Conflict on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan: will there be a war and what does Russia have to do with it

The aggravation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border was the largest incident since 2016. However, it bears very little resemblance to the full-scale war feared in the region. Air force.

Photo: Shutterstock

The likelihood of such a conflict, especially its outcome, is difficult to predict even without taking into account the political will of Yerevan and Baku.

On the one hand, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been actively purchasing new weapons in recent years, and now each side is more ready for war.

But the nature of the potential theater of military operations, the readiness of each side for defense and the composition of weapons, according to military experts, complicate the conduct of hostilities so much that the existing forces in the region will not be enough for either side to succeed.

The clashes on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan are an episode in an ethnic conflict centered on a territorial dispute over the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. In Soviet times, this territory was part of the Azerbaijan SSR with the status of an autonomous region, but was populated predominantly by Armenians. Disputes over its ownership led to a full-scale war, ending in 1994 with a truce.

Now the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent regions are under the control of Armenian forces - the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR). Baku considers this territory occupied. Yerevan does not officially recognize the independence of the NKR, but calls itself the guarantor of its security, and the budget and army of the republic are closely connected with Armenia.

Strength against strength

There are no exact data on the armament of the armies of Armenia and Azerbaijan in the public domain. Both sides also try not to disclose the number, quantity and range of weapons and military equipment. The situation is aggravated by the fact that on the Armenian side, part of the military equipment is located on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, and even less is known about it.

After the collapse of the USSR and the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia and Azerbaijan still had outdated weapons in their hands, and the purchases made after it largely determined the fighting efficiency of each country.

This level could be assessed based on the results of the conflict in April 2016, also known as the “four-day war.”

As a result of this clash, the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh lost control over an area, according to various sources, from 500 to 800 hectares, but most importantly, the war demonstrated the superiority of Azerbaijan in offensive weapons, which, however, did not allow Azerbaijani troops to take control of a significant territory.

By the time of this conflict, Azerbaijan was noticeably ahead of Armenia in terms of the number of new weapons in the army. Moreover, this concerned not only quantitative superiority, but also qualitative.

According to the CIA, in 2014 Azerbaijan spent 5,1% of GDP on military needs, Armenia - 4,29%. In both cases, these figures had been growing in all previous years, but the ratio remained the same - Baku was arming itself much more actively than Yerevan. This was especially noticeable in such an important area as aviation, where Azerbaijan had a noticeable advantage in combat aircraft.

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Tanks and planes

According to BBC estimates, in 2016 it could be said that Azerbaijan had from 314 to 750 tanks, Armenia from 100 to 166; Azerbaijan had 1100-1500 armored vehicles, Armenia - 140-636; heavy artillery systems, respectively, 240-469 and 150-240. However, even such very rough estimates could be erroneous, especially taking into account the weapons that were in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The UN Register of Conventional Arms states that from 2006 to 2011, up to 27 MiG-29 fighters were delivered to Azerbaijan from Ukraine, and up to 11 Su-25 attack aircraft from Belarus. The data in the register is from reports from two countries (suppliers and buyers) and differs from each other - in this material we provide a larger figure.

It also talks about the supply of 12 Ukrainian Mi-24 attack helicopters and the supply in 2013 of 25 unnamed helicopters from Russia. Most likely we are talking about a contract for the supply of 24 attack Mi-35s - a deeply modernized version of the Mi-24. Another 12 unnamed helicopters were supplied from Russia in previous years.

In the Armenian part of the UN register, it is said about the deliveries in 2004 of 10 Su-25 attack aircraft from Slovakia and four combat training L-39S from Ukraine in 2004 and 2010. The deliveries of military helicopters to Armenia are not registered in the UN register.

According to the same source, for 2016 Azerbaijan purchased 482 tanks (122 T-72 from Belarus, 48 ​​T-72, 50 obsolete T-55 and 100 unnamed from Ukraine, 162 unnamed from Russia, but it is known that Moscow supplied Baku with the latest that moment version of the T-90 tank).

Russia reported the supply of 35 tanks to Armenia in 2013. In 2014, she delivered one tank - it was a prize won by the Armenian crew at the tank biathlon competition in Moscow.

According to the register, by 2016 Azerbaijan imported about 400 armored vehicles, Armenia - 110; Azerbaijan - about 900 artillery systems, Armenia - 12.

