What happens if California withdraws from the US - ForumDaily
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What happens if California leaves the United States

This is very, very, well, just extremely unlikely. However, if we try to figure out what will happen, if the withdrawal of the state of California from the USA does happen, we will discover many interesting things about the current United States.

Фото: Depositphotos

American public opinion has become increasingly divided in recent years. According to the Pew Research Center, average Republicans are more conservative than 97% Democrats, while average Democrats are more liberal than 95% Republicans, Air force.

In 1994, these numbers were: 64% and 70%, respectively. According to some scholars, the ideological tension has never been so high in our memory.

“We would have to go back as far as the 1890s, say, to the period immediately after the Civil War, if we want to find anything like today's highly polarized society,” says Bernard Grofman, a political scientist at the University of California, Irvine. “The division in Congress has reached levels we haven’t seen in over 100 years.”

California is no exception. Over the past few years, divisions both within the state and between California and the rest of the United States have spawned at least six initiatives aimed at dividing California into smaller states, or even secession from the United States.

According to Monica Toft, a professor of international politics at Tufts University (Boston), among the arguments in favor of one plan or another were: the conviction that the federal government no longer represents the economic interests of California; that the state is so large that normal management is possible only by dividing it into smaller parts; that the contradictions between California and the rest of the country are irreconcilable.

Let's be clear: unless something out of the ordinary happens, California is not going to secede from the United States - at least in the foreseeable future.

The country's constitution denies the states' right to do so, and there is very little evidence that Californians really want to leave the United States.

A 2017 survey of the year by thousands of Californians, conducted by the University of California (Berkeley), showed that 68% (both Republicans and Democrats) are against such an initiative.

However, thinking about what would happen if the state suddenly broke away from the rest of the United States is very useful - it will become much clearer to us about the balance of power and politics in the current country.

Civil War?

The first and key question that arises as soon as we begin to make predictions on this subject is this: will it not lead to an outbreak of violence, or even to a real war?

Another US Civil War? Sounds unlikely, right? However, remember: 157 years ago, Southerners also did not expect that this would happen when they decided to secede from the north. Then a civil war broke out, killing about 620 thousands of Americans. The country was shaken to the ground.

“It seems fantastic that another war would break out in the United States because states would secede from the country,” says Toft. - But if you had talked to people in the middle of the 19th century, they would have told you the same thing - it can’t be! So the United States is by no means immune from this.”

If you look at the history of other countries, then attempts to break away from the state more than once led to violence. When Bangladesh decided to become independent in 1971, Pakistan responded with genocide and mass rape. Eritrea’s war on independence from Ethiopia dragged on for 30 years.

Фото: Depositphotos

Of course, not always events unfold in this way. Some countries have experienced this quite peacefully.

In 1993, as a result of the so-called Velvet Revolution, there was a “velvet divorce” of the Czech Republic and Slovakia, which had previously been parts of the Czechoslovak Socialist Republic. So the current Brexit, despite the exchange of harsh rhetoric between the EU and Britain, is happening peacefully.

Will the US federal government want to forcibly overcome California's withdrawal from the country? It greatly depends on who will be in power by that time, says Stephen Saydemen, a professor of international relations at Carleton University (Ottawa, Canada).

“Republicans will likely say good riddance, while Democrats might say we have to keep California in the United States or we'll be sidelined forever,” he muses.

However, unlike the war between the North and the South, there is no such fundamental dividing point as the attitude towards slavery. And most scholars agree that Californians and other Americans are one nation with more or less the same values, so war is very difficult to imagine.

“Californians are not the Kurds in Iraq, the Catalans in Spain, or the Irish in the United Kingdom,” says Brendan O'Leary, a political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania. “I can’t imagine that the Pentagon generals would obey orders to occupy California by force.”

Political turmoil and a blow to the economy

Democrats' fears could become reality following California's secession. It is the largest state by population, and its departure would radically change the country's political landscape. There will be a serious shift in power towards complete Republican control of Congress.

Moreover, losing California's votes will virtually end America's hope for a Democratic president, at least in the near future.

“Politically, Democrats are going to be in a deep, deep hole,” Seideman says. “Since the early 1990s, they have always relied on California during the presidential election.”

Representatives of the Democrats in the United States, it seems, will have to change their policy a little, shift it to the right. “If you no longer have California to hold the Democratic Party's ground, that will seriously shift the center of political gravity,” Grofman says.

The best outcome for Democrats in an America without California, he continues, would be a more centrist political arena—much like what it was during the presidency of Dwight Eisenhower (1953-1961), when cross-party consensus made it possible to solve big problems like building a highway system that connected the country.

But whatever the upheavals of the US political system, we emphasize: the loss of California will also lead to a powerful blow to the economy of the state that has lost one state.

