All the same in the arena: Biden and Trump will again fight for the presidency of the United States

Joe Biden and Donald Trump face significant challenges in potential White House rematch in 2024, according to USA TODAY/Suffolk poll USAToday.

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For President Biden, who is expected to announce his bid for re-election on April 25, the positions among voters who supported him in 2020 are broad but shallow. Because there is a risk that another Democratic candidate, or even a third party, will end up getting the nomination in the fall.

Support for Trump among his constituents is deep but narrow, backed by divisions that are almost guaranteed to make it difficult for him to expand his support in the general election.

These companies complicate some of the traditional calculations. An April 600-600 poll of 15 Biden voters and 18 Trump voters, conducted on landlines and mobile phones, highlights the uncertainty.

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The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Trump voters love their candidate. Biden voters are a little indifferent

93% of voters who supported Trump in 2020 approve of his work as president. Only 5% disapprove. What's more, 45% say they're more excited to vote for him in 2024 than they were last time.

“Some candidates can be treated with indifference, but with Trump it’s either hot or cold,” said Ron Buffam, 77, a health insurance agent in Round Rock, Texas. A Republican and Trump voter, he participated in the poll. Respondents were drawn from national and Suffolk state polls conducted from 2020 to 2022.

As for Biden, 85% of his voters in 2020 approve of the work he does as president and 10% disapprove - a good rating, but not exactly what Trump has. More worrisome are assessments of his performance today: 43% of his voters report that they are less interested in supporting him next time, almost double the 24% of those who are more enthusiastic.

This gap in enthusiasm can be a major factor when it comes to persuading supporters to cast their votes.

Biden catered to a broad sector of Democrats

For a party sometimes defined by its divisions, Biden managed to govern in a way that satisfied the majority of his constituents. This is a significant force for a re-election campaign.

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70% of Biden's voters say his stance and policies as president were "almost right."

One in five, 21%, think Biden is not progressive enough, with many of them among those who describe themselves as “very liberal.” Six percent say he is too progressive.

“I love what he has done and is doing,” said Danny Zamora, 64, a San Antonio, Texas retiree who voted for Biden. He says the president has "survived" the challenges from economic troubles to the COVID pandemic.

If this is Biden's strongest asset, then his biggest weakness may be his age. He is now 80 years old. While a majority, 55%, of his voters say his age does not matter to them, and a significant number, 42%, say it does, and therefore they are less likely to support him. At his 2021 inauguration, at 78, Biden became the oldest president ever sworn in.

"I think he's great," said Tammy Hester, 51, a suburban Prince George's County, Maryland resident who voted for Biden in 2020. But, she adds, "I just think it's time to go back to the age of young, fresh thoughts and ideas."

Trump's criminal charge

Trump's criminal charges do not shake his core supporters. Two-thirds of his voters say they don't care about his unprecedented legal danger. The rest say the indictments make them more inclined to support Trump.

“It was politically motivated and the Democrats are only hurting themselves,” said Francis Weebey, 62, a property developer from Branford, Connecticut, and a Republican who voted for Trump. He calls it "100% my choice".

But the resistance that strengthens his base could also alienate other voters, even those inclined to support his policies. At the same time, an asset in the primaries is likely to become a liability in the general election.

Some of his supporters are signaling Trump's fatigue. More than 1 in 4, 27%, say they don't want him to run. Those who would prefer someone else have a clear favorite. Six out of ten respondents would most like to vote for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is currently reviewing the application.

“They fought and argued so much that it was time for something else,” said Pamela Kozort, 64, an independent voter from Fort Smith, Arkansas, who voted for Trump in 2020.

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However, Trump dwarfs the current field of major contenders with 69% of the vote. None of the candidates who announced campaigns or formed exploratory committees, including former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, scored in double digits.

A third party candidate can shuffle the deck

The ground is fertile for a third-party candidate on both sides, albeit in different ways.

While Biden voters are more loyal to the Democratic Party than to him personally, 65% to 18%, and Trump voters are split 41% to 43% on whether they feel more loyal to Trump or to the Republican Party. If Trump is not a candidate, these supporters may vote for an independent candidate or not vote at all.

A third-party campaign could create other problems for Democrats. Biden voters are already saying they don't want him to run for a second term, 49% to 40%. He doesn't have a major Democratic challenger, at least not yet.

6% of Trump voters and 9% of Biden voters say they would support an independent candidate. Some of them express a desire for a new and younger generation of leaders. Among supporters concerned about Biden's age, 15% would vote for an unnamed third-party challenger. Among Trump supporters, 17% say his age (now 76) makes them less likely to vote for him. Of these, 17% say they would vote for an outside candidate.

A third of voters who now support an independent candidate say they will stick with the plan, even if it improves the other side's chances of winning the White House.

However, 50% of Biden voters and 42% of Trump voters say they will stick with their original nominee. Victoria Hausmann, 31, a business manager in Trumbull, Connecticut, says she would vote for a third-party candidate "if it really worked." For example, she likes Transportation Minister Pete Buttigieg.

But in the Trump vs. Biden showdown, she is “100% for Biden,” she says. “Anyone but Trump,” the girl adds.

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