Two years of the Minsk agreements: what happens in the Donbass

Фото: Depositphotos

5 September 2014 was signed in Minsk (Belarus) providing for a truce in the Donbass: withdrawal of heavy weapons, silence, as well as a number of political steps, such as the special status of Donbass, the holding of elections in this territory.

What is the situation in the east of Ukraine now, after 2, after the agreements

According to information ATO press center, shelling of the Ukrainian army by terrorists occurs every day.

September 7 had a few:

In the Luhansk region, terrorists fired three times at the Ukrainian army with small arms.

Donetsk region

The fighting was conducted only in Avdiivka. Terrorists 3 fired at night. Each of them lasted 20-30 minutes. Heavy weapons are not used. As a result of these attacks, a civilian woman was seriously wounded.

In the Mariupol area, illegal armed groups were very active. The epicenter of the fighting was Shyrokyne, where an 2 session of enemy shelling took place. The terrorists used armored vehicles and organized 4 mortar shelling, firing more than 60 mines on the Ukrainian positions. They also violated the silence regime in Marinka, Starognatovka and on the sector of the Vodyanoe-Talakovka front.

In just the past day, 15 enemy shelling occurred on the Mariupol area.

As a result of the September 6-7 hostilities, there are no dead in the ranks of the Ukrainian troops, one soldier was injured.

Confirmed terrorist casualties: 1 dead and 4 wounded.

ATO card as of September 7

Infographics: press center of the ATO

Ukrainian experts recognize that the implementation of the Minsk peace accords is a dead end, but none of the parties to the first agreement will not refuse, writes with the BBC.

The agreement, renewed at the beginning of 2015, contributed to a reduction in the intensity of the battles and the partial withdrawal of weapons from the contact line, but a complete ceasefire for 2 did not occur.

Political negotiations on the implementation of Minsk are virtually frozen - now there is another attempt at a complete ceasefire. Without this, as the participants in the agreements admit, it is too early to talk about implementing the political points regarding Donbass.

Against this background, just on the second anniversary of Minsk at the G20 summit in China, the leaders of Germany and France once again discussed the situation in Donbass with Russian President Vladimir Putin and tried to revive the negotiations.

Minsk-1

The first Minsk agreements were concluded on September 5, 2014, after the defeat of the Ukrainian troops at Ilovaisk. Then, militant troops suddenly appeared in Novoazovsk, which was on the border with Russia, where there were no militants until the end of August 2014. There was also the threat of taking Mariupol, which was controlled by the Ukrainian authorities.

Russia denies the presence of its troops in the Donbass. However, Vladimir Putin admits that some Russian specialists perform certain military tasks there.

The agreement provided for a ceasefire, and then the decentralization of power in Ukraine, the adoption of a special law on self-government in certain areas of Donbass, monitoring of the border by OSCE experts, the release of all prisoners, the adoption of an amnesty law for participants in the Donbass and local elections under Ukrainian laws.

The first transaction radically reduced the intensity of the fighting, but the fire did not completely stop. Ukraine approved laws on self-government in the Donbass and amnesty, but they did not enter into force.

But in the fall of 2014, the militants held elections by their own rules, which were not recognized by Ukraine and the OSCE. After that, the execution of Minsk stopped.

In January, 2015, the conflict broke out with a new force. The militants launched an offensive near Donetsk airport and after a long assault on 21 in January, they were able to take it.

At the same time, full-scale battles began near Debaltsev, which was controlled by Ukrainian troops.

February 12 After a long night of negotiations, the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany agreed on new Minsk agreements providing for a full cease-fire on February 2015.

Already 18 February, the militants took control of Debaltseve, and Ukrainian troops fought their way out of the encirclement.

Фото: Depositphotos

Minsk-2

The set of measures to implement the Minsk agreements, or Minsk-2, as those agreements were shortly called, was signed by representatives of Ukraine, Russia, the OSCE and the self-proclaimed DNR and LNR.

However, the declaration in support of the agreement was signed by the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany.

Minsk-2 envisaged a cease-fire, a gradual withdrawal of weapons from the line of demarcation, exchange of prisoners, the beginning of political dialogue, holding local elections on Ukrainian legislation, an amnesty to participants in the conflict, the provision of a special procedure for self-government in certain areas of Donbass and Ukraine control over the entire border.

To implement the agreement, a special tripartite group was created, but none of the Minsk-2 points were executed, starting with the cease-fire.

Until September 2015, full-scale battles with the use of armored vehicles continued, as was the case with the assault by militants of Marinka near Donetsk.

From 1 September 2015, the parties managed to negotiate an almost total ceasefire that lasted several weeks. At the same time, the sides practically diverted artillery and large-caliber weapons from the contact line.

However, already in 2016, the OSCE began again to record the widespread use of “withdrawn” weapons and artillery by both sides of the conflict.

The implementation of the political provisions of Minsk-2 stopped when the Verkhovna Rada in the first reading voted for amendments to the Constitution mentioning the special self-government of Donbass.

The Ukrainian side insists that there can be no approval of the project until the cease-fire and the resolution of security issues. The same applies to the conduct of elections in the Donbass under Ukrainian law.

In 2016, the Ukrainian side at the talks began to talk about the need for an armed OSCE mission in the Donbas to control the border, to which the Russian side and the militants do not agree.

In the summer of 2016, the security situation in Donbass deteriorated significantly, and the OSCE special observation mission constantly reports an increase in the number of attacks, without specifying which side.

The economic sanctions imposed on Russia, as Angela Merkel has repeatedly pointed out, are tied to Moscow’s implementation of the Minsk Agreements and will be valid at least until the end of 2016.

However, negotiations in Minsk and in the Normandy format between the leaders of France, Russia, Germany and Ukraine were effectively frozen after the Crimean incident in early August 2016.

Then, Russia accused Ukraine of sending saboteurs to the Crimea for terrorist acts, after which Vladimir Putin refused to continue negotiations with Ukraine.

Kyiv rejected the accusations regarding Crimea, and Putin’s proposal to hold a meeting of the Normandy Four without Ukraine was not accepted by its European partners.

The hope of resolving the situation was given by an attempt of a complete cease-fire from 1 September 2016, as they tried to do a year ago.

Фото: Depositphotos

Deadlock and reanimation of Minsk

Neither Ukraine nor Russia can execute the Minsk agreements.

The Ukrainian authorities cannot agree to grant special status to militants and legitimize them through elections without gaining control over the border.

Russia, on the other hand, also cannot agree to transfer control over the border to Ukraine, because it will deprive it of the ability to support militants.

Despite the suspension of the implementation of the agreements, a diplomatic game continues around them. Sanctions against Russia are tied to Minsk, and therefore neither Kyiv nor Moscow want to be “guilty” of breaking the agreement.

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