Expert Forecasts: What to Expect from the Upcoming US Recession

Economists speculate that the next recession will be mediocre whenever it occurs. But for many people, their only or immediate recession experience was one of the highest.

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The last Great Recession of the 2007-2009 years lasted 18 months, which is longer than after the Second World War. For that period, foreclosures and long-term unemployment were characteristic. The consequences are still tangible today.

But this was not atypical, and economists expect the next recession to be less severe and not so long, because families with debts are in a better position, and banks are firmly on their feet.

While the economy is showing some problems, we still do not know that we are in a recession. In any case, we would not know, because the National Bureau of Economic Research announces this after what happened. However, some economists expect a possible economic downturn in 2020.

If this happens, what can be expected?

Say goodbye to jobs

Even in a mild recession, when job losses occur, it is “devastating” for anyone affected by it, says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

Others lose working hours, promotions and bonuses. Those who are not directly affected, personally know people who have lost their jobs, or the crisis has affected their family, friends or colleagues. This is a kind of ripple effect.

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Consider the 1991 recession and its impact in the Bronx, as chronicled by former Newsday reporter Gail Collins, now a New York Times columnist. The recession hit “like a flash flood and everyone felt it,” she wrote.

In the article, Collins talked to a guy—Jeremy—who offered to pump gas into a self-service station in the New York area. He once had a job working for Roy Rogers, but he got fired.

According to the article, the owner of a nearby children's clothing store thought about closing his store.

“This will be my last year. “I can’t hold on,” the store owner said at the time.

“Nobody has any money,” his clerk added.

Belt tightening

When a recession sets in, Americans are cutting back on spending. All travel, entertainment and dining expenses are reduced.

In an article published in 1982 by United Press International, it was noted that during the recession there was a recession for rock concerts and record sales.

A promoter from Dallas was even accused of breaking up The Doobie Brothers, which was on their last national tour during the recession. He noted that the group would not split up, “if the money poured as before,” the article says.

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According to UPI 1982 article of the year, Americans even refused to repair their own car in order to save money during the recession of the beginning of the 1980's.

“We're seeing a lot of people not ordering any services,” a spokesman for the Automotive Parts and Accessories Association said at the time. “This will continue unless the syndrome is stopped.”

Family life during a recession

Not spared and children.

An 1982 Associated Press article of the year described how Jane Heim, who wrote letters to children from Santa Claus, had to carefully choose words this year because of the recession.

“I have to tell them they may not get all the toys they ask for,” she said.

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“Due to unemployment and the poor economy as a whole, we expect many parents to attach a note that they will not be able to buy gifts for their children that they really need. This creates a very delicate situation, it must be treated with kindness, tact and understanding. ”

The Washington Post in its 1991 article of the year interviewed teens about how they are affected by the economic downturn. Among their answers were: reduced benefits, lack of jobs in the summer, fewer Christmas gifts.

Positive side

Many people turn the troubles of a recession into their opportunities.

In the 2001 year, USA TODAY reported that Andrea Papa, a single mother who had been reduced, turned around and opened her own media and marketing business. Another plus: she met her son when he returned home from school.

“When I was laid off, one door was closed, but there are so many other doors to choose from,” she said.

Another 1991 article of the year, published in The Advertiser in Australia, states that recession in this country stimulates people's sex life.

“Sales of erotic lingerie and sex products are booming as couples spend time at home enjoying each other's company,” the article said.

Even during a recession, there are always positive points.

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