Large-scale blow to Russia: the United States is preparing to bring down the ruble

In the United States can adopt a bill that bring down oil prices and hit the Russian ruble. In response, rumors have already appeared in the media that if the American president takes such measures, the OPEC oil cartel will take retaliatory actions, in particular, the dollar will no longer be used in oil deals.

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Edition OBOZREVATEL found out what threatens the adoption of a new bill against the oil cartel.

Trump wants cheap oil

“Oil prices are getting too high. OPEC, please relax and calm down. The world cannot bear such price increases, it is fragile!” US President Donald Trump wrote a few weeks ago on his Twitter microblog.

The American leader is an ardent supporter of cheap oil. And although opinions differ within his country (the more expensive the “black gold”, the more profitable it is to extract shale oil), Trump himself remains adamant.

In the hands of the United States a tool that can quickly collapse prices. The so-called bill NOPEC. He suggests that antitrust laws will apply to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). They will lose their immunity, and may be sanctioned for cartel collusion. And this, the analyst Vladimir Mazurenko is sure, can become a threat to the existence of the organization.

If there is no OPEC, there will not be anyone to limit the volume of oil production. This means that the supply on the market will increase, and prices will crawl down. NOPEC was developed before Trump entered politics. But with past presidents, no one dared to take such measures. Now the US president is ready to blow oil prices down with a powerful blow. Anyway, if you believe his rhetoric.

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Besides, now Trump needs to show his strength. In just a few years, the politician will have to go to the polls, and leaving after the first term will break traditions. In American democracy, it has historically been the case that a president “lasts” two terms. This was the case with Obama, Bush, Clinton and other Trump predecessors.

In the US press, there are mostly pessimistic assessments of the possible adoption of NOPEC. Like, it is unprofitable shale industry, and such a move could dramatically hit the market. Despite this, 7 in February a bill approved the House of Representatives' Legal Committee and soon the document will be considered by the upper house of parliament.

Low oil prices will also hit Russia. If cartel collusion is punished, countries will simply lose the ability to control production and will be forced to reduce prices under the influence of competition and an excess of “black gold.”

The United States and Saudi Arabia will easily survive low oil prices, but Russia will have a hard time, says Leonid Kosyanchuk, the former president of the Association of Operators of the Market for Oil Products.

“The United States wants to occupy a free niche. For example, if Saudi Arabia and America can feel quite comfortable even at a price of thirty dollars per barrel or less, then Russia will no longer be able to, because the upper layers there have already been worked out, and oil needs to be extracted from ever greater depths, and this is a completely different economy ", the expert explained.

According to him, in order to collapse the Russian ruble, it is enough to provoke a decline in oil prices. On the air of one of the Russian TV channels, Russian Minister of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin named the line after which the ruble will begin to have serious problems - $40 per barrel. True, the adopted budget of the country includes a forecast of $63,4. If on average for the year “black gold” fluctuates in a lower range, then in Russia there may be problems with the implementation of the main financial document.

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Saudi Arabia is preparing a retaliatory strike

Several sources at once told Reuters that Saudi Arabia was considering the possibility of giving up dollars when trading oil. And this means that the demand for the American currency will decrease and its rate will fall. However, after the appearance of a number of similar news in Saudi Arabia they said: they do not plan to refuse the dollar.

Vladimir Mazurenko is sure that the sources of the international publication have not just leaked the information.

“Even if it was just talk, we understand that there may be different actions in response to NOPEC,” the analyst said.

If Saudi Arabia abandons the use of the dollar and switches to other currencies, this will lead to a number of problems, says Alpari analyst Maxim Parkhomenko.

“This will definitely have a negative impact on the demand for the dollar throughout the world. But for the Saudis this will not be of particular benefit, since not all counterparties are ready to accept other currencies. Thus, they will still have to be converted into dollars,” the expert explained.

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