Opinion: Why Trump has good chances for a second presidential term

The need for a tough conversation with partners, competitors, and especially the enemies of the United States will continue after 2020, and Donald Trump has succeeded in this. Therefore, the current US president has high chances of re-election in 2020.

This opinion is in the column for RBC expressed the head of the department of international finance MGIMO (Moscow State Institute of International Relations), the head of the center of RISI (Russian Institute for Strategic Studies) Vladimir Milovidov.

The beginning of 2019 of the year has already entered the history of the USA due to the longest shatdaun, that is, the suspension of the work of government agencies due to the lack of agreed budget funding. The term of the temporary truce, reserved for negotiations between the representatives of the presidential administration and the congressmen, is 15 February. There are reports of some agreements, but regardless of whether the crisis is resolved or not, the confrontation between Donald Trump and his political opponents continues.

But not only the notorious wall and the security of the southern borders of the United States are at stake.

Trump Sweeper

Trump believes that making America great again can only be done by working hard to drain the bureaucratic swamp (draining the swamp) and scavenging (cleaning up the mess). Judging by Trump's message to Congress, in his piggy bank of achievements over two years, the authorities are preventing the war with North Korea, tax and administrative reforms, a new free trade agreement between the USA, Mexico and Canada, the victory over the Islamic State terrorist organization and the announced conclusion troops from Syria, the pressure on China and the introduction of import duties, which give considerable benefits to the budget. He knows his worth.

However, Trump should not be accused of empty boasting. His election to the presidency reflected the demand for change in American society. After the crisis of 2007–2008, it became obvious that America, which created the current world order, began to lose competition to new global players, which 50 years ago were considered backward states. First of all, China has reached a new level of development, coming close to the United States in terms of the size of its GDP, and in terms of purchasing power parity (in 2011 prices) even taking first place in the world ($21,2 trillion compared to $17,7 trillion in USA, as of the end of 2017). China is the world's number one exporter and ranks second in the world in terms of import volume. But this is just the tip of the iceberg. You can give a lot of examples, from electronics and solar panels to household appliances and consumer goods, when Chinese manufacturers are crowding out Americans.

There remains one immutable ground for the economic power of the United States — the financial market and the private capital that circulates there. But it has its ugly wrong side. The rapid growth of stock quotes, an increase in the “paper” wealth of an extremely narrow social stratum is causing a growing property split in society. Columbia University assessed the social consequences of the quantitative easing policy pursued in the United States after the financial crisis, and acknowledged that the least affluent segments of the population, predominantly monetary assets, deposits, lose, and owners of large equity stakes benefit.

To change the situation, we need non-standard measures and methods: pressure, rigidity, intransigence. All this is typical of Trump. It puts pressure on competitors and partners with all available force, violates the established principles of political correctness, humanism and other ideals of sustainable and inclusive development. He took upon himself the mission of a cleaner, a man who was forced to do hard work, and on the verge of law and justice. Trump’s policy doesn’t bring peace to anyone in the world; it creates tension and borders, if not hot, then cold war. The political elite in the United States emphasizes its detachment, and someone outright hostility, because the behavior of Trump allegedly contradicts the values ​​of modern Americans. But it is in the interests of the United States.

New American Centrism

It is hardly possible to find an American who would not want to strengthen his country, increase the safety of life or a growing economy. The question is in the methods. Judging by the polls, 40% of Americans choose Trump's pushy slogan (Make America great again). To others, perhaps, closer is Obama’s call to make the world a better place and be a leader in the world (Make a difference). On the example of these slogans, the behavior patterns of various groups of US political elites are visible.

With a light hand of the American journalist and writer Zakariya Johnson, a term intended to characterize Trump’s policy, performative cruelty, has spread. “He’s disgusting, but he keeps his promises,” Johnson praised Trump. The term “performative” was coined by the philosopher of the language John Austin to designate such a figure of speech, which is equivalent to action. The one who speaks performatives wants to look strong, decisive, purposeful and seeking his own. Imagine Trump’s slogans from a first-person perspective: making America great again, draining the Washington marsh, reducing taxes, and prohibiting illegal immigrants from crossing the border. This is a speech consisting of performatives. And if we add to this American-Americanism characteristic of American consciousness, that is, the conviction of American exclusivity, the special mission of the United States, the importance and value of American ideals, then it is quite possible to speak of Trump's behavior as performative American centricism. The strength and power of America is being asserted by a confident onslaught and American egoism.

This distinguishes Trump from Obama, who represents a large camp of idealistic American-centrists, who are ready to defend the leading role of the United States through the spread of American ideals, ways of thinking and behavior in the world, acting as an ideological leader, creating global alliances, partnerships and even compromising economic interests. What type of policy will win?

It seems that the political elite, which today is the opposition to Trump, is ready and even waiting for an opportunity to take advantage of the results of Trump's performative cruelty. The larger and more noticeable the results of the current president’s policies, the more pronounced will be the aggressiveness of his opponents. But ultimately it will be decided by millions of voters in 2020. Now it is difficult to predict the outcome of the elections. But four years is too short a time to qualitatively change the situation and bring America to a new path of leadership in the world. The competition is high, not all of the commonly used arsenal (primarily military) can be easily put into action. The need for a tough conversation with partners, competitors and even more enemies will remain, and Trump succeeded in this, and much remains to be done.

In 2026, the United States will celebrate the 250 anniversary of its independence. Although this date is outside the framework of Trump's possible second term, it is an important guide for him to take stock, which he himself declared. Who will he be for Americans? At least after 2020, he clearly hopes to continue rewriting the rules of the global world order. And it should not be ruled out that he will be able to infect this confidence with the majority of American citizens.

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