If you haven’t had COVID-19 yet, then you may never get sick: as doctors explain it - ForumDaily
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If you haven’t had COVID-19 yet, then you may never get sick: as doctors explain

For the 57% of Americans who have never had COVID-19, the question is what are the chances that they will never get sick. Can they lead a more normal life - go without masks in restaurants, shops and even at parties, reports San Francisco Chronicle.

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The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently estimated that about 43% of people in the US, or about 140 million people, have been infected with the coronavirus, meaning almost 60% have never had it. The estimate counts each person once, so some of the more than 140 million Americans estimated to have had COVID-19 may have been infected more than once.

During the omicron surge, experts and public health officials warned that the highly contagious variant would infect many people, but now they don't think infection with the virus is inevitable, at least not in the near future. But, they say, a delicate balance will be needed as we move into the “chronic” stage of COVID-19.

"From my point of view, no, it's not inevitable" within the next year or two, said UCSF chairman of medicine Dr. Bob Wachter, who has also not yet contracted COVID. He said that when the infection rate is low, as it is now in the Bay Area, the roughly 60% of the population who have not had COVID are unlikely to become infected "because they will not be exposed to very high levels."

He added that those who are vaccinated "remain relatively protected even if they do become infected."

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Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California, San Francisco, agreed, adding that while we are in the transition to an endemic stage of the virus, there is no clear answer to whether you will inevitably contract COVID in the long term. — but it doesn't have to be now.

“Are we going to get it all? Yes, biologically it can happen,” he said. “Is it time to just accept this philosophy?” No, because the virus still causes a lot of suffering. Almost 2000 deaths a day is no walk in the park.”

But Chin-Hong and other experts agree that with some vigilance, it is still possible to avoid the virus while enjoying life.

Chin-Hong said that for him it means still "getting busy with life, still eating indoors and all," while still maintaining his "spider-sense" in case of risky situations. For example, if the number of cases is high, as in January, "I'm not going to be in a crowded room," as he said.

“It’s a fine balance between anxiety and the desire to get back to what you have lost over the past few years, and this balance is not easy,” he added.

Dr. Abraar Karan, an infectious disease expert at Stanford, also said easing restrictions should not mean infection is inevitable.

“Basically, I still think there are things we can do to make things safer,” he said, adding that the government has an obligation to help people move towards a more normal life while staying safe by doing things like improving ventilation in buildings, especially places like schools, and make tests and masks widely available to those who need them.

He noted that for people who are risk-averse, immunocompromised, or otherwise trying to avoid infection entirely, a high-quality N95 mask allows you to go to the gym or shop and be relatively well protected.

Experts also said there are benefits to avoiding infection for now, even if you may catch the coronavirus later: The longer the pandemic lasts, the more we understand about the virus, meaning treatments are likely to be better, more effective. and more accessible.

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“The delay in infection is actually underestimated,” Karan said. “Who knows what we’ll have in six months or a year, right?” We will have even more measures to offer patients.”

While there are no guarantees in a pandemic, the most important thing is for people to start finding ways to get back to life while remaining flexible as the virus continues to fluctuate, experts say.

“Even for the highest-risk populations, there is a balance,” Chin-Hong said. “It’s about being involved in life and not being alone, and being responsible at all levels.”

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