War in numbers: how Ukraine has changed in three years of full-scale Russian invasion
February 24 marks the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Moscow's plan to "take Kyiv in three days" has failed miserably. But in an 11-year war of endurance, the full-scale part of which has been going on for three years now, every resource is important for victory. Correspondent Air force Anastasia Zanuda collected statistics on how Ukraine survived the third year of the great war.
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Depopulation
The last full census in Ukraine was conducted in 2001. Before the full-scale Russian invasion, according to various estimates, 41–42 million people lived in Ukraine (excluding occupied Crimea and parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions).
According to UN calculations, since February 2022, Ukraine's population has decreased by 10 million, or about a quarter.
Demographers say that a systematic reduction in the population of Ukraine is inevitable, and it is already happening.
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As of July 2024, 30 million people lived in the territory controlled by Ukraine, according to data from three Ukrainian mobile operators.
The Ministry of Economy uses a slightly higher figure in its macroeconomic forecasts: 33 million people.
According to a CIA report published in the fall of 2024, the mortality rate in Ukraine is 18,6 per thousand people - the highest in the world.
Russia ranked ninth in this report with a death rate of 14 per thousand people.
In addition, according to CIA data for 2024, Ukraine has the lowest birth rate in the world - six children per thousand people, which puts the country in 228th place in the ranking.
Civilian casualties
According to the UN, the number of civilian casualties in Ukraine has increased significantly in 2024.
According to UN Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo, the number of deaths and injuries as a result of Russian military actions has increased by 30% compared to the previous year. These figures were published in January 2025.
The UN drew particular attention to the increase in the number of victims among children. In the first three quarters of 2024, more cases of deaths and injuries of children were recorded than in the whole of 2023.
According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), at least 12 people have died since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, including 456 children.
A year ago, the UN put the figure at 10 civilians. The statistics reflect only confirmed deaths; the real number of victims could be much higher.
Casualties among the military
During the three years of the Great War, the Ukrainian authorities rarely announced the number of military losses.
However, in early February 2025, in an interview with British journalist Piers Morgan, President Zelenskyy, when asked about losses during the war and, in particular, about US President Donald Trump's statement about 400 thousand Ukrainian soldiers killed, stated that the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed was 45.
A year ago, President Zelensky cited the figure of 31 thousand dead soldiers.
Another 390 thousand are cases of injuries, which, according to Zelensky, are more than the number of injured people, since one person could receive several injuries.
Internally displaced persons
According to the Ministry of Social Policy, as of early December 2024, 4,9 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) were registered in Ukraine.
Of these, 3,6 million were displaced after the full-scale invasion began.
2,5 million cannot return to their homes because their housing has either been destroyed, is in an active combat zone, or is in temporarily occupied territory.
As of January 2025, 1,2 million IDPs were receiving government assistance.
UAH 2024 billion was allocated for payments to displaced persons in 57,6, which is 20 times more than before the full-scale invasion.
Ukrainians Abroad
According to the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), by mid-January, almost 6,9 million internally displaced persons from Ukraine were registered worldwide, of which 6,3 million are in Europe.
Initially, most Ukrainians fled to Poland, but later Germany took first place.
According to the UN, more than 993 thousand Ukrainians are enjoying temporary protection in Poland, while during the entire war, 1,9 million people received this status.
As of mid-January 2025, 1,243 million Ukrainians had temporary protection in Germany.
According to the UN, there are about 1,269 million Ukrainians in Russia and Belarus.
According to Eurostat data as of December 31, 2024, about 4,3 million people who left Ukraine because of the war had temporary asylum status in EU countries.
A study by the Center for Economic Strategy showed that after three years of war, 5,2 million Ukrainians are living abroad.
At the same time, for the first time during the research, the number of those planning to return to Ukraine turned out to be less than half - only 43%.
Expenditures on war
According to the Finance Ministry, in 2024, budget expenditures on security and defense amounted to almost UAH 2,1 trillion ($51,9 billion), which on average means UAH 5,7 billion ($142 million) per day.
More than UAH 2025 trillion ($2,2 billion) has been allocated for defense needs by 49, which is 26,3% of GDP.
Of this amount, UAH 740 billion will be allocated for the purchase of weapons, which fully covers the annual need, and almost UAH 50 billion will be allocated for the production and purchase of UAVs.
International assistance
Financial assistance from partners remains a key factor in Ukraine’s economic stability.
According to the Ministry of Finance, Ukraine received about $2024 billion in international financial assistance in 41,7.
In 2022–2024, partners provided Ukraine with more than $115 billion.
The top three donors are:
- EU – $45 billion,
- USA – $31 billion,
- IMF – $12,4 billion.
In 2025, Ukraine plans to attract $38,4 billion in aid from international partners, including $22 billion under the ERA program, funded by G7 countries.
Destruction and damage
According to calculations by the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE), which has been keeping track of Ukraine’s economic losses since the start of the Russian invasion, as of November 2024, the total volume of direct damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure had risen to $170 billion. In January 2024, these losses were estimated at $155 billion.
