This year's hurricane season will break several records: 25 named storms will hit the Atlantic

Colorado State University has updated its forecast for hurricane season. If the June scenario was “extremely active,” then forecasters promise an even more intense period of hurricanes for July, the publication reports Sun sentinel.

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Details of the new forecast:

• The number of forecast hurricanes that have been assigned names increased from 23 to 25. The average for the period from 1991 to 2020 is 14,4.
• The total number of hurricanes increased from 11 to 12. The average for the period from 1991 to 2020 is 7,2
• The number of major hurricanes predicted has increased from 5 to 6. The average for the period from 1991 to 2020 is 3,2.
• The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index increased from 210 to 230. The average value for the period from 1991 to 2020 is 123.

Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is the sum of the duration and wind intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes. Therefore, experts consider it a more accurate indicator for assessing the activity of the season than simply the number of storms.

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Climatologist Brian McNoldy of the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Sciences wrote on X that the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record contributed significantly to this year's ACE increase: "It raised the 2024 figure to an incredible level for such an early stage season. ACE is higher than any other year this time of year and is already higher than 14% of all hurricane seasons since 1851!”

The Colorado State University report also includes information on the likelihood of at least one major hurricane making landfall after July 8th. Forecasters said there is a 57% chance that a major hurricane will hit the continental US. Historically the probability is 43%.

The US East Coast, including Florida, has a 31% chance of a major hurricane. Historically for the East Coast the probability is 21%. The Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to the Mexican border has a 38% chance this year. Historically the probability is 27%.

Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University, who specializes in hurricane forecasts in the Atlantic Basin, wrote on X that one reason for the very active forecast is the significant potential for the oceanic atmospheric phenomenon La Niña to develop.

“La Niña typically increases hurricane activity in the Atlantic by reducing vertical wind shear in the Caribbean/tropical Atlantic,” he wrote.

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Another factor is high sea surface temperatures. Warm water fuels hurricanes, and the Atlantic has been unusually warm this year. As of July 7, average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic were slightly cooler than in 2023, which was abnormally warm. But they are still significantly above the average for the period from 1991 to 2020. Hurricane Beryl may have cooled this area of ​​the ocean slightly. The massive cloud of Saharan dust currently hanging over the Atlantic could also cool the ocean a bit. Klotzbach wrote that while some parts of the Atlantic are experiencing abnormal cooling, “much of the North Atlantic remains much warmer than normal, which is conducive to hurricane activity. This heat wave is the main reason Colorado State University's (CSU) 2024 seasonal hurricane forecast is very active."

Read also on ForumDaily:

Deadly Hurricane Beryl makes landfall in Texas

Hurricane season 2024: a list of names and forecasts of storm activity in the Atlantic

America is threatened by powerful and destructive hurricanes the likes of which the world has never seen.

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