California's economy is the fifth largest in the world. In 2017, it generated a profit of $2,7 trillion - more than the economy of the entire UK.

It also contributes more to the federal tax treasury than any other state, offsetting the costs and losses of Republican states, O'Leary said.

The extent of the damage to the US economy will depend on whether the leaders of the two countries - the old USA and the new California - agree on free trade or whether tariff barriers are erected. However, in any case, the United States will not escape unscathed.

"The dollar is going to collapse," O'Leary says. “The euro and the Chinese yuan will replace it as the world currency.”

A divided United States will lose weight on the international stage and become more dependent on its allies. The old “special relationship” (such as with Great Britain) will be tested by the new reality.

Since the United States is likely to improve greatly, a rapprochement with states ruled by “strong hand” adherents is possible, for example, with Hungary and Russia.

But relations with Canada (which, as a rule, improve when leaders from the same political spectrum are in power in both states) deteriorate. As with Mexico, since the governing government of the United States will be tough on immigrants.

On the other hand, California can be an attractive ally for liberal countries.

“Suddenly, instead of a US-China bipolar system, we will see a multipolar world (USA, China, California, India, and so on),” Seideman notes. “In international relations, multipolar systems significantly confuse matters, since all sorts of alliances begin to play an important role.”

California would begin to compete for leadership in solving many of the problems of the world community and in issues such as global warming would certainly play a leading role.

However, its progress would be restrained by US practice, including the weakening of the norms limiting harmful emissions and environmental pollution, says Sideman.

Фото: Depositphotos

Pier for immigrants?

California would look more attractive to immigrants than the United States. The new country would certainly continue to attract innovators from around the world to Silicon Valley and to work in its space agency. It is possible that indulgences would be made for less skilled labor.

“Given the large Hispanic population in California and the role that agriculture plays here, I can imagine that a new country would want to create new immigrant rules that would be attractive to people from Central America and other parts of the world,” O'Leary believes.

On the other hand, southern California may be favorable towards immigrants, while the more conservative north may be opposed.

“If you look at the map of voting in the last presidential election, we will see areas that are both completely red and completely blue. And the areas in between,” Toft points out. “California is not necessarily liberal.”

In addition, as Grofman adds, immigration is characterized by such a thing: as soon as you become a citizen of a new country, you demand that its borders be closed to others. And there is no guarantee that things will be different in independent California.

The secession of California is unlikely to provoke a flood of liberals who have decided to exchange the United States for the former Golden State, just like the exodus of Republicans from it.

“I'm an American living in Canada,” Sideman says. “After every election [in the US], everyone says, “I’m leaving for Canada.” But no one leaves. If California suddenly secedes, there may initially be a small flow of liberal settlers. But it will not be as serious as many imagine. And the reason will mainly be finding a job.”

But California's departure could trigger a domino effect - other parts of the US will also want independence.

The Northeast, for example, will be very annoyed because in a country dominated by Republicans, there is no hope of winning his candidate in the presidential election.

Thus, the chain of states stretching from Maryland north to Maine (and west to Pennsylvania) may decide that the only way to escape the Republican majority is to secede from the United States.

History knows examples of this development. Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova and other Soviet republics declared independence only after Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania did it.

“In this hypothetical situation, you can imagine that residents of the Northeast will think that since Washington allowed California to get away with impunity, then he will probably let us go too,” Seideman reflects.

Florida and parts of Texas can follow the northeast.

And then other states, many of which have economic potential and a population sufficient for a small country, may decide that they no longer have any reason to remain a single state.

In other words, California’s withdrawal from the United States could be the beginning of the end of the current United States.

As Grofman puts it, “The most pessimistic scenario for a world in which California secedes from the United States is that the United States continues to break up.”

As ForumDaily wrote earlier:

  • In November, 2016, the Fusion edition, spoke about the initiative of the investor and co-founder of Hyperloop One, Shervin Pishevar, who proposed initiate California withdrawal from the US in response to Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election. His idea was supported by some influential businessmen from Silicon Valley. The social networks are running hashtags #Calexit and #Caleavefornia, in support of the campaign.
  • In January, 2017, Supporters of California’s withdrawal from the United States received permission from state authorities to collect signatures for conducting a referendum to change the Constitution of the region.
  • In January, 2018, a group of activists announced the creation of the state of New California and proclaimed its independence from California. The newly created “state” includes most of California, except for the coastal areas of the state. On the promotion of ideas at the legislative level then gave at least a year, but most likely more.
  • The arrival of Donald Trump in the White House, contrary to the forecasts of almost all opinion polls, was an unpleasant surprise for the leadership and residents of the state, with whom they could not accept more than a year after the elections. ForumDaily wrote about how California confronts Trump and the policies of his administration.

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