What Americans Expect From Trump's Second Term: Not What They Wanted in 2016
Americans have mixed expectations about what President-elect Donald Trump will accomplish in his second term. Some of his goals seem achievable, while voters have little faith in others, writes Gallup.
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Americans are divided about what President-elect Donald Trump will accomplish in his second term. They expect success on seven policy goals but doubt he can handle eight others.
The biggest expectation is that Trump will control illegal immigration — 68% of American adults believe he will do so. Smaller but still significant groups believe he will reduce unemployment, secure the country from terrorism, improve the economy, avoid war, lower taxes, or reduce crime.
On the subject: Trump is going to return the Panama Canal, buy Greenland and annex Canada to the US
By contrast, most Americans do not think Trump can heal the country's political divisions, improve the environment, reform the health care system, improve race relations, raise education standards, significantly reduce the federal budget deficit, improve conditions for minorities and the poor, or lower the prices of food and other goods.
The public has less clear expectations on two issues: improving the federal government and making the United States more respected abroad. About half of those polled believe he will succeed, while the other half are skeptical.
Expectations for Trump's Second Term (2024)
Question: Regardless of which presidential candidate you supported, do you think a second term for Donald Trump could accomplish the following goals?
| Task | Yes, it can, % | No, it won't be able to, % | No opinion, % |
| Control illegal immigration | 68 | 28 | 4 |
| Reduce unemployment | 60 | 37 | 2 |
| Ensure the security of the United States from terrorism | 60 | 37 | 3 |
| Improve the economy | 58 | 39 | 3 |
| Avoid war | 55 | 41 | 4 |
| Reduce taxes | 54 | 44 | 2 |
| Reduce the crime rate | 51 | 45 | 4 |
| Increase respect for the United States abroad | 50 | 46 | 3 |
| Improve the functioning of the federal government | 47 | 49 | 3 |
| Reduce prices on food and other goods | 47 | 51 | 2 |
| Improve conditions for minorities and the poor | 46 | 53 | 1 |
| Significantly reduce the federal budget deficit | 45 | 53 | 2 |
| Improve education | 43 | 54 | 3 |
| Improve race relations | 41 | 56 | 2 |
| Improve the healthcare system | 40 | 56 | 3 |
| Improve the quality of the environment | 35 | 61 | 3 |
| Overcome political differences in the country | 33 | 64 | 3 |
Party affiliation has a strong influence on Americans' expectations of what Trump will accomplish in his upcoming term.
- Most Republicans (66% to 99%) are optimistic he can achieve each of the 17 goals covered in the poll.
- Most Democrats are skeptical of Trump's prospects on all issues. But a third or more of Democrats are positive about his chances of getting several key issues done, especially controlling illegal immigration.
- Independent voters' ratings roughly match national averages on all issues.
Trump II vs Trump I
Gallup also gauged Americans' expectations of Trump during the 2016 transition period, asking questions on 16 of the 17 topics covered today — all but price cuts.
Far more Americans now believe Trump will keep the country out of war, up 17 percentage points to 55%. In 2016, a majority (57%) doubted he could avoid war. The shift likely reflects Trump’s claims that Russia’s wars with Ukraine and Israel’s wars with Hamas would not have happened under his presidency, that he would end both wars quickly, and that “no new wars were started” in his first term.
In addition, belief that he can control illegal immigration has increased by 9 points since 2016, expectations for a decrease in crime have increased by 8 points, and expectations for an improvement in race relations have increased by 6 points. However, predictions on the last item are still largely negative.
On the other hand, Americans are less confident in 2024 than they were in 2016 that Trump will improve health care and education: optimistic percentages have fallen by 12 and 10 points, respectively. As a result, while in 2016 most Americans hoped for progress in these areas under Trump, the situation is now the opposite. There is also a 6-point decline (to 33%) in his rating of his ability to smooth over political differences in the country.
Expectations for Trump in the other nine policy areas assessed in both years have not changed significantly, including two goals that Trump has prioritized in his pledge to create a department of government efficiency headed by American entrepreneurs Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy: improving the federal government and reducing the budget deficit.
Predictions for Donald Trump's First and Second Term Presidents
| Question | November 2016 | December 2024 | Change, p.p. |
| Will keep the country from war | 38% | 55% | +17 |
| Controls illegal immigration | 59% | 68% | +9 |
| Will reduce the crime rate | 43% | 51% | +8 |
| Will improve race relations | 35% | 41% | +6 |
| Provides security from terrorism | 57% | 60% | +3 |
| Will reduce taxes | 51% | 54% | +3 |
| Increases respect for the United States abroad | 47% | 50% | +3 |
| Improve conditions for minorities and the poor | 44% | 46% | +2 |
| Improve the quality of the environment | 35% | 35% | 0 |
| Will significantly reduce the budget deficit | 46% | 45% | −1 |
| Will reduce unemployment | 62% | 60% | −2 |
| Will improve the economy | 60% | 58% | −2 |
| Will improve the functioning of the federal government | 49% | 47% | −2 |
| Heal political differences | 39% | 33% | −6 |
| Will improve education | 53% | 43% | −10 |
| Will improve the healthcare system | 52% | 40% | −12 |
Trump vs. Previous Presidents
Gallup has measured Americans' expectations on a variety of issues during presidential transitions since Ronald Reagan in 1980, as well as for three presidents who have won two terms: George W. Bush in January 2005, Barack Obama in 2012, and Donald Trump in 2024.
Given the differences in the questions assessed and the number of questions, it is impossible to determine exactly which president inspired the most optimism about the coming term. However, Barack Obama in 2008 stands out for scoring highest on eight of the 11 questions on which he was compared with Trump. That is the highest proportion of record ratings of any president in the study.
In the current poll, Trump scored highest among presidents-elect on two issues: controlling illegal immigration and reducing crime. Other incoming (or returning) presidents, including Trump himself in 2016, have scored highest on no more than one issue:
- George H. W. Bush received the highest rating (1988%) of any president in 70 on maintaining peace and preventing war.
- Confidence that Bill Clinton would improve health care reached 64% in 1992, matching Obama's level in 2008. The health care survey has been conducted for every president since Clinton.
- Before beginning his second term in 2005, George W. Bush received the highest rating (68%) of any president taking office since the September 11 attacks on the question of ensuring U.S. security from terrorism.
- Joe Biden's 2020 result (54%) on the question of improving race relations exceeded Trump's results in 2016 and 2024, as well as Bush Jr.'s score in 2001. The question was not asked for Reagan, Clinton, Bush Sr., and Obama.
- Forty-six percent of Americans in 46 thought Trump could significantly reduce the budget deficit. That’s in line with his 2016 performance (2024%), but it beats six other presidential performances since 45, most by significant amounts.
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Сonclusion
Americans are modest in their expectations of what a second Trump administration can accomplish, predicting successes and failures in about equal numbers across different areas. However, their expectations for his success in controlling illegal immigration and reducing crime are particularly high. A growing number of Americans expect him to do better in these areas than any other president.
And while confidence in Trump's ability to keep the country out of war is less pronounced than in his ability to achieve other goals, a sharp increase in the number of Americans who believe he can do so could play a major role in fulfilling expectations for his second term.
Achieving his goals may be a clear path to a strong presidential legacy, but progress in areas where he is least expected to make a difference can also have an impact. In this regard, improvements in areas such as education, health care, the environment, race relations, and social cohesion could be key goals for a second Trump term.
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