However, these data are very approximate - each country received weapons from the Soviet army, which are almost impossible to take into account. In addition, Armenia deploys some of its weapons on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

For example, according to Leonid Nersisyan, head of the defense research department at the Armenian Research & Development Institute, now, in 2020, there may be a total of 300 to 400 tanks in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Of these, about 250 are in Karabakh.

Catch up with Baku

The April War changed Yerevan's attitude towards arms spending.

First of all, the volume of purchases was increased. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the volume of military imports of Armenia from 2014 to 2019 is three and a half times more than from 2009 to 2014, despite the fact that in 2014-2015 ., according to the institute, the country did not make any serious purchases.

There is no information for 2020 in the SIPRI database, but judging by press reports, Yerevan continues to actively arm itself - in March, a 40 million dollar contract was signed with India for the supply of four Swathi Weapon Locating Radar artillery radars for counter-battery warfare (effective in confrontation which occurs along the border with Azerbaijan).

In June, a licensed production plant for Kalashnikov AK-103 assault rifles began operating in Armenia.

Not only the quantity of purchases has changed, but also the quality.

“For the first time, Armenia began to purchase a lot of new weapons from factories, and not rely only on supplies from the storage of the armed forces of the Russian Federation,” explained Leonid Nersisyan.

This became possible thanks to two large loans for 100 and 200 million dollars, which Moscow provided to Yerevan at 3% per annum.

“Smerch multiple launch rocket systems, a large number of anti-tank weapons, man-portable anti-aircraft missile systems, kits for modernizing armored vehicles, tank engines, modern communications equipment in large quantities, Aqueduct radio stations for both equipment and personnel were purchased [... ] Tor M2KM anti-aircraft missile systems, and various smaller things for the army. Of the portable air defense systems, Armenia bought “Verba” (the newest Russian MANPADS 9K333) first, no one else bought it,” said the head of the defense research department.

At the same time, Armenia bought from Russia in 2016 (the delivery took place after the war) a division of Iskander-E missile systems and in 2019 – Su-30SM fighters, not with credit, but with its own money. Four fighters have already arrived in Armenia, and eight more are expected to arrive later.

These weapons greatly change the balance of power in the region - 12 of the latest heavy Su-30SM fighters are indeed a much more serious force than the light front-line MiG-29.

True, in the case of Armenia, the new aircraft turned out to be a little “big” for a small theater - the Su-30, with its long range, is designed for larger-scale combat operations.

In addition, both countries are armed with long-range and effective air defense systems S-300, and in the event of a full-scale conflict, Armenian aircraft, risking rather expensive aircraft, will often have to operate in the air defense zone.

However, Armenia was able to purchase these expensive fighters at a very discounted price as a member of the CSTO, and parity will arise between the two countries in military aviation after receiving the remaining eight aircraft.

The Iskander complexes are also highly effective weapons, even in the export version with a range reduced to 280 kilometers and reduced characteristics. Such systems can be used against ground-based strategic targets, such as headquarters or positions of anti-aircraft missile systems.

Finally, Russian troops are also located on the territory of Armenia - the 102nd Russian military base in Gyumri and the airfield in Erebuni near Yerevan, where Russian fighters are based.

In addition, Armenia is a member of the CIS joint air defense system and is likely to receive information from Russian radars. The military of Russian and Armenian air defense systems are conducting combat coordination exercises.

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Baku: goodbye to Russian weapons?

Against the background of Armenia, Azerbaijan greatly reduced its arms purchases just before the war. If you look at the dynamics of arms imports in the SIPRI database for ten years from 2009 to 2019, you will see that the volume of annual exports begins to decline sharply in 2015 and continues in subsequent years.

For several years before the war, Azerbaijan was one of the main buyers of Russian weapons, and Russia was the largest, main supplier. The total amount of completed contracts, according to official data, is $5 billion.

Baku tried to buy all the best - Smerch multiple launch rocket systems, TOS-1A Solntsepek heavy flamethrower systems, BMP-3, a division of Msta-S self-propelled artillery systems, two divisions of the S-300 long-range air defense system and several short-range systems "Tor-M2E".

After 2016, supplies from Russia fell sharply, and Israel took the first place among suppliers. Azerbaijan bought from Israel multiple launch rocket systems, light armored vehicles, several self-propelled howitzers and drones. However, the total volume was still less than in previous years.

