85 times more official figures: US scientists estimate the real level of coronavirus infection - ForumDaily
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85 times more than official numbers: US scientists estimate real coronavirus infection rate

A group of researchers from California found that the number of cases of coronavirus in only one county can be 85 times higher than previous figures. According to them, these data can help better assess the true mortality from the virus. Writes about this Fox News.

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In April, researchers at Stanford University tested 3330 adults and children in Santa Clara County, who were typed through Facebook ads, for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, and found that the prevalence of COVID-19 among the population in Santa Clara ranged from 2,49% to 4,16%.

“The most important implication of these findings is that the number of infections far exceeds the number of cases reported,” the researchers wrote. “Our data means that by April 1 (three days before the end of the study), between 48 and 000 people were infected in Santa Clara County. The number of confirmed positive cases in the county as of April 81 was 000, which is 1 to 956 times lower than the number reported in the study.”

Asymptomatic carriers of coronavirus have long been a problem for healthcare providers and others who want to understand how widespread the virus is. The researchers also concluded that detecting previously unrecorded cases of coronavirus could also lead to a "better estimate of the mortality rate from COVID-19."

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“Many mortality rate estimates use the ratio of deaths to cases,” the researchers wrote. “Our study suggests that the mortality rate should be much lower.”

Scientists noted that the study had several limitations, including the fact that participants had to have access to Facebook and a car in order to visit the center for testing. These factors led to an excessive flow of white women aged 19 to 64 years and a small number of Hispanics and Asians.

However, after making adjustments, the researchers said the results could be applied to other counties.

“Although our study was limited to Santa Clara County, it demonstrates the feasibility of conducting similar surveys of population samples now and in the future to shape our understanding of the progression of this pandemic and track virus mortality rates over time,” the researchers said.

Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former Commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), agreed that the results of the study are probably consistent with what the overall picture of infection in the United States might look like.

"This is likely consistent with what the overall national exposure might look like," he tweeted. “Santa Clara County has been a hot spot for the coronavirus, and I expected the number of infections to be higher.”

Gottlieb wrote that in other hot spots, such as New York, where nearly 250 cases of the virus have been reported, there is evidence "suggesting that the level of infection may be much higher."

“We are also likely to find higher levels of infection in other places,” he wrote. “But the data so far suggests that nationally the total number of infections is still small.”

As some districts and counties want to rediscover their borders and ease isolation, there is an increased interest in the widespread use of antibody testing, which may reveal those who have already had COVID-19.

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An antibody test, which is mainly done using a blood sample, but can also be done using saliva, is aimed at detecting two sets of antibodies called IgM and IgG. Dr. Robert Segal, co-founder of LabFinder.com, said the body produces antibodies for the new coronavirus within 1-14 days.

“Those who test positive for immunity can theoretically return to work safely, but they should be very careful as health officials are still learning about this virus,” Segal said. — Humanity has not developed immunity to this virus, there is a possibility of re-infection. We can't be sure about that right now."

However, as with any test, accuracy remains a problem. The Premier Biotech serology test used in the Santa Clara County study has not yet been approved by the FDA.

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