The population of the Earth has reached 8 billion people: what are the forecasts for the future

Organization Объединеных Наций reports that on November 15, 2022, the world population reached 8 billion people. Amid declining growth rates, the world population is projected to peak at 10,4 billion in the 2080s.

Photo: IStock

According to the World Population Prospects 2022, released today on World Population Day, the world's population reached 8 billion on November 15, 2022, and India is projected to surpass China as the world's most populous country in 2023.

Screenshot: Worldomet is

“This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognize our shared humanity and celebrate health achievements that have increased life expectancy and significantly reduced maternal and child mortality rates,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. “At the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we are still falling short in our responsibilities to each other.”

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The world population is growing at the slowest pace since 1950, falling by less than 1 percent in 2020. The latest United Nations projections suggest that the world's population could rise to around 8,5 billion in 2030 and 9,7 billion in 2050, peak at 10,4 billion in the 2080s, and remain there until 2100.

The World Population Prospects 2022 also states that fertility in many countries has declined markedly in recent decades. Today, two-thirds of the world's population lives in a country or area where lifetime fertility is below 2,1 births per woman, about the level required for long-term zero growth for a population with low mortality. The population of 61 countries or areas is projected to decline by 1 percent or more between 2022 and 2050 due to persistently low birth rates and, in some cases, increased emigration rates.

More than half of the projected world population growth by 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to account for more than half of the growth expected through 2050.

“The relationship between population growth and sustainable development is complex and multifaceted,” said Liu Zhenmin, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs. — Rapid population growth makes it difficult to eradicate poverty, fight hunger and malnutrition, and expand health and education coverage. Conversely, achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, especially those related to health, education and gender equality, will help reduce fertility rates and slow global population growth.”

In most of sub-Saharan Africa, as well as in parts of Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, the working-age population (between 25 and 64 years) is increasing due to the recent decline in fertility. This shift in age distribution provides a time-limited opportunity for accelerated per capita economic growth, known as the "demographic dividend". To maximize the potential benefits of a favorable age distribution, countries should invest in further developing their human capital, ensuring access to health care and quality education for all ages and encouraging productive and decent work opportunities.

The proportion of the world's population aged 65 and over is projected to rise from 10 percent in 2022 to 16 percent in 2050. By that time, the number of people aged 65 and over worldwide is expected to more than double. The number of children under the age of 5 is about the same as the number of children under the age of 12. Countries with aging populations must take steps to adapt government programs to the growing number of older people, including through the establishment of universal health care and long-term care systems and by making social security and pension systems more resilient.

World life expectancy at birth reached 72,8 years in 2019, almost 9 years more than in 1990. Further declines in mortality are projected to bring average global life expectancy to around 77,2 years in 2050. However, in 2021 countries were seven years behind the global average.

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all three components of population change. Life expectancy at birth in the world in 2021 fell to 71,0 years. In some countries, successive waves of the pandemic may have led to a short-term decline in the number of pregnancies and births. The pandemic has severely restricted all forms of human mobility, including international migration.

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“Further government action to reduce fertility will have little effect on population growth rates between now and mid-century due to the youthful age structure of today's world population. However, the cumulative effect of lower fertility, if sustained for several decades, could lead to a larger slowdown in global population growth in the second half of the century,” added John Wilmot, Director of the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economics.

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