As noted by KSE, the greatest losses were suffered by the housing stock, transport infrastructure and energy.
Among all sectors, the housing sector has suffered the most significant losses, estimated at $60 billion. As of November 2024, 236 thousand residential buildings were damaged or destroyed, of which 209 thousand were private homes, 27 thousand were apartment buildings, and another 600 were dormitories.
The greatest destruction was recorded in the Donetsk, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Kyiv, Chernihiv and Kherson regions.
In addition to the destruction of housing, losses in the public utilities sector amount to $3,5 billion. Almost a thousand boiler houses, 214 central heating stations, and more than 354 km of heating networks were significantly damaged.
Damages to transport infrastructure are estimated at $38,5 billion. In addition, according to KSE estimates, 260 thousand cars have been destroyed or damaged during the war in Ukraine.
Ukraine's energy sector has lost $14,6 billion in assets. As a result of Russian attacks, the Kakhovka and Dnieprovskaya hydroelectric power plants, the Tripolskaya and Zmievskaya thermal power plants were completely destroyed, a significant number of other generating capacities, as well as high-voltage substations and oil and gas infrastructure facilities, were damaged or destroyed.
Almost the same losses — $14,4 billion — were suffered by industry and construction. Enterprises lost equipment, production facilities, and logistics capacities. As of November 2024, almost half a thousand large and medium-sized private and state-owned enterprises were destroyed or seriously damaged.
KSE economists estimate losses in the agricultural sector at $10,3 billion.
Losses in educational ($7,3 billion) and medical ($4,3 billion) infrastructure are a separate item.
Since the start of the full-scale Russian invasion, more than 4 educational institutions have been damaged or destroyed, including 229 schools, 110 kindergartens and 97 universities. In addition, more than 1,5 medical facilities have been destroyed or damaged.
About $4 billion have been lost in the sphere of cultural heritage of Ukraine.
Economic slowdown and rising inflation
According to preliminary data, the Ukrainian economy grew by 2024-3,4% in 3,6. Although the final figures will be known later, it is already clear that this is less than the 5,3% recorded a year earlier.
The dynamics of GDP growth remain positive, but in fact it should rather be called recovery rather than growth, since in the first year of the war the Ukrainian economy contracted by 29%. In the second and third years of the war, it only “plays back” part of this decline and never reached the pre-war level of 2021.
At the same time as economic growth slowed in 2024, inflation accelerated in Ukraine.
According to the State Statistics Service, prices in January 2025 were 12,9% higher than in January 2024. This is more than twice the figure for the previous year, when prices rose by only 5%.
The National Bank cites the worse harvest, which limited food supply, the rise in production costs for electricity (due to Russian shelling of energy infrastructure) and the increase in labor costs as the main reasons for the accelerated price growth.
Export at the level of international aid
According to the Ministry of Economy, in 2024, Ukrainian exports grew by more than 13% and brought in $41 billion. This is approximately the same amount of financial support Ukraine received from its partners.
“The key factor in achieving such results was the normalization of the work of Ukrainian seaports,” said First Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Svyrydenko.
More than 80% of all Ukrainian exports passed through the Black Sea ports.
The basis of Ukrainian exports is agricultural products, among which sunflower oil is the leader. In 2024, its export brought Ukraine $5 billion.
The State Customs Service data looks even more optimistic. They report a 16% increase in exports, the total amount of which amounted to $41,6 billion.
The largest buyers of Ukrainian goods in 2024 were: Poland - $4,7 billion, Spain - $2,9 billion and Germany - $2,8 billion.
However, Ukrainian exports are still significantly inferior to imports, which exceeded $2024 billion in 70.
However, as analysts note, it is necessary to take into account imports related to the war. In particular, the purchase of weapons, equipment, as well as the import of electricity, which Ukraine is forced to do because of Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Is inflation worse than occupation?
According to a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), as of early February 2025, the share of those who believe that things in the country are moving in the wrong direction exceeds the share of those who are confident that the course is correct - 46% versus 38%.
Compared to February 2024, the share of pessimists has not changed, but the number of optimists has decreased. At the same time, the number of those who do not know how to answer the question about the correctness or incorrectness of Ukraine's course has increased.
In May 2022, 68% were optimistic, compared to only 16% of pessimists.
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The results of the KIIS survey are similar to the data of a study conducted at the end of 2024 by the sociological firm Rating. According to these data, the criticality in assessing the general situation in the country is growing.
About half (49%) of respondents believe that the situation in the country is developing in the wrong direction, while 35% of respondents are confident that the course is correct.
80% noted a worsening of the economic situation, as well as the financial situation of the family (60%). For comparison: 55% of respondents speak about a decrease in the cohesion of Ukrainians, and 54% about health problems.
Among the main threats, respondents most often name economic ones: a third of respondents fear further price increases and an economic crisis. 27% of respondents fear increased shelling, and 25% fear further occupation of territories.
However, the majority – about 70% – remain optimistic about Ukraine’s future and continue to believe in the country’s ability to repel a Russian attack.
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