2020 - flowers: experts say it will only get worse in the future - ForumDaily
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2020 is a bright year: experts say the future will only get worse

A record amount of California is on fire due to nearly 20 years of mega-drought. In addition, the fire has engulfed parts of Oregon, where flattering fires usually do not occur. But if you think 2020 will be the worst year of your life, this might be a mistake. Writes about it New York Post.

Photo: Shutterstock

Meanwhile, the 16th and 17th named tropical storms are raging in the Atlantic Ocean, a record number for this time of year. A powerful typhoon Haishen struck Japan and the Korean Peninsula. Last month, temperatures hit 130 degrees Fahrenheit (54,4 Celsius) in Death Valley, a record on Earth in nearly a century.

Phoenix continues to set triple-digit rainfall records, while Colorado went through a 90-degree temperature swing (32,2 Celsius) - from hot to snowy in just 100 hours. Siberia, known for its icy climate, hit 37,7 degrees (XNUMX Celsius) earlier this year, accompanied by wildfires. Before this, Australia and the Amazon were also engulfed in fires.

Amid all this, the Iowa derecho—straight-line, powerful winds that caused billions of dollars in damage—went largely unnoticed.

Strange natural disasters - most of which scientists say are likely linked to climate change - seem to only happen in the crazy year of 2020. But experts say that in a few years, we'll likely look back at 2020 and say those were the good old days, when natural disasters were few and far between.

On the subject: Winters are getting shorter and summers are getting hotter: how global warming is changing seasonality

“It’s going to get a lot worse,” said Georgia Tech climate scientist Kim Cobb.

The head of the Department of Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Walid Abdalati, a former chief scientist at NASA, said the trend towards worsening disasters and climate change is no longer in doubt.

“I firmly believe that we will look back in 10, 20 and 50 years and say, 'Wow, 2020 was crazy, but I miss it,'” Abdalati said.

What's happening now is exactly the type of crazy climate change that was expected 10 or 20 years ago.

“This feels like something we were talking about ten years ago,” said NC State climate scientist Katie Dello.

Regardless, Cobb said it was difficult then to imagine the scale of what is happening now. Just as it is now difficult to imagine the future of climate disasters.

“A year like 2020 would have been the subject of a wonderful sci-fi movie in 2000,” Cobb said. “Now we have to watch and digest disaster after disaster in real time, in addition to the pandemic. It's just a terrifying prospect."

“The 2030s will be markedly worse than the 2020s,” she said.

Climate scientist Jonathan Overpeck, Dean of the Department of Environment at the University of Michigan, said that 30 years from now due to climate change, "we are facing disasters twice as bad as we are now."

Stronger winds, more drought, heavy rainfall and flooding are to be expected, Abdalati said.

“What we are seeing is not surprising to the scientific community, which understands the rules and laws of physics,” Abdalati said.

On the subject: The planet began climate change, which was expected only by the end of the century

“A lot of people want to blame it on 2020, but it wasn’t the year’s fault,” Dello said. “We ourselves caused climate change.”

“Look at the world's environment as a driver: we put more energy into the system and trap more heat in the atmosphere,” said World Meteorological Organization secretary-general Petteri Taalas.

This means more energy for tropical storms, as well as changes in rainfall patterns that are causing drought in some places and heavy rainfall in others, Taalas said.

In California, where more than 2,3 million acres have burned, fires are caused by climate change drying up plants and trees that then ignite, said Jennifer Balch, a fire safety specialist at the University of Colorado. California is in the midst of a nearly 20-year mega-drought, the first in the United States since the arrival of Europeans, Overpeck said.

Scientists are also establishing a direct link between heatwaves and climate change.

Some disasters currently cannot be directly linked to anthropogenic warming, such as Derecho, Overpeck said. But if you look at the big picture over time, you can see a problem that boils down to the basics of physics.

“I'm not an alarmist. I don’t want to scare people,” Abdalati said. “But this is a problem with huge consequences.”

And so while the climate is likely to get worse, Overpeck is also optimistic about what future generations will think when they look back on the wild and dangerous 2020 weather.

“I think we'll look back and see a whole bunch of crazy years,” Overpeck said. “But I hope we can look back and say that 2020 was crazy enough to motivate us to act on climate change.”

Read also on ForumDaily:

An abnormal 2020 continues: hurricanes, droughts and floods are yet to come

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Winters are getting shorter and summers are getting hotter: how global warming is changing seasonality

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