Space race: US fears that China will seize all the valuable resources on the moon

The US could win the race for leadership on the moon against China. But there is no time to waste as China's progress in space technology is staggering. Politico.

Photo: IStock

The race to the moon between the United States and China is getting tighter and the next two years could determine who comes out on top.

So says NASA administrator Bill Nelson, who warns that Beijing could gain a foothold and try to dominate the most resource-rich places on the lunar surface — or even keep the US out.

“It’s a fact: We’re in a space race,” the former Florida senator and astronaut said in an interview. “And we better make sure they don’t end up somewhere on the Moon under the guise of scientific research.” And it is possible that they will say: “Stay away, we are here, this is our territory.”

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He cited the example of the situation in the South China Sea, where the Chinese military has established bases on disputed islands. “If you doubt that, look at what they did to the Spratly Islands,” he said.

Nelson's comments follow NASA's 26-day Artemis I mission, in which the uncrewed Orion space capsule circled the moon. This mission was considered a success. It was the first big step towards NASA's plan to land astronauts on the Moon's surface to begin creating a more permanent human presence. This could happen as early as 2025.

It also follows the passage of NASA's annual budget by Congress. The agency did not receive all of the funding it requested, but Nelson insisted that "the necessary funds" had been made available. This includes key components for the next two lunar missions, Artemis II and Artemis III.

But China's aggressive space program, including the recent opening of a new space station, is getting bigger. Beijing has announced its goal of landing taikonauts (an astronaut working in China's space program) on the Moon by the end of this decade. In December, the Chinese government laid out its vision for more ambitious projects, such as building infrastructure in space and building a space management system.

Any significant delays or disruptions to the US program, which relies on a number of new systems and equipment still under development, could cause China to fall behind. And NASA's moon landing schedule has already shifted by a year with the Trump administration.

Over the past few years, Beijing has launched a series of robotic landers and rovers to collect lunar samples, including the first time on the far side of the Moon, as well as an orbiter, lander and rover that have reached Mars.

The US military is also expressing growing concern over Beijing's development of space systems that could threaten US satellites. The military is sounding the alarm about the security implications of Beijing's deep space forays.

“It is entirely possible that they could catch up and surpass us,” Space Force Lt. Gen. Nina Armagno said last month during a visit to Australia as China launched its 10th crew to the Shenzhou space station. “The progress they made was stunning—stunningly fast.”

A recent Pentagon report to Congress noted a number of recent leaps and bounds in China's space program.

It mentions China's pioneering ability to not only land on the far side of the moon, but also to establish a communications relay using a satellite that was launched a year earlier between the Earth and the Moon.

The report also says that China is improving its ability to manufacture space launch systems for human exploration of deeper space.

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Some NASA veterans are also watching with growing concern.

Terry Virts, a former commander of the International Space Station and Space Shuttle and a retired Air Force colonel, said the competition has political and security components.

“On the one hand, this is a political competition to show whose system works better,” he said in an interview. “What they really want is respect.” They want to be the dominant force on Earth, so going to the moon is a way to show that their system works. If they dominate the Moon, it will show that they are better than us."

But there are also practical threats that a Chinese foothold on the moon could pose, he added.

“China could potentially harm the moon,” Virts said. “If they create infrastructure there, they could potentially, for example, ban communications. Having them doesn't make the task any easier. Chinese interference is a real concern."

The Chinese Communist government maintains that such concerns about his motives are unfounded.

“Some US officials are irresponsibly misrepresenting China's normal and legitimate space efforts,” Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said in a statement. “China firmly rejects such remarks.”

“Outer space is not a battlefield,” he added. — The exploration and use of outer space for peaceful purposes is the common cause of humanity, and it should benefit everyone. "China always advocates the peaceful use of outer space, opposes the arms race in outer space, and actively works to build a community with a shared future for mankind in the space field."

Nelson expressed confidence that the US effort to return to the moon first is on schedule, noting Congressional funding for the Artemis program. This week, Congress approved $24,5 billion for NASA for fiscal year 2023, about half a billion dollars less than what President Joe Biden requested.

But that still means more than a 5 percent increase from this year.

Nelson expressed confidence that the next mission to the moon, Artemis II, could take place "within two years" and "hopefully we can speed it up." This mission plan is to send a crew to orbit the Moon by 2024.

But he said the space agency is under a lot of pressure because it has been forced to reuse all the avionics inside the Artemis I capsule for Artemis II to save money.

Since a fully equipped spacecraft was not designed for the Artemis II, NASA had to remove all of its space systems from the newly returned capsule and reinstall them on another ship. “It costs us time,” Nelson said. The goal is still to have the Artemis II up and running by the end of 2024, he said, but "they're telling me they can't speed it up, that they need time to remake them and get recertified and all that."

Then comes Artemis III's goal of landing astronauts on the moon by the end of 2025, already a year behind the Trump administration's plan.

“This will all depend on two things,” Nelson said. — Readiness of space suits and readiness of SpaceX. And I ask the question every day: “How is SpaceX doing?” And all of our managers tell me that they achieved all their goals.”

But he is clearly concerned that China is also gaining ground and eyeing the same sites for its moon landings.

“Over the past decade, China has made enormous strides and achievements,” he said. “It is also true that the date of their landing on the Moon is getting closer and closer.”

“And there are so many places at the south pole of the moon that are suitable for what we are planning at the moment, for collecting water and so on,” he said.

Asked if American astronauts would return to the Moon before China arrived, Nelson replied, "It's the Lord's will."

However, not everyone is convinced that Washington and Beijing are sliding into conflict on the moon.

“I doubt it,” said Victoria Samson, Washington director of the Safe World Foundation, which focuses on the peaceful uses of outer space.

She noted that China, like the United States, is a party to the Outer Space Treaty, which prohibits countries from making territorial claims to any celestial body, including the moon.

It would also be difficult for any country to maintain a long-term human presence in deep space, she said. “It seems unreal. It will be very difficult,” she said.

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But she agreed that there could be competition between Washington and Beijing for "limited landing sites and resources" on the lunar surface.

“This is where we made the argument that we need to engage with China,” Samson said. “Because of the possibility of landing next to each other or the need to provide emergency services to astronauts or taikonauts.”

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