And join thousands of readers ForumDaily New York — there you will find a lot of interesting and positive information about life in the metropolis.