Rain, floods and tornadoes: severe storm heading for Florida

Florida is bracing for unsettled weather that could look like a tropical storm. Forecasting Center FOX reported that an unusually strong area of ​​low pressure will form Friday night into Saturday (December 15-16) over the Gulf of Mexico.

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As this area strengthens, winds and rain will increase throughout Florida, and there will even be a risk of severe weather and tornadoes in the central part of the state.

Numerous flood and wind warnings will be issued across the state over the weekend, and preparations are underway in coastal communities to prepare for beach erosion. Some are still recovering from last year's major storms like Hurricanes Ian and Nicole.

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Tropical storm gusts possible this weekend in Florida

Gusty winds are already being felt in parts of Florida on December 15 as high pressure over the eastern US interacts with developing low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico.

The pressure gradient between the two will continue to strengthen over the weekend, bringing increasingly strong and gusty northeasterly winds and gale-force winds in Atlantic waters across much of South Florida.

The strongest winds will occur just over the East Coast, where wind speeds could reach 40-45 mph with isolated gusts. Warnings have been issued from Daytona Beach south along the East Coast to Miami.

The winds were so strong that they pushed water out of Tampa Bay. Easterly winds act as a reverse storm surge. Similar situations have occurred during severe storms, such as Hurricane Irma.

How Much Rain Will Florida Get This Weekend?

As this low matures and moves northeast into the state, it will pull significant amounts of moisture from ocean waters, resulting in widespread rainfall, according to the FOX Forecast Center.

Some of that rain will be so heavy Saturday night and early Sunday morning (December 16-17) that it will cause flash flooding. This will be especially true for the South Florida urban corridor from Fort Lauderdale to Miami, which has already received tens of inches more than average annual rainfall.

In Central Florida, flash flood risk is possible from Tampa to Orlando.

The threat of severe storms will increase on the evening of December 16

The FOX Forecast Center is looking at, among other things, the possibility of severe storms on the evening and night of December 16th.

If there is enough instability and increased low winds, rotating thunderstorms may develop on December 16th. These thunderstorms are capable of producing brief tornadoes, especially after sunset.

“It's a threat for overnight tornadoes,” FOX Weather meteorologist Britta Merwin said of Saturday. “You need to be alert and monitor the situation.” Once we see where this storm is forming, we can determine where the likelihood of a tornado will be highest."

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has shifted and expanded the risk south, and now most of Florida is at Level 2 of 5 on the severe thunderstorm risk scale, including Tampa, Fort Myers, and now Miami, although Orlando has been downgraded from Level 2 to Level 1. as the latest forecasts point to a more southerly path for the storm's center.

The greatest risk for tornadoes will be near a low pressure center that will enter Florida, although its exact location has not yet been determined as the storm is still developing.

“We'll see the most tornadoes closest to the low pressure center,” added FOX Weather Meteorologist Bob Van Dillen. “And it will be in the warm sector between the warm and cold fronts, which is where we have the most concern.”

Flood warning in effect for Florida

Due to excess rainfall and winds, the potential for flooding will continue into the weekend.

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Coastal flood warnings are in effect from the Daytona Beach area south through the Space Coast in Brevard County and through Vero Beach and Port St. Lucie.

Additionally, similar warnings are in effect from the Palm Coast area north through St. Augustine, Ponte Verda and Jacksonville. They extend into Georgia, including the city of Brunswick.

Floods are not the only danger. High surf warnings are in effect along the entire Atlantic coast of Florida and even in coastal communities in Georgia.

The National Weather Service office in Melbourne, Florida, warns that waves as high as 13 feet (3,9 m) could crash ashore, causing significant beach erosion and coastal flooding.

On Sunday, December 17, the weather will begin to calm from south to north as the storm moves up the East Coast carrying wind, rain and flooding threats into the mid-Atlantic early next week and eventually into the Northeast.

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