Former ideologue of Putin's party predicted Russia's loss in the war, its division and collapse

The well-known Russian political scientist Sergei Markov spoke about the likelihood of the collapse of the Russian state and why the elites are ready to accept any outcome of the war, reports BusinessGazeta.

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Sergei Markov is a Russian political scientist. Deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation of the 2007th convocation, member of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (2011–2012), member of the Civic Chamber of the Russian Federation of three compositions, confidant of Russian President Vladimir Putin (XNUMX). Founder, General Director of the Institute for Political Studies LLC, Candidate of Political Sciences.

Markov states that the special military operation, which was planned to be quick and effective, turned out to be neither quick nor effective and turned into a long-term military operation. He says that there are reports of tens of thousands of deaths from Ukraine and Russia, but in fact, he believes, there are probably already hundreds of thousands of deaths.

“If we are defeated in the conflict with Ukraine, then the war could go to the territory of Russia with the threat of occupation of the country, dividing it into several parts, up to the collapse of Russian statehood,” political scientist Markov predicts the negative development of the situation for the Russian Federation.

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In geopolitical terms, according to Markov, Russia is not making a transition to a multipolar world, but, on the contrary, a reboot of the unipolar world, a significant strengthening of the United States, which has shown its enormous power, efficiency, and ability to control political regimes.

Western civilization today is more than ever consolidated around the United States. “Russia turned out to be weak,” he said. “In fact, the Americans defeated the Russian army at the hands of the Ukrainians in many places.”

Markov says that in the eyes of the whole world, the Russian army has actually lost its status as the second army in the world, if you do not take nuclear weapons, that it is assessed as extremely inefficient and incapable of solving combat missions.

At the same time, in Ukraine there has been a huge qualitative shift in attitude towards Russia, according to Markov. “If earlier anti-Russian sentiments in Ukrainian society amounted to 10 percent, then under the influence of propaganda they became 15 percent, and then 20–25 percent, but after the start of the SVO they reached about 70–80 percent. There was a consolidation of the Ukrainian political regime on an anti-Russian basis. This is also a catastrophic consequence,” he says.

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Statements that Russia has many allies, which come from officials and deputies, also do not correspond to reality, and this is a miscalculation. “We did not expect at all that China would take hypertrophied neutrality. We wanted Beijing to take a more allied position. But he took a more neutral position. Why have so many other countries taken this position? The main reason is that Russia is not winning. Nobody wants to become an ally of someone who is defeated,” says Markov.

The main risk, according to the political scientist, is defeat in the military conflict in Ukraine. “Russia has already taken several steps towards its defeat. First, the failure of a special military operation in terms of taking control of most of the territory of Ukraine. Russia is making necessary decisions such as military mobilization and economic mobilization with a huge delay. The mobilization of society has not been done at all. There is a threat of slowing down the country’s modernization,” says Markov.

The war itself, according to Markov, was not a mistake. But Russian President Vladimir Putin "made a mistake not to send troops to Ukraine in 2014 or 2015," he said.

“This was the main mistake. And all the talk that we were not ready is just a fairy tale. It was the Ukrainian regime that was not ready for such resistance as it is today,” he said.

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The Russian elites don't believe in anything, as Markov says. This is the main problem, he says.

“Cynicism, fundamental anti-ideology - this is what characterizes them. The elites are ready to accept both victory and defeat. They don’t believe in anything,” he said.

“We didn’t have a purge of elites. And it needs to be done. If you do nothing, a split will occur. Moreover, there are many potential traitors in the elites. It is no coincidence that after mobilization was announced, many family members of the Russian elite, unlike the elitists themselves, went abroad. But so far there is no split in the elites,” Markov said.

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