Five hurricanes could hit the US in 2026: forecasters predict - ForumDaily
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Five hurricanes could hit the US in 2026, forecasters say.

The first forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season have been released. Forecasters warn that several powerful storms could hit the United States, writes Daily Mail.

AccuWeather forecasters said on March 25 that 11 to 16 named storms are expected in 2026, with up to five of those potentially directly impacting the eastern U.S. or Gulf Coast states.

AccuWeather's top hurricane expert, Alex DaSilva, said, "It's critical that everyone from South Texas to Maine prepare the same way for every hurricane season, regardless of the forecast."

On the subject: What if you live in a state where there are hurricanes

Overall, four to seven hurricanes are expected during the season, which begins June 1, which is on par with or slightly below average over the past three decades.

Forecasters expect the season to be at or slightly below historical norms, but warn that the risk of hurricanes hitting the U.S. remains elevated.

AccuWeather urged residents across the country, particularly in Virginia, the Carolinas, Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana, to prepare for potentially dangerous weather ahead of time, as even a small number of hurricanes could cause billions of dollars in loss of life and damage.

"Don't let your guard down this year. It only takes one storm to cause significant damage, disruption, and grief," DaSilva noted. "Check your insurance coverage, safety plans, and evacuation routes now. Make sure you have emergency supplies."

Representatives of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration urged residents in high-risk areas to stock up on fuel, food, water, and other essentials in advance to avoid queues during an emergency.

Between June and the end of November, two to four major hurricanes, Category 3 or higher, with wind speeds greater than 180 kilometers per hour (110 miles per hour), capable of causing significant property damage, are expected to form in the Atlantic Ocean.

The new forecast largely mirrors last year's season, when 14 named storms formed in the Atlantic. Four of these became major hurricanes, and four storms reached the United States. In 2025, not a single hurricane made landfall.

The AccuWeather model specifically warns of an increased risk of so-called locally formed storms in June and July.

Unlike most hurricanes, which form far out in the Atlantic off the coast of Africa, these storms form much closer to the United States—usually in the Gulf of Mexico, the western Caribbean, or off the East Coast.

Such systems form when a normal atmospheric disturbance, moving away from land, lingers over very warm ocean water. The warm water can quickly transform it into a tropical depression, a tropical storm, or even a hurricane. A tropical depression is the earliest stage of a tropical cyclone, the "seed" of a future storm or hurricane. Approx. Ed.)

Forecasters warn that storms like these, forming just off the US coast, give millions of people in the southeast less than two days to prepare or evacuate.

By comparison, hurricanes that originate far out in the Atlantic or off the coast of Africa typically take one to two weeks to reach the US coast.

DaSilva noted that one of the reasons for the possible increase in the number of such storms is the very warm waters of the Atlantic off the east coast (from the Carolinas to Florida), as well as in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

Tropical cyclones use the heat of ocean water to form their structure and can transform from unorganized thunderstorms into hurricanes with sustained wind speeds of over 120 kilometers per hour in a matter of hours.

A factor that is likely to constrain the season's activity could be the development of El Niño in the Pacific Ocean.

This natural climate phenomenon occurs once every few years and is associated with an increase in water temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

It increases vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, which, acting like "scissors," breaks up forming hurricanes and prevents them from strengthening.

El Niño also promotes more stable downdrafts over the Atlantic, which inhibits the development of hurricanes by suppressing weather systems.

In 2025, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted up to 19 named storms, of which about 10 could become hurricanes.

This forecast proved to be overestimated: only five storms reached hurricane strength: Erin, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, and Melissa.

Three of them—Erin, Humberto, and Melissa—developed into the maximum Category 5 storms, with sustained winds exceeding 250 kilometers per hour.

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According to the National Hurricane Center, 125 people died in the Atlantic during the 2025 hurricane season, most of them in the Caribbean region during Hurricane Melissa.

In the United States, damage from four direct storm impacts exceeded $500 million, with the heaviest losses recorded in North Carolina due to Tropical Storm Chantal.

While fewer hurricane impacts are expected in the United States in 2026, AccuWeather estimates the likelihood of direct hurricane impacts as elevated.

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