The historian, who has been accurately predicting election results for 40 years, assessed the chances of Harris and Trump winning
The Keys to the White House system currently favors Vice President Kamala Harris in a hypothetical battle against Trump. However, the final forecast of the results of the 2024 presidential race has not yet been made, reports Fox News.
Photo: IStock
Keys to the White House is a 13-factor system developed by historian and political scientist Allan Lichtman to predict the outcome of US presidential elections. The system is based on historical data and analyzes economic, political and social factors. It includes aspects such as the state of the economy, scandals, social unrest and administration successes. If six or more factors are unfavorable to a party, it is likely to lose the election. Lichtman has used this system since 1984 and has accurately predicted the winners of every presidential election since then.
Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" consists of 13 questions that he believes provide a reliable indication of who will be named the winner in the fall vote. Each question is asked about two competing candidates; if a statement about a candidate is perceived as "true", the party is given a "clue", and if the answer is "false", the competitor receives a point. If one party's candidate receives six or more keys, he becomes the projected winner.
On the subject: How much does the US presidential election cost and who pays for it
At the start of the presidential campaign, Democrats were given an automatic "key" to President Biden's entry into office, but the ballot has since undergone dramatic changes.
The "keys" are as follows:
- party mandate;
- contest;
- current president;
- third party;
- short-term economics;
- long-term economics;
- policy change;
- social unrest;
- scandal;
- foreign/military failure;
- foreign/military success;
- effective charisma;
- applicant's charisma.
Democrats, whose likely presidential candidate is Harris, currently hold six of the 13 keys, according to Lichtman's forecast. These include, for example, short- and long-term economic policies, the absence of scandals and other factors.
Republicans have three “keys”: winning a House majority in the 2022 midterm elections, an incumbent who is not seeking reelection, and an incumbent who lacks charisma.
There are four more “keys” that have yet to be distributed.
The remaining keys include the third party factor, which Lichtman said is important, especially given the seat of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the race. (Kennedy previously attempted to run for the Democratic nomination, but announced his decision to continue campaigning as an independent candidate in October 2023. He is a critic of both major political parties.)
The "keys" are still up in the air due to the "lack of social unrest" as well as "foreign military failure" and "foreign military success".
You may be interested in: top New York news, stories of our immigrants and helpful tips about life in the Big Apple - read it all on ForumDaily New Y
If Democrats lose three more keys, they will become projected losers, according to Lichtman's formula.
The final outcome scenario for the 2024 election has yet to be determined, but Lichtman told News Nation he believes "a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose." The forecaster correctly predicted Trump's victory in 2016 and Biden's in 2020. The historian will make his final prediction after the election of the official Democratic nominee at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in August.
Read also on ForumDaily:
Biden withdrew from the election: who will replace him and what will happen next
Trump promises mass deportation of illegal immigrants: it will cost incredible amounts of money
Subscribe to ForumDaily on Google NewsDo you want more important and interesting news about life in the USA and immigration to America? — support us donate! Also subscribe to our page Facebook. Select the “Priority in display” option and read us first. Also, don't forget to subscribe to our РєР ° РЅР ° Р »РІ Telegram and Instagram- there is a lot of interesting things there. And join thousands of readers ForumDaily New York — there you will find a lot of interesting and positive information about life in the metropolis.
Editor's Choice
