What is a 'red mirage' and a 'blue shift', and how could they affect the US presidential election?

A "red mirage" or "blue shift" is the name given to the situation when, in the last presidential election, the Republicans' clear lead immediately after the polls closed disappeared after the mail-in ballots were counted. Then the situation changed dramatically by the morning of the following election day. The agency investigated whether a similar situation is possible in the upcoming elections CNN.

Photo: Andrii Yalanskyi | Dreamstime.com

45th President Donald Trump invoked a "red mirage" to bolster baseless claims of election fraud, when in fact the situation was a result of too many mail-in ballots due to the coronavirus pandemic.

What happened in 2020 year

When most Americans went to bed on November 3, election night 2020, the end result was far from clear.

On the subject: Who will win the election: stock market dynamics predicted the future US president

It was too early to call the contest between then-President Trump and now-President Biden in the key states of Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Dramatic hours of vote counting lay ahead in those states. That count did not reflect Biden’s lead in Georgia until the early morning hours of November 6.

CNN was able to project Biden as the winner of the election four days after Election Day, November 7. But votes were still being counted. An analysis by researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology found that counties that Biden won counted votes more slowly, on average, than counties that Trump won.

There was a blue shift in 2016, too, but it wasn’t decisive. As CNN’s Marshall Cohen wrote, when Hillary Clinton conceded and publicly acknowledged her defeat the day after the election, she was still trailing in the popular vote. While the influx of ballots wasn’t enough to win her the White House, it was more than enough to give her a lead of millions of ballots in the popular vote.

The slowest vote-counting states in 2020 were Democratic-dominated states like California, where every registered voter is mailed a ballot. That means a “blue shift” in popular votes could still happen, even if it doesn’t delay the presidential election results.

It’s important to remember that while news networks like CNN may project a winner, the election result is not officially certified until later. Certification deadlines vary from state to state, but all have until December 11, 2024, to complete recounts, if necessary, and settle disputes about the presidential election results.

How long will the counting take this year?

There are some signs that things could move forward quite quickly in some key states.

In Georgia, a new election law means more people will vote early in person rather than by mail, which could speed up the process of counting mail ballots. North Carolina no longer accepts mail ballots if they arrive after Election Day.

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a Republican, recently told CBS's Face the Nation that he expects the vast majority of ballots to be processed and counted within hours of polls closing.

“All early votes and all early ballots will have to be in by 70 p.m., and 75% or even 2020% of all votes will be in by XNUMX p.m. on election night,” he said. But if Georgia’s election drags on, as it did in XNUMX, the outcome may still be unclear.

Raffensperger was asked whether it might take a week to determine a winner in Georgia.

"Absolutely not," he replied. "We'll wait until the overseas ballots arrive no later than Friday, and then those will be the final numbers. And we'll just see if that affects the overall voting results."

Other states, like key battleground states Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, have not given election officials the ability to process any ballots until Election Day. But the count could go faster in those places, too. There will be fewer mail-in ballots this year than in the 2020 election, which took place amid a pandemic. The Center for Election Innovation and Research has compiled a quick overview of the various rules and deadlines for processing mail-in ballots.

In Michigan, another key state where ballots could be processed before Election Day, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson was also asked how long it would take to count the votes. Benson, a Democrat, said she hoped to know the results by the end of Wednesday, Nov. 6, the day after polls closed.

"We will always prioritize accuracy and safety over efficiency," she noted.

Pennsylvania's top elections official is Republican Al Schmidt, who recently said people should trust the system after the polls close.

"In 2000, we saw that period of time between the polls closing at 8 p.m. on election night and the results of the race being announced as a period when people didn't trust the results," he said.

You may be interested in: top New York news, stories of our immigrants and helpful tips about life in the Big Apple - read it all on ForumDaily New York

That election was fought between then-Vice President Al Gore (Democrat) and Texas Governor George W. Bush (Republican). The outcome was controversial, particularly due to disagreements over the vote count in Florida. The results of that year's election dragged on for more than a month, 36 days to be exact, until the U.S. Supreme Court halted a partial recount in Florida, effectively handing the victory to George W. Bush. Then-Vice President Al Gore conceded defeat on December 13, becoming one of only three vice presidents to oversee the counting of the electoral votes that handed him the defeat.

Just as no one knows who will win the 2024 election, it is not entirely clear how long it will take to determine the winner this year.

Read also on ForumDaily:

Trump secretly called Putin and sent him COVID-19 tests: excerpts from scandalous new book

Trump's 2020 Election Crackdown Case: Prosecutor Provides New Evidence

The historian, who has been accurately predicting election results for 40 years, assessed the chances of Harris and Trump winning

Do you want more important and interesting news about life in the USA and immigration to America? — support us donate! Also subscribe to our page Facebook. Select the “Priority in display” option and read us first. Also, don't forget to subscribe to our РєР ° РЅР ° Р »РІ Telegram  and Instagram- there is a lot of interesting things there. And join thousands of readers ForumDaily New York — there you will find a lot of interesting and positive information about life in the metropolis.