What weapons will develop Russia and the United States after the collapse of the rocket treaty

After the collapse of the treaty on the elimination of shorter and medium-range missiles (DRDMD), Russia and the United States were on the verge of a new arms race.

Фото: Depositphotos

Edition with the BBC I asked military experts what missiles Moscow and Washington will develop and where they can be deployed.

Speaking to 6 in February before the US Congress, President Donald Trump said that America had no choice but to suspend participation in the agreement signed in 1987 by Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan.

“Perhaps we can negotiate a different agreement involving China and others, but perhaps not. “In this case, we will surpass them both in terms of spending and innovation,” Trump said.

Experts assess the likelihood that China will agree to eliminate medium- and shorter-range missiles as very low - for Beijing, these missiles are the basis of the country’s defense capability.

The contract has lost relevance

According to many experts, the INF Treaty is outdated. The treaty was signed in the 1987 year, when there were two nuclear superpowers, and then shorter and medium-range missiles posed a greater threat to world stability.

Now, many countries are building such missiles, not just China mentioned by Trump. In addition, new weapons have emerged that could disrupt strategic stability in the world, for example, hypersonic, cybernetic, and space weapons.

However, experts fear that after the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty, the agreement on strategic offensive arms reduction (START-3) may not be extended, and in the worst case, the entire nuclear nonproliferation control system may even collapse.

Recrimination

On the suspension of membership in the contract and plans to finally withdraw from it after six months 1 February said US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The reason for withdrawing from the treaty, Washington calls the violation of its provisions by Moscow. In Russia, it is denied and also accused of violations of the United States.

The Russian Ministry of Defense on Thursday evening said that the INF Treaty has been violated for several years by the United States, which “actually created the conditions for the production of missiles prohibited by this agreement.”

Russia offers Washington to return to the observance of the treaty and destroy the MK-41 launchers for Tomahawk, target missiles and drone drone.

The United States claims that Russia has developed the 9M729 missile for the Iskander M missile system, which has a range exceeding the treaty limit of 500 kilometers.

The United States claims that Russia not only built, but also tested such a missile over a distance of more than 500 kilometers. Russia, on the other hand, officially denies this and claims that it has tested 9M729 for the range permitted by the agreement in 480 kilometers.

Russia, for its part, accused the United States of the fact that missile defense system launchers in Europe can be used to launch Tomahawk cruise missiles, missile defense test targets are actually medium-range missiles, and some unmanned aerial vehicles are actually subject to restrictions like cruise missiles. Washington denied the allegations, stating that none of the systems mentioned correspond to the prohibited weapons described in the treaty.

Challenge accepted

A day after the announcement of Pompeo, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia also suspends participation in the INF Treaty.

Russia’s defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, told 5 of February about which missiles Russia will develop after it is no longer shackled.

“The General Staff presented the Supreme Commander-in-Chief with a list of measures that he approved. During 2019-2020, we need to develop a ground-based version of the sea-based Kalibr complex with a long-range cruise missile, which has proven itself well in Syria. “In the same time frame, we will have to create a ground-based missile system with a long-range hypersonic missile,” Shoigu said.

After the United States announced its withdrawal from the INF Treaty, publications appeared in the Russian press about the development of new weapons systems. Thus, on February 4, RIA Novosti published a diagram of an “aircraft-type drone designed for flights in the atmosphere and space at hypersonic speeds.”

The next day, TASS reported on tests of the Poseidon uninhabited underwater vehicle with a nuclear power plant, which can move underwater at speeds of up to 200 km/h. Putin spoke about it last year in his address to the Federal Assembly.

However, the existence of such systems and their characteristics have not been confirmed by independent sources.

"Caliber", "Pioneer" and others

According to Viktor Murakhovsky, editor-in-chief of Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine, the new land missile that will appear in service with the Russian army will be a land version of the Caliber missile.

The range of the "Caliber" will be increased due to a larger accelerator and an increased fuel supply. This missile, according to a military expert, will be capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.

