How will the elections in the USA end and what will change: three scenarios

The midterm elections in the United States promise to break turnout records and bring surprises. Their outcome will be decisive for the remaining two years of Donald Trump’s presidency and will affect the possible outcome of the “Russia investigation,” as well as the career of special counsel Robert Mueller.

Фото: Depositphotos

The elections have already started - early voting has begun in 35 of the 50 states, and another 15 polling stations will open in a few hours. In the meantime, Democrats on TV continue to promise “an economy for the people,” and Republicans scare viewers with the “socialist” sentiments of their opponents. The 44th President of the United States, Barack Obama, does not stop participating in election rallies for a day; the 45th President, Donald Trump, does not lag behind and sometimes manages to hold two or even three speeches.

The outcome of the expression of will will be a clear answer: who exactly is supported by the majority of US citizens - supporters of tax cuts, expulsion of immigrants and the construction of a wall with Mexico, or fighters for the rights of women and sexual minorities, opponents of mass deportations and adherents of gun control.

According to a study by SSRS, commissioned by CNN, 55% of voters are going to vote for Democrats. The gap with the Republicans is more than 10%—42% of respondents are ready to support President Donald Trump’s party. Moreover, according to SSRS, only 39% approve of Trump’s work, and 55% of respondents are dissatisfied with it. At the same time, in most states the gap between competing candidates is a couple of percentage points, a New York Times poll showed.

The election results will present surprises that American politics is famous for. Voting results can strike at both political parties, as well as on US foreign and domestic policy with an unexpected force.

This has been the case before: in 1994, during the reign of Bill Clinton, because of the passions surrounding allegations of corruption and the general course of his government, the Democrats lost 40-year control over the House of Representatives, and the power went to the Republicans.

In 2006, during the presidency of George W. Bush, the entire focus of the midterm elections was reduced to issues of war and peace. An external irritant was the growing unpopularity of the Iraqi military campaign, while an internal irritant was the way the White House dealt with the consequences of Hurricane Katrina. This was enough to create the perfect political storm that cost Republicans their majority in the House of Representatives.

The Russian service BBC calculated three possible scenarios for the development of election events-2018, each of which can change the situation not only in the USA, but also in the world.

1 Scenario: Democrats get majority in House of Representatives, Republicans retain Senate

With such a combination, the White House will face inevitable difficulties in adopting legislative initiatives that require the approval of both houses of parliament.

The good news for Trump is that he can still count on senators being more likely to approve his nominees for important government positions. In particular, the president will be able to calmly nominate any candidate for the post of US permanent representative to the UN - he or she will most likely be approved.

What will be the first solutions the democrats (steps announced by the leader of the current minority of the House of Representatives Nancy Palosi):

• the introduction of sexual and sexual orientation in the Act on the Protection of Civil Rights. According to the version of the current administration, the sex is determined by the birth certificate of a person, but not by his self-identification;
• compulsory release of Trump's tax returns;
• possible distribution of agendas not only to members of the Trump administration, but also to representatives of large technological corporations, whose influence in the United States is no less strong than that of oil-producing companies. Lawmakers will be interested in exclusively business and personal relations of officials and representatives of the private sector with their colleagues from Russia

Risks for Democrats when similar alignment of forces: according to an expert at the Brookings Institution, Professor Alina Polyakova, it is likely that the “Russian investigation” will become so important for the House of Representatives that legislators will begin to pay less attention to the issues of their own constituents and this could hit them hard in 2020, during the next elections.

Scenario #2: Winner takes all. The Republican Party has a majority in the Senate and House

Photo: facebook.com/WhiteHouse

The Trump administration benefits from this scenario in the first place. This strengthens the position of the Republicans as a whole, and the president personally. For the past two years, the party has experienced a marked split: Trump publicly criticized Republican senators and congressmen, who responded to him in return.

First steps of the winners:

• the possible abolition of the “right of the land” citizenship guaranteed by the US Constitution - according to the 14th Amendment, all children of immigrants born in the United States automatically receive American citizenship;
• tightening legislation in relation to “dreamers” - children of illegal immigrants brought to the country at a young age;
• the abolition of the medical insurance program for low-income Obamacare;
• The president has every chance of finally receiving money from Congress to build a wall between the United States and Mexico.

If the Republicans win, the proposed Russian intervention in the elections will remain an important item on the agenda, but he is likely to be separated from the alleged collusion of Trump's campaign headquarters with the Kremlin. Talk of a possible involvement of members of the presidential administration in this process, not to mention himself, subsides. The idea of ​​impeaching Trump gently buried.

According to Richard Weitz, head of the Center for Military and Policy Analysis at the Hudson Institute, it is quite possible that if the Republicans win, the president will fire US Attorney General Jeff Sessions and push for the dismissal of Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, who is overseeing the “Russia investigation.” In this case, the president will feel more confident and protected to go ahead and cover up the investigation of special counsel Robert Mueller.

Scenario # XXUMX: Jackpot. Democrats will get a majority in both houses

In such a scenario, the US president becomes a “lame duck” - this happened to many White House leaders whose political affiliation was polar to the legislative majority.

You should not count on the cooperation of the legislative assembly and the administration, which is likely to veto most of the initiatives of the congress.

The first steps of the Democrats:

• a more extensive investigation into possible Trump team’s collusion with the Kremlin and foreign interference in the 2016 election of the year;
• a possible attempt to impeach the current president;
• easing policies regarding chain immigration, “Dreamers,” and adult illegal migrants;
• changes in social policy regarding the issuance of benefits

The sanctions regime against Russia at the legislative level can also be strengthened.

Alina Polyakova insists: the “blue” jackpot scenario is the least realistic of all three. She said it will show changes in political demographics as traditionally Republican states begin to support Democratic candidates and vice versa. This election won't reveal much about the upcoming 2020 presidential race, but it will reveal the temperature and weather in the country, as well as the attitude of residents towards President Trump.

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