'Our winters are not like they used to be': what is happening with the weather in the United States, and what does the fish have to do with it - ForumDaily
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“Our winters are not like they used to be”: what happens to the weather in the USA, and where does the fish

According to one scientist, climate change in the northeast is expressed in the abnormal appearance of fish with warm water, writes USA Today.

Фото: Depositphotos

“No one has ever seen this before,” said Glen Gavarkevich, an oceanographer at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute in Massachusetts.

According to another scientist, this phenomenon manifests itself in ocean temperatures, which have been rising for more than one generation, affecting the weather in coastal areas and taking snowfalls deeper into the country.

“Our winters are not like they used to be,” states Lenny Giuliano, a state meteorologist on Rhode Island.

As the water temperature rises in the Atlantic Ocean and its associated bays, heat can spread within the country and cause temperature fluctuations at the county level.

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One of the signs of warming in the northeast is the observation of fish, for example, young Black Sea perch, in shallow water off the coast of New England.

According to Mark Vysotsky, a climatologist at New York State and a professor at Cornell University, the water-to-land effect is also evident in the Great Lakes region, which is also becoming warm.

“There is a very strong connection,” Vysotsky emphasized.

Warm air

Although the southwest has experienced the largest increase in average air temperature over the past five decades, data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show that the northeast warmed up most strongly over both a longer and shorter periods of time.

In the short term, according to NOAA data for the five-year period ending in October, Delaware and New Jersey recorded the highest average temperature increases among 48 states. Behind were Rhode Island and Connecticut, followed by Arizona, California and Florida.

In the United States, there may be an “end-to-end” effect in which cold air falls from the north and raises warmer air along the coast, said David Robinson, a staff climatologist at the State of New Jersey at Rutgers University.

According to Robinson, such an effect caused gusts of wind at a speed of 50 mph on Halloween night in New Jersey. He linked it to a tornado in Morris County, about 25 miles (40,2 km) west of New York.

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“Of course, we are talking about the weather phenomenon ... but it can have a longer-term climate characteristic,” said Robinson, adding that “it definitely needs some study.”

Vysotsky points to a natural shift in the nature of the air, called the North Atlantic Oscillation, which can affect air temperature in the northeast.

Many agree that water temperature probably plays a role.

“You see how much land temperatures fluctuate throughout the year,” said Ambarish Karmalkar, a climate researcher at the University of Massachusetts and the Department of Homeland’s Climate Change Adaptation Science Center in the northeastern United States.

“The variability over the ocean is much less ... The ocean heats up much longer, and its cooling takes much longer,” he explained.

This means that the ocean works like a thermos, providing a constant source of heat even when winter temperatures drop around it. The effect has always existed, but it is more pronounced.

Although the researchers said that the dynamics have not been fully studied, NOAA data show an effect right down to the county level. Over the past five years, the four Connecticut counties along the coastline are on average 2,9 degrees warmer than usual, compared with 2,6 degrees for the four inland counties.

In Rhode Island, the difference in half a degree divided Washington County on the coast and Providence County in the north. In Massachusetts, temperatures in Nantucket and Boston were almost a full degree above average compared to the hinterland around Amherst in Hampshire.

A difference of 1 or more degrees separated Wicomico County, Maryland, on the Delmarve Peninsula from the interior of the state, and Philadelphia from the Allegheny Mountains and lower New York State from the Adirondacks.

But five years is too small a window to watch final conclusions, said Sean Birkel, a climatologist at the State of Maine and a professor at the University of Maine.

“In general, the entire (northeast) region has warmed up over the past few years,” Birkel said.

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Water warming

Gavarkevich is studying the Atlantic region, where the shallower waters of the continental shelf slide into the depths of the ocean. This area acts as a two-lane highway where cold waters from Canada and Greenland glide south closer to the coast, while tropical waters flowing through the Gulf Stream go further north.

The stream emits more “warm core rings” —vortices of water up to 60 miles (96,5 km) wide that rotate toward the ground and can maintain warm temperatures for several months. Along the way, the rings can increase the water temperature in this area by as much as 12 degrees above average.

According to Gavarkevich, researchers suspect that these rings have played a role in an unusually large number of dead humpback whales along the Atlantic coast over the past few years.

Although scientists tentatively concluded that they died from ship strikes and entanglement of fishing gear, they don’t know why this happens more often. Warming water offers one possibility, as they can bring whales closer to the busier coastline.

Overall, climatologists and other researchers in the Northeast have said that while there is no doubt that global climate change is leading to higher air and water temperatures in general, much remains to be learned about the interactions between them.

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