What will this winter be like in the USA: where and when to expect snow
It has been nearly a decade since El Niño, a natural tropical Pacific weather and ocean phenomenon, has been as strong as it has been this winter. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the last time El Niño caused a real wave of cold weather was in 2015-2016, when the warmest winter on record occurred in the continental United States. What to expect this winter, the publication said Yahoo!.
Photo: IStock
NOAA scientists are using previous moderate to strong El Niño winters to try to predict what winter 2023-2024 will bring. But just as no two snowflakes are alike, no two El Niño winters are alike. However, strong El Niño years tend to bring wetter, colder weather than normal in the south and drier, warmer weather in the north.
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This is exactly the weather NOAA is forecasting for this winter. However, since temperatures are always above 32 degrees (0 Celsius) in many regions, "wetter" weather does not always mean more snow. Additionally, the amount of snow that falls can vary greatly even when comparing one city to another in the same state.
To help determine whether to prepare shovels, fuel, or charge snow blowers, NOAA scientists released new cards, showing where snow chances are higher or lower during strong El Niño seasons (including this one). It should be noted that many factors other than El Niño, including atmospheric and climate fluctuations, play a role in the actual amount of snow that falls. Additionally, these guides are forward-looking, so they should not be taken as a forecast of how many feet or inches of snow we can expect.
Michel L'Ore, one of two scientists who developed these new maps, admits on the NOAA blog that "El Niño pushes the odds in favor of certain climate outcomes, but never guarantees them."
NOAA maps are compiled by experts and backed by data. However, as with the Old Farmer's Almanac's annual forecast, don't bet on the results. These snowfall maps are just fun to study and compare to what happens towards the end of the season.
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During a normal winter (January to March), the jet stream shifts south, causing storms to drag on. As a result, the northwestern and northeastern states are quite dry. The south, especially the southwestern states, is experiencing wetter and snowier conditions.
The stronger El Niño, the greater the role it plays in weather patterns. According to NOAA, these regions and cities could see higher than normal amounts of snow or rain this winter:
- California
- Southwest Mountains
- Washington, Baltimore and other central areas of the east coast.
At the same time, the Northwest and Midwest may experience drier winters than in the recent past.
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