According to Murakhovsky, the new mobile launcher for the Caliber will be either new (if it carries four missiles) or a slightly modernized Iskander-M version for the 9M729 missile.

It is more difficult to judge the product, which Shoigu called a “long-range hypersonic missile.”

In the framework of the INF Treaty, both Russia and the United States could not test and deploy ground-based ballistic and cruise missiles of lower and medium range. However, the treaty did not prohibit such rockets from being designed.

Murakhovsky does not rule out that Russia may revive ballistic missile projects frozen after the signing of the INF Treaty. For example, RSD-10 missiles (according to NATO classification - SS-20) of the Pioneer family.

“All the design documentation, all the technical background of that time, we have preserved all this. It is quite possible to update it quite quickly. A modern control system can be installed, a system for overcoming missile defense, new formulations of solid rocket fuel can be used, which have proven their effectiveness on the same Iskander,” the expert noted.

American design

Specific steps to develop, produce and deploy missiles in the United States have not been officially reported.

The day before the United States announced the suspension of participation in the treaty on the elimination of medium-range and shorter-range missiles, the head of the US Department of Defense missile defense agency, Samuel Greaves, said his department was currently considering the possibility of creating various means of intercepting hypersonic targets.

Such targets can be various promising hypersonic missiles, and warheads of medium-range ballistic missiles, such as the RSD-10.

The interception of targets flying at such a speed is complicated by the fact that the flying time of medium-range missiles is very small, interception must be carried out very quickly.

“High-speed interceptor missiles are one option,” Greaves said. - The other is directed energy. But there are several options there too. We are looking at the current set of interceptors and seeing if they are fast enough to catch up with the missile and hit its tail. And we have worked closely with industry to examine all existing and new interceptors for such a mission."

One of the common assumptions among military experts is that the United States will first focus on upgrading the existing Tomahawk missile. So that it can be launched from mobile ground launchers.

There is still no talk about the development of medium-range ballistic missiles, but, as suggested by the expert of the Russian International Affairs Council, Alexander Yermakov, there is no need to fear the creation of new nuclear systems, since the US is talking only about the development of non-nuclear complexes.

According to him, this may be due to the fact that a non-nuclear complex, if necessary, is easier to convert into a nuclear one than the other way around (the nuclear warhead is smaller in size than the usual one).

“The American side will most likely develop non-nuclear systems first, because it needs them more,” Ermakov believes.

Where will the missiles be located

Neither the United States nor Russia disclose their plans to deploy short- and medium-range missile systems.

According to experts, it is possible with a fairly high degree of confidence to say that the United States will not go on deploying a large number of such missiles in Europe.

Firstly, this has already caused protests in countries where these missiles could potentially be deployed - for example, in Germany. Secondly, according to experts, the United States does not need such complexes in Europe.

“There is no military need for this,” says Murakhovsky. “They already have a sufficient number of cruise missiles in this region, deployed on aircraft and ships. They can at any time concentrate a naval and aviation group in this region, which will have an ammunition load of a thousand missiles.”

According to Murakhovsky, Americans are concerned about a completely different region - China. And, according to his assumption, the Americans will create a new medium-range missile precisely for this purpose.

The chances that China will enter into a new treaty are small, experts say.

“90% of China’s nuclear potential is located on shorter and medium-range missiles,” says Alexander Golts, editor-in-chief of the Daily Journal portal. “If he even enters into these negotiations, then this means for him the prospect of losing 90% of his nuclear potential.”

According to Vasily Kashin, a senior employee of the Higher School of Economics, all US military facilities in the region and military bases of their allies are in the zone of destruction of Chinese missiles reaching Guam. In his opinion, Beijing will use all opportunities, including economic, to prevent the deployment of American missiles in the region.

According to Murakhovsky, if American missiles are still deployed on American bases on Okinawa or in South Korea, this will create a threat to Russia, and Moscow will react by deploying its missiles. If the Americans confine themselves to placing missiles at bases in Guam and the Hawaiian Islands, then Russia will be less nervous about this.

Read also on ForumDaily:

8 troubling questions about the consequences of breaking the rocket agreement between Russia and the United States

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