A historian who has been guessing the election results for 40 years says who will win in 2024 - Trump or Biden - ForumDaily
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A historian who has been guessing election results for 40 years says who will win in 2024 - Trump or Biden

Allan Lichtman is a historical forecaster. He has correctly predicted the winners of almost every presidential election since 1984. What he thinks about the upcoming election of the head of state, reports New York Post.

Photo: IStock

Lichtman has developed a formula for predicting presidential elections—and in many cases, it turns out to be accurate.

Lichtman's Keys to the White House formula consists of 13 questions that he believes provide clear indications of who will be crowned the winner in the fall vote. If the answer to the question is “yes”, then this candidate receives one key; if the answer is “no”, then the key goes to his opponent. These keys relate to both the political and personal qualities of the candidate.

Each point is applicable to two candidates - if one of them matches this point, he is given a key, and if not, then the competitor gets a point.

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At the moment, Lichtman said, Biden has five keys, and Trump has managed to get his hands on about three.

This leaves five more keys. Trump has enough time to secure his leadership until November.

What are these keys

According to American University, where Lichtman teaches, the list of keys includes: party mandate, competition, incumbent, third party, short-term economics, long-term economics, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, charisma the incumbent president and the charisma of the challenger.

Biden's position automatically gives him one point - the "incumbent" key. He also has no serious opponents among independent candidates, as well as representatives of third parties.

Biden was given other clues: the pace of per-capita economic growth, which exceeded the average growth of the previous two presidential terms, as well as real political changes in the country.

Trump, however, received the key, which is given to whichever political party has a majority in the House of Representatives. At the moment it is the Republican Party.

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Calling Biden lacking charisma, Lichtman gave Trump another clue and perhaps another point if Biden fails to achieve "major foreign or military success."

Lichtman correctly predicted that Trump would win the 2016 election and then Biden would beat Trump in the 2020 presidential election.

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