Azerbaijani military expert Uzeyir Jafarov explained that this process has nothing to do with politics - Azerbaijan simply already bought everything it needed from Russia.

“Azerbaijan now has enough of the weapons and equipment that we acquired some time ago. Why should we spend extra money on weapons that today fully satisfy all the needs of the Azerbaijani armed forces? Azerbaijan today allocates funds from the state budget for other purposes - improving the material and technical condition, personnel and other needs,” he told the BBC.

Drone war

Armenia is losing greatly in the number and, what is very important, in the quality of unmanned aerial vehicles. Meanwhile, drones are usually very widely used in such conflicts - for reconnaissance of attacks on individual targets, headquarters, fortified positions, warehouses, and so on.

The main supplier of tactical drones for the Azerbaijani army is Israel, which is considered one of the world leaders in this field.

Even before 2016, Israel supplied Azerbaijan with Spike-LR anti-tank missile systems and Lynx MLRS, as well as Heron and Searcher unmanned aerial vehicles.

In July, Azerbaijan circulated footage of drone strikes on Armenian targets, claiming they were military targets. “If we said that we fired at a military barracks, we showed it. If we said that we fired at military equipment, we showed it,” said Uzeyir Jafarov.

According to the Azerbaijani expert, the Azerbaijani drones made it possible to avoid casualties among the civilian population, while as a result of the Armenian strikes one person died.

Leonid Nersisyan, in turn, said that Armenia has relied on the production of its own drones, which, as the expert himself admits, are lagging behind Israeli ones in terms of combat characteristics, but at the same time much cheaper.

During the July incident, among the casualties on the Azerbaijani side were two officers from the headquarters of the 3rd Army Corps - Chief of Staff General Polad Gashimov and Chief of Artillery of the Corps Colonel Ilgar Mirzayev.

According to Nersisyan, they were killed as a result of the strike of an Armenian kamikaze drone, but there is no confirmation of this data from independent sources. Azerbaijan confirmed the death of these officers, but did not disclose the circumstances of their death. Uzeyir Jafarov told the BBC Azerbaijan Service that Polad Gashimov came under shelling when he was inspecting a military unit in the conflict zone.

In any case, Armenia, like Azerbaijan, publishes on the Internet footage taken, according to the Armenian military, by drone cameras during precise strikes against Azerbaijani targets, and assures that its unmanned systems are not inferior to Israeli ones.

Could a war start?

The current escalation is not a full-scale war for enemy territory, but a struggle for control over strategic heights. True, neither Baku nor Yerevan have territorial claims in this area.

However, as noted by military experts with whom the BBC Russian Service spoke, Armenia and Azerbaijan found themselves in a situation where a military solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem is impossible.

After the end of active hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh in 1994, the armed formations of the unrecognized republic began to actively strengthen their defenses. More than two decades later, the confrontation line has turned into an echeloned defensive fortified area.

As the editor-in-chief of the Russian magazine “Arms Export” Andrei Frolov believes, if a full-scale war breaks out between Armenia and Azerbaijan, it will become very bloody, and both sides understand this.

“Apparently, the Azerbaijani side will attack. In any case, when you are attacking a prepared defense, no matter how superior you are, there will still be losses. And taking into account the fact that they do not have overwhelming superiority, in order to knock Armenia out for months so that it itself asks for peace, it means they will have to throw people at prepared engineering structures. Azerbaijan does not have such great potential, this is not the USA and Iraq,” the expert said.

Another Russian military expert, editor-in-chief of Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine Viktor Murakhovsky, told the BBC that in his opinion, neither of the armies of the two countries has sufficient combat capability to win such a war.

“Neither in terms of quantitative composition, nor in terms of the saturation of weapons, nor in terms of the level of training of personnel, commanders of the headquarters of units and formations. And, given the complexity of the physical and geographical theater of military operations, I am one hundred percent convinced that Azerbaijan, even with overall formal superiority in these components, is not capable of achieving decisive success,” he said.

According to him, in mountainous areas there are very few “operational areas in which it is possible to conduct combat operations in the spirit of traditional warfare with a breakthrough of the front, development of success in depth, encirclement of enemy groups, and so on.”

According to Murakhovsky, neither side has strong combat aircraft, but at the same time, the air defense systems, on the contrary, are quite effective, so that it will be impossible to provide air support to either side.

In any case, the expert believes, the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict can be resolved only by political means.

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