Unexpectedly: impeachment can help Trump win the 2020 presidential election of the year
Despite the high-profile political scandal that is now unfolding around U.S. President Donald Trump and the threat of impeachment, the head of the White House will be able to take part in the next presidential election, and Republicans believe that he will easily defeat them at all. Writes about it with the BBC.
Trump issued a new statement that caused considerable amazement in Washington. Answering journalists' questions on the southern lawn of the White House, the president not only confirmed that he was really addressing the Ukrainian authorities requesting an investigation into former vice president Joe Biden and his son hunter, but also called on Beijing conduct a similar investigation.
Who supports impeachment
In late September, Democrats, with most seats in the House of Representatives, announced beginning of a formal impeachment procedure. The reason was the complaint of an anonymous intelligence officer, who said that during a telephone conversation with Vladimir Zelensky, the American president asked to resume the investigation of the Biden family in Ukraine.
A week earlier, the US administration froze the allocation of US $ 391 million of military assistance already approved by Congress to Kiev. In Congress, the president’s actions were considered “using his official position for personal political purposes”, initiating the impeachment procedure.
The initiative received widespread support in Congress: impeachment now supports 226 members of the House of Representatives, although a week ago the number of supporters of Trump's removal was far more modest - 136 members of Congress.
Support for impeachment among voters is also growing. According to the latest poll conducted by USA Today, 45% of voters support the resignation of the US president and only 38% support the head of the White House.
How is Trump defending himself against impeachment?
Trump immediately called the Democrats initiative “witch hunt” and “nonsense.” In the same way, the president spoke about the investigation of special prosecutor Robert Muller about Russian interference in the 2016 elections of the year.
Trump conducted a series of aggressive attacks on impeachment supporters. is he proposed to arrest Adam Schiff, head of the Democratic Intelligence Committee of the House of Representatives, accusing him of high treason.
Contrary to law, the president asked for a personal meeting with an informant who filed a complaint after his telephone conversation with the president of Ukraine. He also stated, again against the law, that the rules for protecting such informants had “recently changed” and that he could find out his personal data.
At the same time, Trump characterized his negotiations with Vladimir Zelensky as "ideal." He called the impeachment initiative “a coup”, warning that this could lead to a civil war in the United States.
True, anonymous sources in Washington told American publications that the presidential administration was seriously considering the threat of impeachment and had already begun to form a special team of lawyers to dispute the allegations against the president.
Who is opposed to impeachment?
GOP political strategists have publicly argued that the Democrats initiative will only increase Trump's popularity.
Presidential Assistant Daniel Skavino, Jr., in charge of social media, followed the president by publishing a map of constituencies, 99% red painted by the Republican Party, with a message saying "Try to impeach them all."
Later, however, it turned out that the card is not true.
The head of the Trump election headquarters, Brad Parskale, cited his own data, saying that after the announcement of the impeachment process was announced, the flow of donations to the Trump election fund has grown significantly.
In just a week, they managed to raise 13 million dollars, said Parskale. In just the third quarter of 2019, the Republican Party National Committee managed to raise 125 millions.
Contributions to the election campaign of Joe Biden and other Trump opponents from individuals have also increased, but the Democrats have not yet managed to beat this figure.
Historians in the United States are also convinced that the seemingly imminent impeachment will not prevent Donald Trump from winning the 2020 election of the year.
Will Trump run for election?
According to experts, the impeachment initiated by the Democrats is really not like previous attempts to oust the American presidents, and now no one can guess how events will develop.
Calls for the removal of current presidents from office over the past 200 years in the United States sounded repeatedly, but only three of them - Andrew Johnson, Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton - had to face the threat of formal impeachment. The Senate, however, did not satisfy the demand of the House of Representatives for the resignation of Johnson and Clinton, Nixon himself resigned without waiting for the decision of the legislators, and none of them claimed to be re-elected.
After President Johnson was acquitted by the Senate, his own party did not nominate him for presidency. Both Nixon and Clinton at the time of the scandal were already in the White House for a second term and, according to the constitution, could not pretend to participate in the elections.
In contrast, Donald Trump has already formed his election headquarters, and the US constitution allows him to take part in the 2020 elections of the year, even if the Democrats initiative is successful and he will be forced to leave the White House.
The authors of the US Basic Law, approved in 1788, considered impeachment a new (civilized and “less bloody”) method of removing the head of state from power than other methods common at that time in European countries.
The founders of the country granted the right to impeach only the House of Representatives, where a simple majority can do this, and the Senate only the right to remove the president from power, where at least two-thirds of legislators should support impeachment.
At the same time, the president, who, according to the constitution, can release any citizen of the country from punishment for any crime, was deprived of the right to have mercy on himself in case of impeachment.
At the same time, the constitution also restricted the rights of senators: as a result of impeachment, they only got the chance to remove the president from power, but they could not prohibit further work in the public service or hold elected posts.
In addition to impeachment against the president, the Senate is also considering charges requiring removal from office in relation to federal judges and senior state officials.
In US history, similar processes were initiated in 17 cases. At the same time, only 14 of them passed the judicial review procedure in the upper house of Congress, only eight “suspects” were found guilty, and only in three cases did the senators decide that the accused no longer had the right to be in the civil service or to participate in the elections.
The fate of the rest of the impeached officials was not so sad. In 1989, for example, federal judge Elsie Hastings was removed from office for giving false testimony and conspiring to receive a bribe. This did not stop him in the 1993 year from being elected to the US Congress, where he still represents one of the counties of the state of Florida.
The prosecution was represented by the prosecutor Adam Schiff, who now actually leads an investigation into the president’s actions as part of the impeachment process.
According to the law professor of Ohio State University William Fowley, in the event of impeachment of President Trump, senators should take into account the story of Judge Hastings and not prohibit the current head of the White House from participating in the 2020 election of the year.
The lawyer is sure that only voters have the right to decide whether Trump deserves another chance.
When can impeachment be declared
Speaker of the House of Representatives Democrat Nancy Pelosi said that lawmakers can hold a final vote on the impeachment of Trump at the end of November this year.
Experts in Washington, however, doubt that members of Congress will be able to meet such a short time.
“Even if this happens, Republicans with a majority in the Senate can drag out the process indefinitely,” said political consultant Richard Chrysler.
On the subject: 'Look at these two people': will Trump and Zelensky get along
“It is possible that the Senate will be able to issue a final verdict only at the very height of the 2020 presidential campaign of the year or even between the day of voting and the inauguration of the president,” Chrysler added. “If Trump wins this election, I have no idea how Congress will be able to remove him from power without provoking the outrage of his supporters.”
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