Harris vs Trump: what voter polls show

Opinion polls show Vice President Kamala Harris has narrowed the gap between Donald Trump and the Democratic nominee in the week since Joe Biden dropped out of the race. The latest three polls show Harris leading Trump by at least one point in a hypothetical matchup, writes Forbes.

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According to an Economist/YouGov poll released July 31, Harris leads Trump by two points (46% to 44%) in a five-candidate field. As a reminder, the other three candidates are Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West.

Harris leads Trump in at least four other polls taken since Biden dropped out of the presidential race. Although, it must be said, Trump is ahead of Harris in at least eight other polls. But they do show that Harris is eroding the Republican candidate's lead over the Democratic candidate, and her approval rating has been rising since she announced her candidacy.

On the subject: The historian, who has been accurately predicting election results for 40 years, assessed the chances of Harris and Trump winning

Harris moved up one point, 47% to 46%. At the same time, 4% of voters chose “someone else” and 4% were undecided, according to Morning Consult’s weekly poll conducted July 26-28. For the second week in a row, the poll shows her ahead of Trump.

Harris leads by one point, 43% to 42%, in the Reuters/Ipsos poll released July 30, down slightly from her two-point lead in the groups' previous poll conducted July 22-23.

Trump leads Harris by three points in the July 26-28 Harvard CAPS-Harris poll among 2196 registered voters (margin of error 2,1). Those surveyed were given the option to select the “don't know/unsure” answer, which ultimately resulted in a four-point drop in Trump's position compared to Trump's seven-point lead over Biden in the June Harvard CAPS-Harris poll. The latest poll shows Trump with a four-point lead over Harris in the two-way race, matching his lead over Biden in June.

Harris, with 47% to Trump's 49%, trails him in the July 23-25 ​​Wall Street Journal survey.

A July 26 HarrisX/Forbes poll of more than 3000 registered voters (margin of error 1,8) showed Vice President Harris trailing Trump by two points (45% to 47%).

The New York Times/Siena poll, conducted July 1142-22 among 24 voters, shows Trump leading Harris by one point (48% to 47%) among likely voters and by two points (48% to 46%) among registered voters.

Four other studies show Trump leading, with him leading Harris by three points (49% to 46%) in a CNN/SSRS online poll conducted July 22-23. The Morning Consult vote showed a two-point advantage (47% versus 45%). Trump leads by one point (46% to 45%) in the NPR/PBS/Marist poll and by three points (44% to 41%) in the July 21-23 Economist/YouGov poll, which showed Kennedy with 5 % support.

When Forbes/HarrisX asked whether they were favorably impressed by Harris, 44% said yes, compared with 44% who had a favorable view of Trump, 39% of Biden, 36% of Kennedy Jr. and 34% of his running mate. Trump to J.D. Vance.

An ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted July 26-27 says Harris's favorability rating has risen to 43%, up from 35% in the groups' previous July 19-20 survey, while Trump's favorability rating is 36%, and Biden - 37%.

Surveys of voter opinion consistently show Harris ahead of Biden, who trailed Trump by six points in Morning Consult, CNN/SSRS, The Wall Street Journal and Times/Siena polls before dropping out of the race.

A New York Times/Siena analysis found that voters became more interested in the presidential race after the Biden-Trump debate on June 27. After the debate, about 64% of respondents say they pay a lot of attention to the election, up from 48% before the debate.

Harris' position in swing states

The US vice president leads Trump by one point in seven swing states that are likely to decide the election - Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia, according to a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll from 24-28 July. Harris leads Trump in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada. Trump leads in Pennsylvania and North Carolina. Both candidates are tied in Georgia.

HarrisAccording to Democrats, preferable to Biden

Democrats are far more enthusiastic about Harris than they are about Biden, a Times/Siena poll found. Nearly 80% of Democratic-leaning voters want Harris as the nominee, compared with 48% of Democrats who said the same about Biden three weeks ago.

Fifty-six percent of voters polled by Reuters/Ipsos said Harris has a “sharp mind and can handle challenges,” compared with 56 percent who said the same about Trump and 49 percent who said the same about Biden. A 22th News/SurveyMonkey poll found that 19% of Americans agree with Biden's decision to end his campaign. A majority of respondents believe that this decision would be more likely to help the Democratic Party (87%) than the Republican Party (45%).

A 19th News poll found Americans are divided on whether Harris's gender and race will help or hurt her in the election. 31% of respondents think she will benefit from being a woman, compared to 33% who believe it will hurt her and 34% who don't think it matters.

Respondents were more optimistic about Harris being a black candidate with African and Indian heritage, with 32% saying it would benefit the election; 24% believe that it will harm; 41% are confident that skin color will not matter.

"Honeymoon" Harris

On average, RealClearPolitics polls show Trump leading Harris by 2 points, while he led Biden by 3,1 points.

Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio predicted a "short-term" rise in Harris' poll ratings in the coming weeks as her entry into the race is expected to energize Democrats. He called the expected rise "Harris' honeymoon" in a memo published shortly after the Reuters/Ipsos poll was released.

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For your information:

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after Democrats forced him to do so following a disastrous performance at the June 27 debate. Biden immediately endorsed Harris, and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly rallied around her, and she was supported by every Democratic governor and a majority of Democrats in Congress. Harris effectively secured the Democratic nomination as more than half of all delegates announced plans to formally vote for her nomination. This is expected to happen in the first week of August.

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