A new subtropical cyclone forms over the Atlantic: it can go down in history

The meteorological situation in the central Atlantic suggests that even before the official start of the hurricane season (June 1), a third tropical or subtropical depression (cyclone) may form after the storms of Arthur and Bert, writes Weather.com. Even two such “early” phenomena are rare, and three were recorded only once in the history of observations - in 1951.

Photo: Shutterstock

On the evening of Thursday, May 28, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated this system as Invest 92L - this coding allows a special computer model to consider possible scenarios.

The NHC gives this weather system an average chance of developing by the weekend—no later than Saturday, May 30.

Invest 92L is producing scattered thunderstorms and gusty winds across its eastern half-circle, and if this system continues to develop, it will likely become subtropical in nature. This means that the weather event will receive energy from both warm water and a jet stream, in this case a subtropical one.

Development is likely to be slow, as both of these energy sources will remain limited. Subtropical systems are usually quite wide with a spacious wind field, which makes it difficult to strengthen them.

On the subject: Hurricanes around the world are getting stronger and more intense: what comes next

Photo: screenshot nhc.noaa.gov

The system is located a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda and is expected to move mostly north over the coming days. Presumably, the Invest 92L will first orient itself to the north-west with a large high-pressure zone, and then the cold front, which will move from the East coast in this direction, will not allow it to approach the USA or Canada.

Bermuda will probably not be affected directly by this system, but the cold front that Invest 92L will take to the sea can bring some rain and gusty winds to the islands. There will be a storm in the sea.

The next system, capable of achieving the intensity of tropical storms, will be named Cristobal. The first two, recall, were named Arthur и Bertha.

What will be the hurricane season in 2020

So far, before the official start of the Atlantic season, two hurricanes swept over the United States - Arthur two weeks ago and Bertha at the beginning of the last week of May. Meteorologists say it's difficult at this point to make predictions for the entire hurricane season based solely on activity so far.

Just one hurricane season brought 3 tropical or subtropical cyclones before the official start of the season on June 1: this was in 1951. Then in January, a tropical storm formed, followed by Hurricane Abel and a tropical depression in May.

On the subject: Dozens of devastating storms: US residents face an unusually harsh hurricane season

According to Phil Klotsbach, a researcher of tropical systems from the University of Colorado, only four times before June 1 were two storms recorded for the entire observation period from 1851: in 1887, 1908, 1951 and 2012.

#Bertha has formed near the coast of South Carolina - the 2nd named storm of the 2020 Atlantic #hurricane season to date. The only years on record (since 1851) with 2 Atlantic named storms prior to May 27 are 1887, 1908, 1951 and 2012. pic.twitter.com/hhLngR2q1V

- Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) May 27, 2020

Nevertheless, if you look at forecasts, and not at history, many experts predict the above-average hurricane season, including experts from The Weather Company and NOAA.

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